Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,541
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

Rtd208
 Share

Recommended Posts

Attached D1 rainfall via CoCoRaHs for your comparisons. Click for clarity. Will add D2,3,4 and total D1-4 as future days complete. 

Suppose there will be drying aloft that may negate much of the heavier rains tonight-Wed night but PWAT nwwd push of around 1.5" continues til the remains of Joslyn RH arrives from the southwest. Note I see no comment NWS on this dissipating Joslyn embedded moisture band ahead of the cleansing cold frontal passage Wed night, so it's probably at worst a nominal contribution. 

Heaviest rain in our area so far through 8AM EDT Monday Oct 24, appears to be central NJ. Wantage about 0.17 and increasing. 

 

The future: after drying out Thursday for a nice Fri-Sat-early Sunday (Oct 28-30), then I think we can look forward to what appears to be one or 2 significant 1+ rain events for the area between Halloween and Saturday night Nov 5. EPS/GEPS continue prior days suggestions. 

DEP NYC reservoir data has not updated since Oct 14. 

Screen Shot 2022-10-24 at 9.04.13 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-24 at 9.04.38 AM.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

a pinhole?

how are they getting pumpkins to be this huge? I remember a few years ago we didn't even have a 1000 pound pumpkin.

The first 1000 pounder was 1996, so it's been a little while now, but still incredible advances over a fairly short period. It's probably the most focused breeding program in history. Thousands of growers selecting almost exclusively for size, year after year.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Juliancolton said:

The first 1000 pounder was 1996, so it's been a little while now, but still incredible advances over a fairly short period. It's probably the most focused breeding program in history. Thousands of growers selecting almost exclusively for size, year after year.

The ex-guitarist for Faith No More after leaving the band was growing 1000 pound+ pumpkins and winning contests in the early to mid 2000s.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

0.78" rain here as of 1PM and we've had some good downpours since.  Total for October through 1PM 6.07".  Had 4.36" in September, 2.89" in August, 2.53" in July and 3.44" in June.

It was "dry-ish" over the summer, but really not very droughty IMBY.  I know the south shore was a different story.

Thankfully we’ve made a good comeback down south. Several downpours today. Guesstimate just under 1”. That’s what she said…..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although the ongoing system has generally produced less rainfall than modeled, a few locations saw more than 0.50" of rain. Through 5 pm, Philadelphia had picked up 0.72" today. Islip had received 1.16".

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. Additional showers are possible. Wednesday will be another warm day.

With the MJO having come out of Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures.

November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +22.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.664 today.

On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.535 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.386 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.2° (0.7° below normal).

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although the ongoing system has generally produced less rainfall than modeled, a few locations saw more than 0.50" of rain. Through 5 pm, Philadelphia had picked up 0.72" today. Islip had received 1.16".

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warmer. Additional showers are possible. Wednesday will be another warm day.

With the MJO having come out of Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures.

November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +22.75 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.664 today.

On October 22 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.535 (RMM). The October 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.386 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.2° (0.7° below normal).

 

Looks like November will flip back to warmer than normal, Don?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and drizzle. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 71°

Cooler air could return late in the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.7°; 15-Year: 63.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.8°; 15-Year: 64.0°

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s the way it currently looks. Whether it turns colder late in the month remains to be seen.

I'd rather that wait until December, a mild November followed by a cold December is a really good sign for winter isn't it?  I wonder if October will finish right near normal?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...