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August 2022


Rtd208
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78 / 64 , some showers and clouds into EPA/ NW NJ should clear out in the next hour.  Upper 80s low 90s for the warmer spots.  Sun (8/21) could see clouds and onshore flow move in before trough pushes a front through on Mon (8/22).  Mon into Tue (8/23) best shot at rain since the last best shot, widespread 0.75 / 2 inches of rain (lets see).  Beyond there Wed (8/24) - Sat (8/27) warmer to  - hot, more shot at 90s for the warmer / drier spots.  Monday rains could mute 90 degree heat in the park.  Overall warm to hot at times the last 10 days of August.  Rain chances Mon / Tue and the week of 8/29.

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The actual number of 90° days in Central Park is probably closer to 30 away from the deep shade trees around the castle. NYC used to almost always have 30 days of 90° when Newark reached 40 days. This was when the equipment was out in the open instead of under the trees. The years before the tree growth took off after 2002 featured NYC running much closer to Newark with just 10 or fewer 90° days. This number has increased to 18-24 fewer days since 2016. I am a bit surprised the big media outlets in NYC haven’t taken notice of this growing differential in their weather reports. They would realize how inaccurate the NYC high temperatures have become.
 


Years before tree growth bolded 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
NYC  90° Days 
1 2010 54 37….-17
2 1993 49 39…-10
3 1988 43 32….-11
4 2022 42 20….-22
5 2021 41 17….-24
- 2002 41 32….-9
- 1991 41 39….-2
8 2016 40 22….-18
- 1983 40 36…..-4
- 1959 40 27……-13
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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Can only laugh at this point

 

qpf_acc.us_ne (10).png

Hopefully this won't be a start of a trend of the models taking away our potential significant rain event. I see RGEM cut back on the 12z run too, now showing the bigger rain amounts staying to the southwest. Knowing that every potential event has fallen apart during this horrible drought, it certainly wouldn't be surprising if it happens again.

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14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hopefully this won't be a start of a trend of the models taking away our potential significant rain event. I see RGEM cut back on the 12z run too, now showing the bigger rain amounts staying to the southwest. Knowing that every potential event has fallen apart during this horrible drought, it certainly wouldn't be surprising if it happens again.

Very early to be using short range models, but I get the skepticism 

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hopefully this won't be a start of a trend of the models taking away our potential significant rain event. I see RGEM cut back on the 12z run too, now showing the bigger rain amounts staying to the southwest. Knowing that every potential event has fallen apart during this horrible drought, it certainly wouldn't be surprising if it happens again.

And the gfs has heavier amounts to the north but still get .75" give or take 

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16 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Looking steady on guidance for a 0.75 or > type event.  We'll see how it progresses.

If Newark can pull off .75, then it will be the first time since June 9th. 
 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ

Date, Precipitation
2022-06-01, 0.54
2022-06-02, 0.15
2022-06-03, T
2022-06-04, 0.00
2022-06-05, 0.00
2022-06-06, 0.00
2022-06-07, 0.05
2022-06-08, 0.02
2022-06-09, 0.78
2022-06-10, 0.00
2022-06-11, T
2022-06-12, 0.06
2022-06-13, 0.00
2022-06-14, T
2022-06-15, 0.00
2022-06-16, 0.39
2022-06-17, 0.00
2022-06-18, 0.00
2022-06-19, 0.00
2022-06-20, 0.00
2022-06-21, 0.05
2022-06-22, 0.07
2022-06-23, T
2022-06-24, 0.00
2022-06-25, 0.00
2022-06-26, 0.00
2022-06-27, 0.29
2022-06-28, 0.00
2022-06-29, 0.00
2022-06-30, 0.00
2022-07-01, T
2022-07-02, 0.00
2022-07-03, 0.00
2022-07-04, 0.00
2022-07-05, 0.04
2022-07-06, 0.00
2022-07-07, 0.00
2022-07-08, 0.12
2022-07-09, 0.00
2022-07-10, 0.00
2022-07-11, 0.00
2022-07-12, 0.00
2022-07-13, 0.00
2022-07-14, 0.00
2022-07-15, 0.00
2022-07-16, 0.09
2022-07-17, 0.06
2022-07-18, 0.07
2022-07-19, 0.00
2022-07-20, 0.00
2022-07-21, 0.01
2022-07-22, 0.00
2022-07-23, 0.00
2022-07-24, 0.00
2022-07-25, 0.03
2022-07-26, 0.00
2022-07-27, 0.00
2022-07-28, 0.12
2022-07-29, 0.01
2022-07-30, T
2022-07-31, T
2022-08-01, 0.43
2022-08-02, 0.00
2022-08-03, 0.00
2022-08-04, T
2022-08-05, T
2022-08-06, 0.00
2022-08-07, 0.04
2022-08-08, 0.00
2022-08-09, T
2022-08-10, 0.00
2022-08-11, 0.15
2022-08-12, 0.00
2022-08-13, 0.00
2022-08-14, 0.00
2022-08-15, 0.00
2022-08-16, 0.00
2022-08-17, 0.11
2022-08-18, 0.00
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Some scattered storms around the area now as is expected with the slight uptick in humidity levels. But Central Park is on the edge of notching their 21st 90 degree day of the season. I'm finding it easy to see the Park getting to 25 maybe more than that by sometime in September. After today the next possible 90 in the Park being Thursday the 25th with an even better chance Friday the 26th.

WX/PT

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