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August 2022


Rtd208
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85 / 66 and now mostly cloudy after a partly sunny moring.  Should see some breaks in the clouds and get more sun in the afternoon.  Trough pushes front through later tonight and Mon (8/22) and into Tue (8/23).  Best shot of widespread 0.76 or grater rainfall.  Mets/ Yanks rain out?  By Wed (8/24) its warmer again and the usual hot spots more chances of 90, wet park could be capped below 90 till it dries out.  Overall warm to hot at times and humid  last 10 days of the month with more rain chances (not hard vs the recent dryness and missed opportunities).  

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15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'm scared of the rgem

Hi-Res looks better.  I think things pretty much on track for widespread 1/2" to 1" NNJ into NYC and L.I.  Some will do better than 1" but I think most everyone gets to the 1/2".  We need it!  We miss out on this and we're skunked for another week.

 

 

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Unsettled weather is likely early this week. Showers and thundershowers will bring some welcome relief from the emergent drought. Much of the region will likely see total rainfall of 0.50"-1.00" with locally higher amounts through Tuesday.

Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +3.88 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.438 today.

On August 19 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.608 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.492 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.6° (2.5° above normal).

 

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Severe weather is not expected at this time. However, the proximity
of the warm front, high helicity values, and 0-3 km shear values of
over 40 kt could lend to an isolated tornado, which if it did
occur, would occur where the heavier rain showers start to move
in as mentioned previously. Climatologically speaking, the warm
front moving through the area lends to an increased threat for
tornado development.
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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Not sold on this at least area wide. Models generally look meh especially east of the Hudson. Any rain is more than welcome but outside of a couple lucky spots I doubt it makes any dent. 

It will take a tropical system to bring some drought relief area wide with how large the current rainfall deficit is.

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly  to mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Heavy downpours are possible. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 84°

Tomorrow will see additional showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.8°; 15-Year: 82.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 84.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 84.9°

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The next 8 days are averaging  82degs.(74/91) or +7.

Month to date is  79.2[+2.5].        Should be  80.0[+3.8] by the 30th.

Reached 81 here yesterday.

Today:  80-84, wind e., cloudy, rain 0.5"-1.0" from 10am-5pm-part of total on Tues., 72 tomorrow AM.

Want rain?     Dallas had up to 8" last night and 6" more is coming during the next three days-then heat is back for them.

75*(98%RH) here at 7am, drizzle.      78* at 9am.       Down to 75* at Noon.      78* at 1pm.        81* around 3pm.

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The rain looks broken/scattered and I doubt many of us even get the 0.5”. Looks like a small part of Ocean County got 2-3” or so. 

Yeah, it won’t take much for the 90° heat to return in a few days with how dry it has been.

0A6837A6-84A4-40FC-8DA3-F7809F0E563F.thumb.png.96e5090e5747ec17d0c12242eda65a12.png

D18E9483-817A-4617-AE3E-EAA1A36FED72.thumb.png.452afe62701261edca068d7190c64b86.png

 

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