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August 2022


Rtd208
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3 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Been pouring on and off with that cell over northern Morris county for a better part of an hour.  Nearby stations over .50" with more to come.

The convection riding north of l-80 and the LIE has been really consistent this summer. 

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FUJIWAHARA STRIKES USA!         POSSIBLE?      If the left one doesn't get you----the right one will:      $200 OIL?    The SOR is at 1986 levels due to current non weather events.        The centers are the right distance apart at nearly 1,000 miles.

 

gfs_ow850_atl_64.png

But Florida pulls through in a breeze!

1662400800-S45Sp17VLE0.png

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Cooler air will begin to move into the region tomorrow. Early next week will see some unsettled weather with showers and thundershowers.

Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was -4.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.644 today.

On August 18 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.495 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.480 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.5° (2.4° above normal).

 

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Some good model agreement overnight for some much needed rainfall for most of this forum.  Best amounts 1"+ look to focus over NNJ.  Period of interest from late afternoon into this evening and then again Monday afternoon into Monday evening.  Best chances we've seen this close to "show time" in quite a while.

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Still a top 3 warmest summer from SE PA into New England with 10 days to go. Several stations have had 3 consecutive top 5 warmest summers since 2020. So a continuation of our much warmer summers pattern since 2010.
 

Time Series Summary for LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2020 76.3 0
2 2021 76.2 0
3 2022 75.8 11
4 2011 75.7 0
5 2018 75.4 0
- 2005 75.4 2


 

Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 79.6 0
2 2022 79.2 11
3 2016 78.8 0
4 1995 78.5 0
5 2020 78.3 0
- 1994 78.3 0


 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 76.3 0
2 2022 76.1 13
- 1900 76.1 0
3 2005 75.9 0
4 1898 75.8 0
5 2020 75.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 76.7 12
2 2020 76.5 4
3 1999 76.3 7
4 2010 76.1 2
5 2021 75.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 79.2 11
- 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2021 78.3 0
5 2011 78.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 74.7 0
2 2020 74.6 0
3 2022 74.5 11
- 1999 74.5 0
4 2016 74.4 0
5 2011 73.9 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 75.4 11
2 2020 74.9 2
3 2010 74.3 0
4 2021 74.2 0
5 2019 74.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 71.0 11
- 2021 71.0 2
2 1978 69.0 0
3 2020 68.8 0
4 2015 68.7 0
- 2010 68.7 0
- 1949 68.7 0
5 2012 68.3 1
- 1975 68.3 0
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The next 8 days are averaging  82degs.(75/89) or +7.

Month to date is  79.4[+2.6].        Should be  80.1[+3.9] by the 29th.

Reached just 83 here yesterday.

Today: 82-86, wind se., clouds late, 72 tomorrow AM.

Double_Vision hurricanes of yesterday are gone---along with any other flare-ups.

74*(98%RH) here at 7am, variable low level fog.        75* at 8am.        79* at Noon.       81*(79%RH) at 3pm, feels like 86.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and somewhat cooler. A few locations could see a shower or thundershower. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 85°

Philadelphia: 88°

Tomorrow and Tuesday will see showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain will be heavy.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 82.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.4°; 15-Year: 85.1°

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Models look pretty good for rain chances tomorrow. An area wide 0.5-1.0" is possible, however, convective precip can favor some areas more than other areas. Most models have at least 0.25" for the entire region. It's entirely possible some areas see a good amount of rain while some areas stay with lower amounts. Some areas could see a couple inches. Either way, the chances of rain are very high for tomorrow.

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