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August Discussion/Obs


weatherwiz
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There is a growing signal for another round of big heat to push into the region moving through the first week of August. GEFS advertising am extensive ridge across the heart of the country with the 588dm height pushed well into the northern Plains and even moreso the 591dm contour...this is rather impressive. 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_9.png

GEFS also showing some big time warmth in the 850mb layer with high anomalies and potential for 850's well over 20C

gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_9.png

 

More importantly, given the subtle trough signal over our region, this implies we would be dealing with a westerly to northwesterly flow aloft in the mid-levels...maybe we can get some EML action in here

image.thumb.png.a04cc68a9373e5ac38f840ce882a90d3.png

 

Anyways, as Tip had pointed out several times in the July thread, teleconnections are SCREAMING for a surge of high heat into the region and hopefully with some dews, dews, dews (and severe chances)

 

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15 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

There is a growing signal for another round of big heat to push into the region moving through the first week of August. GEFS advertising am extensive ridge across the heart of the country with the 588dm height pushed well into the northern Plains and even moreso the 591dm contour...this is rather impressive. 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_9.png

GEFS also showing some big time warmth in the 850mb layer with high anomalies and potential for 850's well over 20C

gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_9.png

 

More importantly, given the subtle trough signal over our region, this implies we would be dealing with a westerly to northwesterly flow aloft in the mid-levels...maybe we can get some EML action in here

image.thumb.png.a04cc68a9373e5ac38f840ce882a90d3.png

 

Anyways, as Tip had pointed out several times in the July thread, teleconnections are SCREAMING for a surge of high heat into the region and hopefully with some dews, dews, dews (and severe chances)

 

Dendrite dissents.

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I think we can all agree some of the numbers being floated around are not going to happen. Unless we saw significant changes regarding the placement of the upper-level ridge (for starters). But if you're looking for a pattern that isn't boring and want some [convective] rain chances the projected look is what you want. Anytime we can end up on the crest (especially downwind) of the upper-level ridge you're in a favorable position for lots of shortwave energy and fronts to move through. While it will certainly be hot and humid there will also be plenty of chances for some convection.

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14 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Aug is a great month. The step down unfolds while the late summeh coc starts poking its head through the fading dews.

Noticeable loss of daylight accelerates later in August.   Awful.

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Not sure what to take end of next week. GFS has some high heat building in towards the end of the week while the Euro is a bit more reserved. Pretty big differences too between the Euro/GFS at H5 with where the ridge is centered. There looks to be a [weak] cold front which tries pushing across the Northeast later in the week so sort of leaning towards a more reserved (but still hot) Euro look.

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I don't believe I ever said the telecon spread 'screamed' in spirit of what that sounds like.  Lol -

In fact, I've been tacitly aware and bearing mention all along that teleconnectors are iffier in the summer months, particularly true with the PNA.    It was the combination of them, however, with other longer termed conceptualized aspects, together, that might offer more signal in total. 

That's a lot of conditional baggage ( actually...) using that experimental approach.  

That said, yeah... the PNA corrects aggressively over the next week's worth of days.  I posted the these back on pg 86 of that July thread,

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_07/image.png.48b4af1cafd70d57e48443f3f368011d.png

Other than very minor perceivably insignificant differences ...these are still essentially the same as of last night's derivatives.  In fact, that continuity - thus - from the GFS ens is/has been remarkably stable.  Particularly for summer.  That is a highly concerted clustering around a total 1.5 (abs value) correction downward.   Meanwhile, the NAO is correcting up aggressively, though not quite in the same magnitude - together that's suggestive.

Basically the total thinking was/is... (still-)

Iffy PNA confidence gets a bit of a nod because a positive NAO tends to lift the westerly/ambient jets, N over eastern N/A.   Whereas the -PNA is a +geopotential medium over the OV, those two together carry more weight - even in the summer.  

