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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that's fine.....and I'm just telling you that you actually have no idea if we'll get another event or not....not that you will be wrong in your prediction. For your area, you are prob like 50/50 not to see any more accumulating snowfall....up where I am, I'm probably favored to see it again.

I think the gap in y'alls perspectives here is clearly "trend"

Winterwolf probably had some snark internally as he was typing his/her original jest - sorry I have never met you.  But, tamber of voice and intent cannot really be affectingly conveyed...so that didn't help. 

But, he would have done much better if he kept the argument as "trend tends to beget trend," which is a completely valid and less cracked-logical approach.

The total manifold of causes and effects can remain imaginary, when discussing trend and persistence.   Leave otherwise out of the discussion.  Just ask the question, 'Is there any prominent reason of factor that indicates the persistence will not continue?'  ...

if the answer's no, his ending up at the statement, "I just knew it wouldn't -" has merit based upon that alone - which it does frankly ( to me).  

Oh, he/she could certainly caveat emptor with, "pending something that's yet to occur, intervening to break the trend"  ..which would also be true. 

Fact of the matter is, these cold solution events have either left lots on tables, or failed, with persistence... 

Why that is ?   I think it has something to do with the velocity saturation of the hemisphere. It's also something that's been going on a lot over recent winters, too - not just this one.  We're still doing okay in the snow vs climo comparison ( more or less...). But that could be PWAT loading being CC higher, offsetting the exploded ravioli patterns.  Just a personal hypothesis -

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41 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Of course it is Will…it’s just some venting that’s all.
 

This season has been one of the most annoying in decades.  Good blocking and pattern in December, but a horrific -PNA so  the combo shredding everything to nothing.  Boob lows, elongated pieces of trash, lows chasing convection, zero model agreement the day of most storms, everything trending worse as we close in…ensembles showing great patterns that never quite materialize, just garbage through and through. 
 

Yes some Rats sometimes have season ending snow storms. But this one won’t.  And that’s fine by me.

 

Got up north 3 times, had 3 great sledding trip so I got my fill. Just disappointed for around here in SNE. It’s over and I’m glad. We spring..at least for today lol. 
 

And I’ll go get my rabies shot on my lunch break..lmao. 

You cannot be far from normal snowfall-wise though, right?  Do you average near 50"? and you've got over 40"?  I'm not sure.  Annoying winter yes but seems a bit harsh in retrospect

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That's different.. interesting. 

the NAM holds the back door from invading eastern zones on this 12z guidance  ...      in March

It had it that way for 4 cycles, and fits climate... So I guess we're sending a +24 2-meter high temp anomaly into eastern zones, unscathed.

By the way, yeah... I wasn't even paying attention but that looks unusually convective later tomorrow for also March.  I mean, regional LI's to -4 at this time of year, and not just spiking..but laid in as a slab of troposphere is interesting.

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1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

You cannot be far from normal snowfall-wise though, right?  Do you average near 50"? and you've got over 40"?  I'm not sure.  Annoying winter yes but seems a bit harsh in retrospect

Average close to 50”, have 35” on the season. Maybe Not a complete rat, but not very good either.   70% of normal, isn’t too good imo. But it’s over and done in my mind, so we move on and forget.  
 

71 degrees out there’s already…gorgeous for sure. 

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I could be wrong on this and this doesn't apply for the top-tier above-average winters, but for the most part most locations probably go into March near or below-average in terms of snowfall. Many climo sites still average several-pus inches of snowfall during the month of March and maybe an inch or two in April (though this could have changed over the past decade). 

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welp ...that now 4 years out of the last 6, spanning different ENSO this... solar that... AMO this... PDO that...

...where we've gone bizzaro heat at least once prior to the Equinox. 

72 to 75 presently, on March 18 ... It's not as extreme as 83 like it did 2 our of those 4 times... but it's absurd enough, and eerily dependable.

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21 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Sunday looks sneaky warm - 60's again?

Maybe... 

Tuesday looks like a huge reality check.  Thankfully it is shorter lived... Looks like one of those  air masses that knifes in for 18 hours and rolls away.  Maybe 30s with high winds, then 40s with light winds on Wednesday - something like that...

You know, in some ways ...one is better without a day like this, this ridic early.  Obviously ...one knows this is not reliable/sustainable -duh. It's never about that. But, still, being human, it makes it's hard when the other shoe falls. 

One year, I think it was 2010 ... we had a shit March with a ton of flooding. Cold and windy and raw with 4 coastals that dumped 5" of rain, each, spanning 3 weeks - kind of like May 2005, but in March, and each storm more intense.  ...None were snow by the way... But, I remember early April, this crazy warm front came through and it was like a 40s one day, 80s the next...and the season really never went back deeper than the 60s and in fact, that was a hot spring overall after that.  exceedingly rare ... That's how you want it done.

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45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I could be wrong on this and this doesn't apply for the top-tier above-average winters, but for the most part most locations probably go into March near or below-average in terms of snowfall. Many climo sites still average several-pus inches of snowfall during the month of March and maybe an inch or two in April (though this could have changed over the past decade). 

Some places in SNE average more in March than in Dec, and it's at least close in most places.

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9 minutes ago, radarman said:

Some places in SNE average more in March than in Dec, and it's at least close in most places.

Yup. Not sure how much this has changed with the new climo period but I at least remember BDL used to average more in March than December. 

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup. Not sure how much this has changed with the new climo period but I at least remember BDL used to average more in March than December. 

BDR too.  I'm not sure if that should be surprising or not. 

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36 minutes ago, radarman said:

Some places in SNE average more in March than in Dec, and it's at least close in most places.

88% of our snow comes in the 4 months DJFM.  The cumulative percentages below are probably similar to others here, though the farther south the more dominant Jan-Feb tends to be.
Since I'm only on winter # 24, my numbers are "live" and adjust with each month's entry.)

Month  Snow  Cum SN  Cum %
OCT      0.63"     0.63"      0.7%
NOV      4.72"     5.35"      6.0%
DEC     18.75"   34.10"     27.2%
JAN     19.62"   43.72"    49.4%
FEB     22.87"   66.59"    75.2%
MAR    16.70"   83.29"    94.1%   (Last year's 0.1": total didn't help.)
APR      5.10"     88.39"    99.8%
MAY     0.15"     88.54"

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Upper 60's here - can't ask for much more in March..especially with water temps around 40. 

There is a disparity if you drive about a mile closer to the beach though - around 59/60. 

Another example. Woods Hole is 46 while Falmouth is in the mid 60's a couple miles inland. 

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