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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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Here were my thoughts with respect to March from last November:

March 2022 Outlook
 
March Analogs: 1956 (x2), 1984, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018 (x2), 1975, 2011
 
The first half of March should be blocky with an improving Pacific. The month should feature both Miller A & B cyclogenesis, as there are signs that the subtropical jet may enter the scene in addition to the active northern stream. This could be a very volatile set up with immense storm potential should the two streams phase. There is a relatively strong chance of a KU magnitude event between March 1st and 15th. The failure risk is that the SSW does not materialize, which could alter the forecast dramatically.
Monthly departures anywhere from 1-3 degrees below average with the coldest across the interior and above average snowfall from the mid atlantic into New England. This should be a very active east coast pattern rivaling that of March 2018 and 2001, though with perhaps more southern stream involvement.
The pattern may rapidly break down later in the month with an early spring to reward beleaguered residents of the northeast if the vortex does indeed weaken a bit earlier than the Euro guidance suggests, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather.
This March forecast, again, is contingent upon the development of high latitude blocking, and the risk is for a warmer outcome should that not occur. or be delayed, as the European guidance hints at.
 
March%2BH5.png

 

 
March%2BTemps.png

 

March%2BPrecip.png
 
 
 
Obviously the glaring error is with respect to the polar domain, as  it appears as though the uptick in solar activity was enough to derail that. However, clearly the poleward Pacific ridging still holds the potential to deliver during that originally highlighted March 1-15 window.
image.thumb.png.a1381754a9d85db627180b506255ea99.png
 
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image.thumb.png.a1e5a16b96658f4abd21ef868115db7b.pngRay, what do you think about the early March threat? I’m not a fan of that energy out west with a shallow and too far east pac ridge. If we can get some changes with the pac though this could be an interesting threat. The Atlantic doesn’t look as hostile.

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

image.thumb.png.a1e5a16b96658f4abd21ef868115db7b.pngRay, what do you think about the early March threat? I’m not a fan of that energy out west with a shallow and too far east pac ridge. If we can get some changes with the pac though this could be an interesting threat. The Atlantic doesn’t look as hostile.

I haven't really looked yet, but I would focus more on ensembles for several more days.

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  • 40/70 Benchmark changed the title to March 2022 Obs/Disc: Potentially in Like Lion

Looks like a 2-3 days moderation after the 5th or so....but EPS and GEFS are both pretty bullish for continued winter threats after that. The trough actually moves east a bit, so perhaps we'd have more support for a coastal after 3/10 or so.

 

Here's the LR EPS....GEFS is pretty similar too. (edit: GEFS was posted above while I was making this post)

 

 

Feb25_12zEPS360.png

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a 2-3 days moderation after the 5th or so....but EPS and GEFS are both pretty bullish for continued winter threats after that. The trough actually moves east a bit, so perhaps we'd have more support for a coastal after 3/10 or so.

 

Here's the LR EPS....GEFS is pretty similar too. (edit: GEFS was posted above while I was making this post)

 

 

Feb25_12zEPS360.png

Do you find it odd that the RNA is that severely negative yet the polar vortex is still north of us and has not slide into the RNA? Is this depicted model spread or is this possible?

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Do you find it odd that the RNA is that severely negative yet the polar vortex is still north of us and has not slide into the RNA? Is this depicted model spread or is this possible?

The PNA index just measures where the height anomalies are within the PNA domain loading pattern. So because we have higher heights out toward the Aleutians and lower heights over western Canada, it’s going to produce a -PNA (RNA) number. It doesn’t mean the PV has to get sucked down into Washington and Oregon like it did back in December during that obscene pattern. 
 

The PV being over Hudson Bay will help with overrunning threats that might otherwise be cutters. You can see though how the mean trough is further east by the end of EPS run though. It’s more sitting over the central US instead of further west so it would give us a better shot at a Miller B. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like a 2-3 days moderation after the 5th or so....but EPS and GEFS are both pretty bullish for continued winter threats after that. The trough actually moves east a bit, so perhaps we'd have more support for a coastal after 3/10 or so.

 

Here's the LR EPS....GEFS is pretty similar too. (edit: GEFS was posted above while I was making this post)

 

 

Feb25_12zEPS360.png

Outside shot at getting near normal with a big March....at 36" now.

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39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Outside shot at getting near normal with a big March....at 36" now.

Yeah you’d prob need like a moderate storm of 6-10” and then cash in on a big dog of 12-18”+. Maybe another smaller nuisance event or two mixed in there somewhere before mid-April and there’s your 30”+ to get you to normal. 

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The first week of March looks normal to slightly below.  Pretty tame and dry weather wise until end of the week.  We'll see if the flow flattens a bit or the cutter screams North into the Great Lakes.   Maybe some light accumulation for someone in SNE mid-week?

In any case it will look wintery for a bit after today's snow.

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10 hours ago, tavwtby said:

would be nice if we can get a replay of march 56, or when was it 2018?, where we had like 3 noreasters within the month

I'd go for another March 2001, 55.5" and closing with a 19" dump on 30-31 that brought the pack to 48".  The big dog on 3/5-6 was only the 3rd biggest storm that month.

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  • 40/70 Benchmark changed the title to March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
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