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August 2022


Rtd208
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The next 8 days are averaging  83degs.(75/92) or +8.

Month to date is  79.1[+2.4].            Should be 80.1[+4.0] by the 31st.

Reached 81 here yesterday with very little rain and a few distant rumbles.

Today:  81-86, wind w. to nw., p. cloudy, 72 tomorrow AM.

YOU'RE ALL UNDER ARREST:        btw:   The laggard near the Bahamas grows to destroy the S.E., maybe Double Indemnity for them.

1662228000-0nnhhkbVSqg.png

73*(98%RH) here at 7am, variable low level fog.      75* at 9am, Fog about 1mi.        78* at Noon.       81*(77%RH) at 2pm, feels like 86.      84*(65%RH) at 5pm, feels like 89.        Reached 88*(53%RH) bet. 6-7pm, felt like 92.

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Newark is still pretty close to the top for the driest summer on record at just under 5 inches. Several spots out across the Long Island South Shore are also this dry. So this most recent rainfall event continued the theme of only widely scattered heavier totals. It will probably take a tropical system in the fall to get widespread soaking rains. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 4.43 9
2 1966 4.46 0
3 1949 5.68 0
4 1957 5.69 0
5 1965 5.83 0
6 1963 6.18 0
7 1993 6.20 0
8 1953 6.47 0
9 2010 6.74 0
10 1999 6.93 0


 

MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 4.85
MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 5.35
WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.53


 

BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 3.80
SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 3.85
PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 3.90
ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.94
BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.02
SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.07
COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.18
BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.28
ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 4.29
SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 4.41
WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 4.54
FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 4.57
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 4.60
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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark is still pretty close to the top for the driest summer on record at just under 5 inches. Several spots out across the Long Island South Shore are also this dry. So this most recent rainfall event continued the theme of only widely scattered heavier totals. It will probably take a tropical system in the fall to get widespread soaking rains. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 4.43 9
2 1966 4.46 0
3 1949 5.68 0
4 1957 5.69 0
5 1965 5.83 0
6 1963 6.18 0
7 1993 6.20 0
8 1953 6.47 0
9 2010 6.74 0
10 1999 6.93 0


 

MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 4.85
MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 5.35
WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.53


 

BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 3.80
SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 3.85
PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 3.90
ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.94
BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.02
SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.07
COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 4.18
BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 4.28
ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 4.29
SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 4.41
WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 4.54
FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 4.57
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 4.60

What does missing count mean? 2022 says 9 compared to every other year of 0

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The amount of shear and lack of development in the Atlantic so far is more like the super El Niño in 82-83 than a La Niña. It will be interesting to see how much of an increase in activity there is as we approach the peak of the season in September. It may take tropical activity here to finally begin reducing the drought conditions. 
 

 

 

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Usually I look at the pseg li outage map to get a general idea of a storms severity when they happen.

 

But I have noticed that there's been a large number of underground cable failures this year/ lately.  The Hamptons area in general I've seen many cable failures, with another one today.  Could be pure coincidence, or bad luck,  could be increased demand/strain on cables,  could be age, etc.  Just a side note. 

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27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro & GFS are showing more tropical development in the longer range so this quiet will break eventually.

However yes its been unusually quiet and very anti-Nina.

I think using base ENSO states to determine what the season will be no longer applies in the AGW era. 

Maybe the winter can also be anti Nina but I think we know how that will turn out. :axe: 

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I chose a great place to retire (maybe not), we have had the hottest June, July and August on record here in the past two years (June and July last year, August this year). So far running 4 C (7 F) above normal this month, almost every day has hit some value between 95F and 102F. That was the heat that was supposed to drift further east but ended up parking over top of western Canada and the Pac NW all summer (early June was cool/wet so the fire situation has not ramped up the way it did last year). And of course in 2021 we had the heat dome (June 26 to July 3 here) and an all-time daily maximum record of 113 F (44.8 C) on June 30th. July last year stayed very hot all month and ended up 5.3 C deg above normal (25.7 C). We have relatively cool nights so the hotter months average well into the mid-30s C or around 95-96 F.

That's a big anomaly for a summer month in a warm climate zone. Except for a few pockets further west, this is about the hottest and driest place in Canada in the summer (near the Columbia valley where the river crosses into WA state). 

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1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

I chose a great place to retire (maybe not), we have had the hottest June, July and August on record here in the past two years (June and July last year, August this year). So far running 4 C (7 F) above normal this month, almost every day has hit some value between 95F and 102F. That was the heat that was supposed to drift further east but ended up parking over top of western Canada and the Pac NW all summer (early June was cool/wet so the fire situation has not ramped up the way it did last year). And of course in 2021 we had the heat dome (June 26 to July 3 here) and an all-time daily maximum record of 113 F (44.8 C) on June 30th. July last year stayed very hot all month and ended up 5.3 C deg above normal (25.7 C). We have relatively cool nights so the hotter months average well into the mid-30s C or around 95-96 F.

That's a big anomaly for a summer month in a warm climate zone. Except for a few pockets further west, this is about the hottest and driest place in Canada in the summer (near the Columbia valley where the river crosses into WA state). 

Yeah, the Northern Hemisphere land areas are steadily warming during the summers. The Western sections of North America and the Northeast US are among the fastest warming parts of our continent. The rate of warming is even higher in Europe. 

 

 

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Temperatures rebounded into the middle and upper 80s today with the return of sunshine. The remainder of August will likely see generally above normal temperatures. Addional 90° or above days ae possible in parts of the region.

Out West, Salt Lake City reached 100° for the 25th time this year. The old record was 21 days. That record was set in 1960 and tied in 1994 and 2021. During 1961-1990, Salt Lake City averaged 5.2 100° days per year. During 1991-2020, that figure had increased to 7.6 days. The most recent 30-year period (1993-2022) is averaging 8.9 such days per year.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +16.81 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.713 today.

On August 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.079 (RMM). The August 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.826 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.9° (2.8° above normal).

 

 

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