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August 2022


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80s with sun now across the area. So another day with high temperatures beating guidance. Newark is at the 2nd lowest number of summer days under 80° so far. This could make it 3 consecutive years with a top 5 lowest number of days under 80°.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Number of Days Max Temperature < 80 
Missing Count
1 1994 6 0
2 2022 8 10
3 2021 11 0
- 2016 11 0
- 2011 11 0
- 1993 11 0
4 2020 12 0
- 2008 12 0
- 1966 12 0
5 2015 14 0
- 2010 14 0
- 1995 14 0
- 1991 14 0


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-- Changed Discussion --

Much of the showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of a surface warm front have lifted up into New England, with a trailing line across NE NJ. The latter of which could impact the NYC metro during the next 1-2 hour with possible rainfall rates greater than an inch (localized 2 inch amounts). HRRR also showing additional convection across eastern PA possibly working into NE NJ and the NYC metro between 7-9 pm (should it hold together) and then dissipating fairly quickly. There have been some wet microbursts in this activity with gusts up to 45 mph, but the main threat will be localized flash flooding. Warm front stalls across the area this evening with modest instability and an upper trough approaching from the west. Thus, will maintain scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm, through the overnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

-- End Changed Discussion --
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13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

august is july part ii and september is what august used to be

Many recent Septembers have been averaging over 70° making it the 4th month of summer. So fall doesn’t really get started until October now. Then we have been having numerous 40°+ Decembers making it more like the 3rd month of fall.

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Tomorrow will see additional showers and thunderstorms. Much of the region remains on track for two-day rainfall of 0.50"-1.00" with locally higher amounts through tomorrow. Long Island could wind up on the drier side.

Out West, Dallas-Fort Worth picked up 5.66" rain today. That set a new August record and was the 5th highest daily figure on record. Two-day rainfall of 9.19" surpassed the August monthly two-day record (6.95", August 17-18, 1915) and 3-day record (7.04", August 17-19, 1915) and was the 4th highest on record.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +12.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.574 today.

On August 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.827 (RMM). The August 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.600 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.7° (2.6° above normal).





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3 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

This maybe such a big epic bust for some areas while others cashed in.  Nyc west, and far eastern long Island did well

Never expected much here. The models targeted NJ more and more closer to the event which is all I needed to see. There were 2 very brief showers here that made the street wet for a minute total. We need a large synoptic weather system here for it to rain, otherwise we’re out of luck until the fall sometime when coastal storms or those synoptic storms come back. Looking likely to me that places east of NJ where pop up storms are rare will get bumped up to D3 soon. 

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Wow apparently parts of my area got over 3 inches! 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
721 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022


Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider


...New London County...
Norwich                      2.62 in   0440 PM 08/22   AWS
1 NE Norwich                 1.56 in   0445 PM 08/22   AWS
Groton Airport               1.30 in   0356 PM 08/22   ASOS

...New Jersey...

...Essex County...
West Orange                  1.78 in   0436 PM 08/22   CWOP
Livingston                   1.46 in   0430 PM 08/22   CWOP
1.6 W Millburn               1.36 in   0415 PM 08/22   HADS

...Hudson County...
Harrison                     2.14 in   0445 PM 08/22   AWS

...Passaic County...
Oak Ridge Reservoir          1.60 in   0345 PM 08/22   COOP
Ringwood                     1.48 in   0510 PM 08/22   RAWS

...Union County...
Linden Airport               1.23 in   0435 PM 08/22   AWOS

...New York...

...Rockland County...
Sparkill                     1.46 in   0435 PM 08/22   CWOP

...Suffolk County...
Orient Point                 3.07 in   0435 PM 08/22   CWOP


...Maritime Stations...
Quaker Hill                  1.74 in   0430 PM 08/22   CWOP
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2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

august is july part ii and september is what august used to be

The seasons of yesterday are no more. It was nice while it lasted. Even the new normals can't keep up.

Newark will easily break the 90s August record and annual 90s record. 

At least 5-6 more 90s this month and then probably a few in September should put them at 50+

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly  cloudy and warmer.  A shower or thundershower is possible. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 88°

The remainder of August will likely see generally warmer than normal conditions.


New York City: 30-Year: 82.6°; 15-Year: 82.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.0°; 15-Year: 84.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 84.7°

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