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August 2022


Rtd208
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First time that Newark had back to back 40+ days of 90°. The 40 days of 90°+ ties the NJ state current leader board with Hightstown and South Jersey regional airport. Places like LGA and POU are near the top in NY as the tree growth causes NYC to fall further back in the pack.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 54 0
2 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2021 41 0
- 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2022 40 137
- 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0


 

Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 40
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 40
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40
Newark Area ThreadEx 40


 

Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
SARA NEW YORK RAWS 27
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 26
POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 26
New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 26
Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 26
STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 25
SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 23
SHRUB OAK COOP 22
ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 22
Albany Area ThreadEx 22
DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 20
ELMIRA COOP 20
WHITEHALL COOP 20
MILLBROOK 3 W WBAN 20
NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 19
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41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't know if Newark can take the top spot but the second spot is def in the cards. 

Definitely a lot of near 90 potential rest of the month and September always gives us a few 90s too. 

We are probably headed for a drought monitor upgrade with the 90s making a return tomorrow into Friday for the usual warm spots.


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79EEE1D3-743A-42E7-AEAD-5462F8F67233.thumb.png.e2433e3ea4dc06056c4c748cfa75e74d.png

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75 / 59 ENE flow.  Clouds building down into the area and probably on the more cloudy side the rest of the day compared to the last few days as cut off trough spins through a low into the northeast.  Highs upper 70s / low 80s but a bit more humid and some isolated showers perhaps.  Clearing out and warming up Thu and Fri (8/19) with some of the now drier and warm spots tagging on more 90s these days.  By Sat (8/20) low of the Southeast coast spins up - GFS has rains , Euro keeps her offshore but at least the next chance for rain as we await the likely deluge at some points in the reversal.  Beyond there Overall warm to hot at times, and humid last 10 days of the month as we remain in a more southerly tendency flow.  Perhaps more sustained late season heat towards the close of the month.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

With a few weeks to go, Newark is still in 1st place for driest summer just ahead of 1966.


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2022 3.57 15
2 1966 4.46 0
3 1949 5.68 0
4 1957 5.69 0
5 1965 5.83 0
6 1963 6.18 0
7 1993 6.20 0
8 1953 6.47 0
9 2010 6.74 0
10 1999 6.93 0

Most of that fell in June.  We'll see if the next opportunity on Sat (8/20) as low moves up the EC.  Can that track close enough to bring some rains into the area or just a cloudy Saturday.  If not then., Tue (8/23) front passes through. 

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43 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Dry ground also makes it more likely the 90s happen. 

There are some hints at a gradual pattern change to more rainfall opportunities in the coming weeks. The drought ridge sitting in the Plains all summer is forecast to shift. So we get into more of a WAR pattern heading into September. So looking like our classic early September endless summer pattern with plenty of 80s and 90s and convection chances. 

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1EF7C240-42C6-4732-B647-7A9F2312ABB4.thumb.png.fb9425bf7034312a1477f7d138ea2125.png

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are some hints at a gradual pattern change to more rainfall opportunities in the coming weeks. The drought ridge sitting in the Plains all summer is forecast to shift. So we get into more of a WAR pattern heading into September. So looking like our classic early September endless summer pattern with plenty of 80s and 90s and convection chances. 

9ED248E0-B126-432E-864A-994E5474B75E.gif.be8f3d4153d38980c6d5c3f605d37ae1.gif

 


AF261860-F5E5-4BE9-8C28-DEAF912378D1.thumb.png.fd8600c76324ca0afa18bd75ed491fab.png
4019982D-4919-45AD-AAA3-8F1FD4185873.thumb.png.9469b31dec8b9a5ea24c13493adbdf32.png

07D31127-4F4C-4AE4-B0E6-FCD599126625.thumb.png.ed5b56b0936797572ef3e78cef89b967.png

1EF7C240-42C6-4732-B647-7A9F2312ABB4.thumb.png.fb9425bf7034312a1477f7d138ea2125.png

 

Hopefully but these days I believe it when I see it. These patterns seem to reinforce and lock in place more and more these days. 

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully but these days I believe it when I see it. These patterns seem to reinforce and lock in place more and more these days. 

I agree.  Something to hope for but based upon how the current Ohio Valley / Eastern trof evolved and played out with hefty rain totals forecast and we literally received nothing I don't put much faith in these longer range projections at this time.  Nice to see it on a map, it does offer hope just not something I place high confidence in at this juncture.  IF the forecast pattern is real it would tend to open the door to some east coast tropical activity but we're a ways off from seeing how this actually evolves.

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6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I agree.  Something to hope for but based upon how the current Ohio Valley / Eastern trof evolved and played out with hefty rain totals forecast and we literally received nothing I don't put much faith in these longer range projections at this time.  Nice to see it on a map, it does offer hope just not something I place high confidence in at this juncture.  IF the forecast pattern is real it would tend to open the door to some east coast tropical activity but we're a ways off from seeing how this actually evolves.

We may have a better shot at convection than anything tropical affecting the East Coast in the next few weeks. The GFS has been too strong recently with the tropical waves coming off Africa. It can’t seem to handle the influence if all the dry air over the MDR. This is one of the slowest starts to the hurricane season due to all the sinking air out there. So we may have to wait until September for the subtropics to compensate for the lack of deep tropical development. 
 

 

 

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We may have a better shot at convection than anything tropical affecting the East Coast in the next few weeks. The GFS has been too strong recently with the tropical waves coming off Africa. It can’t seem to handle the influence if all the dry air over the MDR. This is one of the slowest starts to the hurricane season due to all the sinking air out there. So we may have to wait until September for the subtropics to compensate for the lack of deep tropical development. 
 
 
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It’s absolutely mind boggling. I would have bet the farm this year would be hyperactive. This could be the climate change issue that keeps storm numbers low in the Atlantic


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7 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

So how much snow is that? With the sun beginning to angle down does that mean this could overperform?

The pattern depicted in this run would be more likely to bring rain or mixed precip at least to coastal areas if this were to occur in January.  The center of SLP would be too far to the west.

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5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what a model fail today. do not buy into coastal captures unless there's a block over greenland/se canada

You know it’s not going to happen when the GFS is the only model showing the furthest west capture like with Joaquin in 2015 and other coastal events before a big shift east. 
 

 

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s not going to happen when the GFS is the only model showing the furthest west capture like with Joaquin in 2015 and other coastal events before a big shift east. 
 

 

joaquin had a similar blocking pattern where the block wasn't centered far enough east to force a capture

The meteorology, and stats, behind the 2015 Hurricane Season

eps_z500a_namer_1.png

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An offshore storm brought plenty of clouds to the region today. A few locations saw some drizzle or showers.

Out West, Boise recorded its 20th 100° day of the year. That tied the record set in 2003. 9 of Boise's 10 warmest summers have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1875. Salt Lake City further extended its annual record of 100° days to 23 days.
 
Generally cooler than normal conditions will persist through tomorrow. Afterward, a warmup is likely, though no excessive heat will occur through at least the weekend.

Much of the second half of August could see above to much above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was -6.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.036 today.

On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.074 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.294 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.0° (1.9° above normal).

 

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