marsman Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 23 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I think it's safe to say we won't be seeing another Ian ever. Have to be getting low on I names at this point. 20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Gotta start pulling out all the obscure Arabic names I say we go back to using the Greek Alphabet. If we go over, use AA, AB, AC, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 31 minutes ago, Tezeta said: We don’t fund education, especially in hurricane prone states. These are the same places that are told the media is full of lies and that things like sea level rise and juiced hurricanes are a myth. It’s getting worse and worse. Expect more disasters like this where people don’t listen and just yap on social media about their surprise neighborhood destruction. 5 bunned by a bunch of dummies, but doesn’t stop this from being correct. 7 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: IDk. When have local or nationional news NOT harped on the seriousness of the situation? One could argue the "boy who called wolf effect" that accompanies so many storms is the culprut. I am sure it happens. I am not in FL so I have no idea what local news was saying when compared to NHC. But I do know there have been instances locally in my area where there was a breakdown of sorts from Gov Agencies to local agencies and the media and people were 'caught off guard' and blamed NWS for failure to communicate the risks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 31 minutes ago, MANDA said: As bad as some of these pictures are I don't think this is the worst of it. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11261707/Monster-Hurricane-Ian-devastates-Florida-leaving-2million-without-power-trapped-homes.html Yeah…..we aren’t seeing the worst of it. This is going to be like some of the high-end canes in the past. Whereas we don’t see the worst until like the Day 3 range when they start to get to those areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 I assume the FSU Super Ensemble is no more? It was a model that 'learned' from past biases shown in various models and then weighted the models that performed the best highest is creating the ensemble. I get the impression the TVCN is just an ensemble. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t. i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too. And let’s go back to the 1950’s and early 1960’s….hurricanes everywhere..and all over New England at that. I think the point is that its lazy to characterize every strong storm, every heatwave, every strong winter storm as climate change related. And that is a fair point. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Ian is now fully back over water, at least in terms of the center. Already some deeper convection starting to fire near the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Just now, floridapirate said: I think the point is that its lazy to characterize every strong storm, every heatwave, every strong winter storm as climate change related. And that is a fair point. climate change wasn't the point at all. distrust in the media was the point. 8 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: 5 bunned by a bunch of dummies, but doesn’t stop this from being correct. It's 100% correct which is why everyone's so triggered. They don't want to face that reality. But my pushback is that storms like this have happened before so any isolated event needs to be looked at carefully and not lumped into a broader narrative. I think it's honestly more concerning that people continue to build heavily in obvious death trap regions like Cape Coral. How is that crap even legal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t. i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too. And let’s go back to the 1950’s and early 1960’s….hurricanes everywhere..and all over New England at that. I'd argue that we are seeing a trend toward higher precip amounts in tropical systems. That doesn't mean it will happen with every storm, but the frequency of absurd rainfall totals seems to be increasing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 43 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: To be fair, Ian never once strayed outside the cone as far as landfall point (looking back at the graphics archive). I think there's a lot to be done in terms of communicating probability of different on the ground impacts. The general public has a hard time grasping what to expect. Communicating risk is a huge part of it. 33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: the earlier posts of just warning the whole cone would do far more harm than good. I'm not saying this to be a smartass -- do you have any hard data or studies to support this? Genuinely curious. My opinion and experience (which doesn't mean a thing) is that the majority of people will react reasonably given they understand the situation they're facing, and the outliers will always do whatever they want, they're effectively unreachable. But I'm absolutely open to challenging and changing that position if warranted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drummer Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 at what point does the banter thread come into play around here? 18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: No! It’s not getting worse. Are you for real?? So what about the Labor Day 1935 monster Caine in Florida?? Or the monster that destroyed SNE in 1938? Oh wait…what about Camille 53 yrs ago? Just stop with that complete BS. Disastrous storms happen from time to time, and in different places around the country and the world. It’s always been that way, and it always will. Thats it in a nutshell. the 1938 SNE storm wasn't even tropical at landfall 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 54 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol when you always go worst case scenario, sometimes you’re right. A la a case of the blind squirrel finds a nut now and then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Drummer said: at what point does the banter thread come into play around here? Yeah, where are the admins? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 minute ago, floridapirate said: I think the point is that its lazy to characterize every strong storm, every heatwave, every strong winter storm as climate change related. And that is a fair point. Live near the ocean, it is fair to expect a big storm to possibly destroy your life no matter where you are for the most part. No different than the people sipping coffee right now living on fault lines on the west coast. It is playing with fire no matter what. