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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hottest day of the stretch is Tuesday by this NAM solution. 

Heat burst look too that 18z interval. Surge to 581dm over perfect wind trajectory and T1 to 32C serves up a 2m of 37C

Anywhere that does not fight clouds is going to be a lot warmer than guidance. An inferno incoming. As you pointed out it’s the classic burst before a fropa; atmospheric conditions look perfect. And this coming at the end of an extremely warm stretch which has effectively cooked the landscape and, SST’s. So we are spectacularly primed for lift off. For SNE the warmest is tomorrow. I happen to be in a spot where I will roast both days. Monday’s setup looks marginally better than Tuesday’s given afternoon cloud risk by me.

This time will be all about the heat index.

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18C to 19C 850s...it'll be hot and humid, but idk about the hottest yet. Maybe it's semantics, but feeling more of the same...maybe a lot of 95-97F in the torch spots. MA had the big heat yesterday and they were able to mix out a little. We'll see how well S NH and MA can do that today. The caveat is the cloudiness. Get too much BKN skies and it's probably 93-95F.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

18C to 19C 850s...it'll be hot and humid, but idk about the hottest yet. Maybe it's semantics, but feeling more of the same...maybe a lot of 95-97F in the torch spots. MA had the big heat yesterday and they were able to mix out a little. We'll see how well S NH and MA can do that today. The caveat is the cloudiness. Get too much BKN skies and it's probably 93-95F.

Fwiw - that was a comment on the NAM...  The hard numbers on the NAM grid were in fact the hottest of the stretch, for Tuesday, over Logan.

Whether that materializes 2-m to 37 or not..I wasn't ready to render an opinion - it's the NAM ...still 42 hours out at the time, which isn't in that particular guidance' wheelhouse of never.   The 850s were closer to 20C on the 00z run

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15 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Looks like 85/76 before 9am here. Stifling.

Interesting test for '10 after 10' ... By trend, we should be knocking on the door of 90 already by the :54 read, but I've noticed these last couple of few days of this..  We seem to have a steeper slope in the curve between dawn and 9 or 9:30, then it tries to plateau with less d(t)..  So, the rate of change may have a 2ndary negative delta making that less than an ideally linear projection.  

Yup ... lol, it's hot either way.   It becomes a micro-meteorological 'OCD' dream with temperatures ... like, BED with an 85/77 ... seldom do we see an NWS site with a DP like that around this part of the country, outside of a rare tropical transporting synoptics, or very briefly after muggy thunderstorm.  I figure this will prove the latter, and start mixing down ... but, we could see sites in that 94/74 range before they all correct to 69.4 while all home/Davis stations have 76... one of those layouts

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21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the tropical people are worse than the ACATT crew :lol:.

At least with winter weather; we score a big ticket event on a semi regular basis. When was the last impactful hurricane in New England? :lol:

They and the severe crew have a very difficult weenie life. 

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20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the tropical people are worse than the ACATT crew :lol:.

At least with winter weather; we score a big ticket event on a semi regular basis. When was the last impactful hurricane in New England? :lol:

Tropical folks probably shouldn't post here :lol: 

That said, even without a hurricane (Gloria '85/Bob '91) we've been on a relative heater with impactful tropical. Setting aside last season (post-tropical Ida and MEHenri), we've had Isaias '20, Sandy '12, and Irene '11. That's not bad for a region with some of the longest tropical return times in the US. 

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23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the tropical people are worse than the ACATT crew :lol:.

At least with winter weather; we score a big ticket event on a semi regular basis. When was the last impactful hurricane in New England? :lol:

Sandy?

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tropical folks probably shouldn't post here :lol: 

That said, even without a hurricane (Gloria '85/Bob '91) we've been on a relative heater with impactful tropical. Setting aside last season (post-tropical Ida and MEHenri), we've had Isaias '20, Sandy '12, and Irene '11. That's not bad for a region with some of the longest tropical return times in the US. 

The Jersey/NYC crew have scored the most when it comes to tropical systems however the future major hurricane potential is higher for eastern NE. 

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7 minutes ago, amarshall said:

We are so due and as a coastal business owner it scares the shit out of me. 

That and the amount of tree growth since Bob in 91; power outages from a legit CAT 1 or greater will be 2+ weeks.

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59 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the tropical people are worse than the ACATT crew :lol:.

At least with winter weather; we score a big ticket event on a semi regular basis. When was the last impactful hurricane in New England? :lol:

Oh they are... over there vitriol ( for whatever reason..) foments faster and is disrespectful ...

Op ed: ...pushing decorum in a sub-forum that's lost a lot of the earlier years of "internet tact."  A tact that was fragile to begin with - people were just sort of being polite because ( it seems..) they merely weren't sure how to engage...

But given familiarity to the engagement?  - made them brave. And with that ... truer colors of assholier-than-thou now tint the social-mediasphere of the Web, exposing that probably in reality some 80% or more people are in fact c*!Z when operating in anonymity.  Maybe it's just part of the whole erosion of mores and civility that is patently, clearly becoming more than a high-brow criticism of modernity - digress. 

For some reason, the Tropical sub-genre takes that sort of charming sociologic emergence, and puts it on cocaine. 

I'm being someone whimsy and hyperbolic here but there is some truth to it.  It's a curious volatility in there, and one wanders into a minefield, where mere curiosity based statements is apparently enough of a footfall. No thanks.  I think it's pretty easy assessment though, as to why.  I mean, you kinda sorta danced around why there. "...at least with winter weather we score bigger ticket events on a semi regular basis"

Hurricane are roughly 10 to 25% of the areal impact of a typical mid latitude snowfall, with enough error in the latter that when a snow fall map and impact region is charted at D5, there is room to negotiate. Verification moves around often enough that if one is close, it "pacifies" their angst with a ZANAX dose of  'we still got a chance.'   This is true with all other phenomenon, even convection.  Because thunderstorms effect larger regions, where everyone still has a chance... etc.  

That's not so much the case with TCs... Being small, in an ever improving arena of modeling tech now making D5s not all-together terrible ... that sort of leaves a lot of people out of the party while maintaining them being close enough to here the band - so..there's a weird psychology of resentment that way.  

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