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June pattern and forecast discussion


weathafella
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30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Like last summer. Went from drought “concerns” to weekly flash flooding. Elsa, Fred, Henri (:lol:) and the big dog—Ghost of Ida. 

I didn’t even know there’s a suspicious area off of Florida to be investigated before I wrote that 

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21 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

You’ll join the dark side soon. A few more BN snowfall winters that last 6 weeks and you’ll be Methuen’s Torch Tiger.

At least we are dewing summer wx more and more.

Nah...I can hang. I figure maybe one more subpar season at most, before things begin to turn around. This season would be 5 consecutive stinkers, but I can't see 6.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah...I can hang. I figure maybe one more subpar season at most, before things begin to turn around. This season would be 5 consecutive stinkers, but I can't see 6.

There is no shot of me ever being a lover of summer.  Bring on the cold and snow of winter over heat and humidity.  Always amazes me how some people talk themselves into being "old" long before they are actually old. 

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Definitely surprised by the muggy feel to the air today.  Low 70s and DP in low 60s

Yeah. I just drove down 91 from Hartford to New Haven and it was like 76-78 the whole ride with dews close to 70. Sun was popping out as well. 

 

Screenshot_20220602-143958_Wunderground.jpg

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2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

The next few weeks look pretty dry overall.  concerns

what else is new. Except for last summer in which SNE got drenched, we still were BN, but better than previous 2 summers. I just accept that it will be dry May through Sept.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah...I can hang. I figure maybe one more subpar season at most, before things begin to turn around. This season would be 5 consecutive stinkers, but I can't see 6.

Why not?

it'd fit the notion of receding frost lines do to CC -

...we're not going the other way.   Dearth years should become more common.  

I suppose a couple a of good winter are easily still within reach ... I mean it's all "supposed" to take 50 years to get DCA's climate to PWM or whatever. 

At some point, we'll get around to a MR Blutarsky winter out at Logan. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Another traffic death on the Tolland triangle on 84 this morning 

Yup. Heard the sirens on my run about 5:15 I’d say. Tons of them. It’s likely one of the top 3-5 traffic accidents areas in US. And no one understands why . It’s very eerie 

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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

what else is new. Except for last summer in which SNE got drenched, we still were BN, but better than previous 2 summers. I just accept that it will be dry May through Sept.

Yeah, feast or famine last summer.  May, June, Aug were all BN.  July was AN with 11" of rain.  Sep was average.  It comes out to be AN for the whole summer, but definitely didn't feel that outside July.

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

 

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why not?

it'd fit the notion of receding frost lines do to CC -

...we're not going the other way.   Dearth years should become more common.  

I suppose a couple a of good winter are easily still within reach ... I mean it's all "supposed" to take 50 years to get DCA's climate to PWM or whatever. 

At some point, we'll get around to a MR Blutarsky winter out at Logan. 

Methuen may still be cold enough to be on the plus side of the warmer/wetter snow futures.  However, models generally show more variability, so an increased chance of 5 straight BN snow seasons, and also for 5 straight AN?

And oddly, my records show fewer large precip events in recent years, and fewer extra rainy months.  We've had 20 months with 7"+ precip in our 24 years here, but none since October 2019.  October '17 hit the mark bot the next most recent is July 2014, so 18 such months in our first 17 years and only 2 in the next 7+.  It's similar with calendar day dousings; with 21 days having 2.50"+, only one came since October 2016, the 2020 supergrinch.  Thus 20 in our first 19 years and one in the next 5+.  SSS, but still odd.

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15 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Yeah, feast or famine last summer.  May, June, Aug were all BN.  July was AN with 11" of rain.  Sep was average.  It comes out to be AN for the whole summer, but definitely didn't feel that outside July.

https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?map=ACISClimateMaps

 

 

It was only AN in JUL because of the nighttime mins

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36 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Radar lines up perfectly with the CT drought map. DXR reporting 2.02 the last hour. Middletown and Bristol have been getting dumped on the last hour as well.

 

 

Screenshot_20220602-164428_RadarScope.jpg

So the promised wet week here delivered .09 

We can’t take any more water 

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7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Got lucky here with 1.31” the last 24 hours man did we need it grass was starting to brown badly. Up to 4.75” since May 1. 

What went up last summer goes down this summer . I expect it to continue in a general sense all summer . 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So the promised wet week here delivered .09 

We can’t take any more water 

It is bone dry here. Driving around the valley today, there were huge clouds of dust coming off the farms where the tractors were moving.  

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13 minutes ago, White Rain said:

Last year was ridiculous. Way to wet. Stein woukd be a big improvement over that. 

Long term we are good. Over 60” of rain in 2021. 40” of that May- Aug. 

 

That said .. short term since mid April it has been exceedingly dry which initially only matters for lawns, shrubs, gardens etc . But if we go JJA dry and BN,, that will start affecting reservoirs, and longer term issues such as resurgence of gypsy moths , water bans etc. My gut says we get a direct cane hit in September this year. At any rate.. it’s Stein for the next couple of weeks , but nothing that is detrimental 

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