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Should we blame the hurricanes from colonial times on global warming too? These storms have gotten worse because people are refusing to listen to warnings and evacuate. The surge is the killer. We saw it with Katrina, Sandy and now likely Ian. Floridaians especially have become complaicent because luckily major hurricane strikes are infrequent. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t. i just gave him 3 quick examples that were every bit as bad that ranged from 50-to almost a 100 yrs ago. Those storms were juiced too. And let’s go back to the 1950’s and early 1960’s….hurricanes everywhere..and all over New England at that. do you think this didn't contribute to ian's strengthening right before landfall? come on 11 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: the 1938 SNE storm wasn't even tropical at landfall It was a Cat 3 hurricane at LF. Was previously a Cat 5. https://web.archive.org/web/20140925140913/http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 this totally isn't contributing to stronger storms 5 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said: Communicating risk is a huge part of it. I'm not saying this to be a smartass -- do you have any hard data or studies to support this? Genuinely curious. My opinion and experience (which doesn't mean a thing) is that the majority of people will react reasonably given they understand the situation they're facing, and the outliers will always do whatever they want, they're effectively unreachable. But I'm absolutely open to challenging and changing that position if warranted. Well obviously we have never really done that, so no. But think about it. Imagine warning a whole cone with 10s of millions of people needing to evacuate when maybe 10% experience hurricane conditions worthy of evacuating. The congestion on the highways......where are these people going to stay and go to? Who can accommodate such a mass exodus? And then there is the fall out regarding boy whole cried wolf syndrome. That is not science at all. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: Should we blame the hurricanes from colonial times on global warming too? These storms have gotten worse because people are refusing to listen to warnings and evacuate. The surge is the killer. We saw it with Katrina, Sandy and now likely Ian. Floridaians especially have become complaicent because luckily major hurricane strikes are infrequent. The complacency and hubris is the killer. Yeah let's just build a city partially underwater. Let's build floating neighborhoods in a known hurricane region. But blocking patterns and warmer sea surface temperatures have elevated surge/flooding. Hurricanes peaking before landfall like Michael was unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: I am sure it happens. I am not in FL so I have no idea what local news was saying when compared to NHC. But I do know there have been instances locally in my area where there was a breakdown of sorts from Gov Agencies to local agencies and the media and people were 'caught off guard' and blamed NWS for failure to communicate the risks. I'm not in Florida either so IDK what the local news was saying. But having lived in SE Louisiana most of my life, local news and government always trumpeted the worse possible scenario. So much so that when the big one actually did come, many were shocked at what the real deal can bring. I think social media plays a part in this too. How many times have we all rolled our eyes at people posting those 2' snowstorm 5-day model runs on Facebook and such that rarely verifies? Or the 200mph 3K NAM for a hurricane? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: the 1938 SNE storm wasn't even tropical at landfall Not to go too far down this rabbit hole but “not tropical” doesn’t make it less severe. The most devastating part of any storm tropical or not is the surge, and “not tropical” Sandy was horrendous on that end as was 1938 and Fiona which just hit Canada. That’s another bias people need to get out of their head. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 this shouldn't be allowed 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 WRT to the next significant TC threat to Tampa Bay metro, sure there is a "cry wolf" variable but most people are able to understand imminent threats to life and property and will act accordingly, especially those most exposed or vulnerable. There is always a slice of the populace, in TB and everywhere, that is skeptical or jaded towards threats from natural forces and will consider it a badge of pride to resist calls to evacuate or even prepare. And there may be more people not in direct peril that reconsider leaving the next time. But there won't be a massive contingent of people refusing to evacuate the next time TB is in the cone a few days out from a significant TC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Yeah…..we aren’t seeing the worst of it. This is going to be like some of the high-end canes in the past. Whereas we don’t see the worst until like the Day 3 range when they start to get to those areas. Which unfortunately makes a triple digit death toll plausible. Let's hope it's not multiple hundreds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: this shouldn't be allowed This. Just a disaster waiting to happen. Even a small tsunami will take all of that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this shouldn't be allowed Especially if there is ANY assistance in rebuilding it. Self insured only. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: I'm not in Florida either so IDK what the local news was saying. But having lived in SE Louisiana most of my life, local news and government always trumpeted the worse possible scenario. So much so that when the big one actually did come, many were shocked at what the real deal can bring. I think social media plays a part in this too. How many times have we all rolled our eyes at people posting those 2' snowstorm 5-day model runs on Facebook and such that rarely verifies? Or the 200mph 3K NAM for a hurricane? Which was mentioned in the post that set this conversation off. Social media is terrible. Muddies the information and causes distrust elsewhere. 3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: In the middle of the banter. yall will be okay. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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