The other aspect that is longer term/conceptual is that the La Nina summer correlates to a -PNA.  What is interesting there in, we have not seen a very negative PNA summer.   In fact, looking back along the PNA curve above, other than a 10 day stint during the first half of July, the entire summer has been in a +PNA dominated mode.  As an aside, it annoys me that NCEP keeps referring to everything being in our out of constructive(destructive) interference with the La Nina base-state.  Base state?  The +PNA would appear to be in conflict with that assertion - we have not been in an atmospheric La Nina base state, and in fact, I would argue that the ocean and atmospheric state is largely decoupled. But... they are not very explicit beyond making the statements, so perhaps they are seeing some other metrics in making that determination re the base-state circulation mode. ..

Back to the dailies... None of the above 'screams' anything.   It only tips in favor of warmer departures.    The operational versions are also seemingly going out of their way to correct the heat signal the moment the ridge starts to formulate.  The operational GFS has been routinely a western ridge outlier compared to the ensemble mean - so there's a bit of a native inward squabble.  Either the operational will concede, or the ens mean will... Or the compromise.  

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16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

How the GEFS....never mind....I will.

52A63BBA-89C8-48F7-BEED-5FA4A74D45AC.png

Yeah... not withstanding the 324 la la range ... it still illustrates how the operational and the ens mean of the GFS keep divorcing out in time.  It's been more prevalent in the extended, so I haven't personally been bringing it up.  But we are here about to either set the table for a signficant heat wave, or... miss one ( perhaps MCSing instead) ... and this discrepancy in the GFS system is smack on when they tend to have their marital blowouts -

Euro's also being peevish with heat moving into its extended but it's not abundantly clear it's for the same reason. They both have identifiable bias behaviors that are distinct as far as my own experience.

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I guess it pertains more so to August ... but that's quite a Euro look for D6 through 10

Backdoor contention D9 ... if that fails, that's 5 days straight of 97's   ..probably 94 to 102 from ORH to BED, with some history potential. 

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Heh...that D7 is 104 at Logan, easily - don't have to look at the 2-m .. but it has 106 as near-by as Cambridge    LOL

Not sure the 108s out in Framingham is real ... or any of it for that matter... lord

image.png.959585b5c3578523a2ae6353366264bf.png

Not sure how it keeps Logan 96 given the surrounding synopsis ...but, that hover temp there is out around Waltham or so

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Obviously I think we know the extent of the heat is way overdone, but if not, it's very hard to see that verifying. First off, there is likely to be some sort of at least weakly diffused [cold front] boundary somewhere within the region. Based on the flow aloft and how it looks to potentially be convectively active across the northern Plains (closer and just north of the international border) we are going to have potential to deal with lots of high cloud debris...heck, maybe even chances for convection. If we were seeing 850's of like +24C to +26C or whatever being modeled...might be a bit more optimistic because we all know models tends to back off on those  as we get closer. 

Anyways...one of these days we will see an outcome like this verify.

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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I guess it pertains more so to August ... but that's quite a Euro look for D6 through 10

Backdoor contention D9 ... if that fails, that's 5 days straight of 97's   ..probably 94 to 102 from ORH to BED, with some history potential. 

The dryness will really help feed into this heat. Definite multi day 100+ potential over a large area

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The dryness will really help feed into this heat. Definite multi day 100+ potential over a large area

Mixed ideas... I could see the dry feed back part, but "definite" isn't a term I'd prefer to use in the context of potential, for "100+"  in deference to New England. 

The signal for a hot spell ...we've beaten that dead horse.   But it's been such a long lead we're waiting days and days and days before getting a more confident feel.  

Climate argues no, duh.  

Euro has a BD tickling the nut hairs of NE Mass D9.   You know, heat is the most fragile, corrective metric of all weather related highlights at extended leads.  It's really there on the charts because everything else pulls away and leaves the region alone - anything at all passes through even minoring, it may mean 15 F lopped off the top.  

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that output would prob need 25-26+ at 850? 

Highest temp I ever recorded back in shrewsbury was 99.5 on 7/21/11. Hottest day of all time out there is prob 7/4/1911 when ORH (old site) at comparable elevation to mby got to 102. I’d bet hot saturday was similar maybe a tick cooler. Would be incredible to beat that record by 4-5 degrees. 

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