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August 2022


Rtd208
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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly  cloudy and very warm.  A shower or thundershower is possible. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 91°

Philadelphia: 91°

The remainder of August will likely see generally warmer than normal conditions.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 83.8°; 15-Year: 83.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 84.6°

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The last 8 days of August are averaging  83degs.(75/91) or +8.

Month to date is  79.1[+2.5].        August should end at  80.1[+4.0].

Reached 88 here late yesterday.

Today:  87-92, wind w., m. sunny, 73 tomorrow AM.

72*(85%RH) here at 7am.       76* at 9am.        80* at Noon.        85*(47%RH) at 3pm.       86* at 3:30pm.       Reached 87*(52%RH) at 4pm, feels like 90.

80* at 8pm.

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13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

Can you list the years of the 8 cases? Just curious if tropical systems or remnants of systems came into play.

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81 / 64 and looking like another great day for last summer. Likely some 90s the next 3 or so days or through Fri (8/26).   Overall warm to hot at times through the end of the month.  Some storms may pop up Fri and Sun.  Ecm has a trough com through Sep 2 and lift out by labor day.  Tropics remain on most guidance to some degree in the early sep timeframe.

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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We're also fighting climo. 90s are harder to come by as we enter September.

We have hit 100° in late August and early September when the patterns have supported extreme heat. Numerous mid to upper 90s in recent years. So this year all our top 3 warmest heat was focused from late July into early August.

Newark top 3 daily highs from late August into early September

8/25 97 in 1993 96 in 2021 96 in 1948+
8/26 103 in 1948 97 in 2021 97 in 1993
8/27 100 in 1993 99 in 1948 96 in 2021+
8/28 102 in 1948 100 in 1993 100 in 1973+
8/29 100 in 1953 97 in 1948 96 in 2018+
8/30 100 in 1953 98 in 1973 96 in 1991
8/31 102 in 1953 98 in 2010 97 in 1973
9/1 98 in 2010 96 in 1953 95 in 1980+
9/2 105 in 1953 98 in 1980 97 in 1944
9/3 100 in 1993 95 in 2018 95 in 2015
9/4 95 in 2018 95 in 1973 95 in 1964
9/5 94 in 1985 94 in 1961 92 in 1973
9/6 98 in 2018 97 in 1983 95 in 2014
9/7 95 in 2015 93 in 2010 92 in 1945
9/8 98 in 2015 94 in 1939 93 in 2010+
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31 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Looks like we tied the record high of 88 on Long Island today. I’m a little shocked that was the record and not higher. 

I’m surprised there’s a record high of 80-anything between June and September in this region.

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1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I think farmingdale record high was 88 which was tied today. 
 

I have the MSN weather client on my desktop and it alerted me to that 

 

Oh ok, they must have not updated that site because it hit 91 on this day last year at FRG. But then again, FRG's period of record only starts in 1999

frg.PNG.694d0ea6912fea84d60529c8fa8d89ae.PNG

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Record high of 91° tied at Islip.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
445 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 WAS TIED AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1969.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Record high of 91° tied at Islip.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
445 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2022

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT ISLIP NY...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 WAS TIED AT ISLIP NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1969.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE 
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

 

Hit 91 here as well.

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Temperatures in the region reached the upper 80s and lower 90s. New York City, Newark, and New York City all reached 90°. The remainder of August will likely see generally above normal temperatures. Additional 90° or above days are possible in parts of the region.

At Tampa, the mercury reached 95°. That tied the daily record set in 1975 and tied in 2014 and 2019. More impressively, it was Tampa's 25th such temperature this year. That broke the longstanding annual record of 24 days, which had stood since 1990. With Tampa's 30-year mean summer temperature having exceeded 82.5°, more than half of recent summers have exceeded the 90th percentile for heat.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +5.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.786 today.

On August 22 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.237 (RMM). The August 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.078 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (2.9° above normal).

 

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