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August 2022


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Newark moves into 4th place on the 90° day list.


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 54 0
2 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2022 42 135
5 2021 41 0
- 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
6 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0

 

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The tropics finally become more active on the extended EPS from late August into early September. But the storms look to exit Africa pretty far north away from the drier air to the south. Any systems would need a strong enough ridge to the north to avoid an early recurve. There is also the potential for closer in development north of 20N. A tropical system is probably what it would take to begin reducing the drought. Scattered frontal convection can only do so much. Unless it’s a more organized system like mid-August 2011.

 

989A9589-9D97-4431-A068-3DC9D41CEDE0.thumb.png.04326c1df38718eb4be8d2c8ca300d5c.png

 

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very easy to do in this SW desert type of climate

The low humidity makes it much more tolerable though 

Yeah the 93 here right now doesn't feel bad at all with the dewpoint of 50. Very nice outside.

 

But I'm hoping the higher dewpoints that will will be coming in sunday will help us finally see some widespread downpours sunday night and monday.

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We may get just enough rain on Monday for Newark to fall into 2nd place on the driest summer list. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 3.68 13
2 1966 4.46 0
3 1949 5.68 0
4 1957 5.69 0
5 1965 5.83 0
6 1963 6.18 0
7 1993 6.20 0
8 1953 6.47 0
9 2010 6.74 0
10 1999 6.93 0
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I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

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54 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

Summer seems to be lasting well into October these days.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We may get just enough rain on Monday for Newark to fall into 2nd place on the driest summer list. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 3.68 13
2 1966 4.46 0
3 1949 5.68 0
4 1957 5.69 0
5 1965 5.83 0
6 1963 6.18 0
7 1993 6.20 0
8 1953 6.47 0
9 2010 6.74 0
10 1999 6.93 0

 

Looking steady on guidance for a 0.75 or > type event.  We'll see how it progresses.

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Tomorrow will be another very warm day. However, cooler air will begin to move into the region for Sunday.

Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was -15.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.877 today.

On August 17 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.479 (RMM). The August 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.226 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.2° (2.1° above normal).

 

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2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

eps_T850a_us_fh0-360.gif

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31 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

eps_T850a_us_fh0-360.gif

 

3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

zero chance of that happening..

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4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

It really depends on whether or not the drought breaks. If it doesn't then you're probably right. 

We'll also likely see a quick switch from summery to wintry. An early bout of snow wouldn't shock me either. 

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The next 8 days are averaging  81degs.(74/88) or +5.5.

Month to date is 79.2[+2.4].          Should be  79.7[+3.3] by the 28th.

Reached just 81 here yesterday with s. wind.

Today: 85-90, wind s,. p. cloudy, 73 tomorrow AM

EURO Monthly Outlooks look like the Twin-Tag-Team of HOT&HOTTER

Like the GFS, KWO-35 is going in circles right now.       An endless, digital merry-go-round, of their Preamble.      Useless  JWB 1865

75*(80%RH) here at 7am.        77* at 9am.        80* at Noon.       82* at 2pm.      Reached  83*(72%RH) feels like 89 at 3pm.          76* at 9pm.

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and very warm. A few locations could see a shower or thundershower. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 89°

Newark: 92°

Philadelphia: 93°

It will turn cooler tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.0°; 15-Year: 82.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.2°

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