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March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly


40/70 Benchmark
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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS looks pretty cold going into mid-March but the period from like 3/5-3/8 or so looks torchy. 

Seriously ...I'm not trying to be anti-wintry here.   You gotta know... since warmth is a fleeting commodity at this time of year, I'd be happy with blue bombs.  'Sides, my internal monologue often muses, 'it can rage in blizzards all it wants, ...July is still coming '

I'm not sure the EPS signal won't come into nearer terms less magnified.   In other words, it may be over-amp relative to what actually transpires. 

I could see the CFS shit working out if the EPS modes arrive weaker, and the R/wave distribution down stream cools 100W ... we start SW releasing early with next weeks 'dirty' warm sector becoming repetitive tendencies at mid month. 

Between March ~ 10 and May 1st, I don't trust the operational GFS as a personal doctrine, for any late mid to extended range. Since they started ensemble-line churning out new FV's every 9 months starting 7 years ago ...that model's had a propensity in springs of always attempting to take the nearer term diabatic flux of solar/seasonal increases, and absorb it such that it's physics wends its way back to January 20th seemingly no matter what.  It'll have no compunctions in wheeling up a 524 dm SPV over JB on May 15th when looking at May 2nt runs.

A little snark there...but it really is the last of the guidance's to concede to warm heights in the mid latitudes.  Sometimes its right ... but it's always the cooler member. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s an overrunning look. I was just referring to this week.

I've heard that so many times this season. Overrunning is really just code for a coldish pattern with no blocking. They are often not very prolific. We've played that Wilton Felton elevator music, or whatever the hell his name is, like 10 times this season, but most locales have half of the snow.

Here is a tall task....point to the discrete and viable winter storm threat on the maps....exactly. Wish we could end it.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've heard that so many times this season. Overrunning is really just code for a coldish pattern with no blocking. They are often not very prolific. We've played that Wilton Felton elevator music, or whatever the hell his name is, like 10 times this season, but most locales have half of the snow.

Here is a tall task....point to the discrete and viable winter storm threat on the maps....exactly. Wish we could end it.

Yeah wasn’t trying to imply a prolific look, just something that may offer some chances. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The long range looks nothing like ending it, so we may as well try to take our chances.

Yep. Might as well get some threats in that pattern rather than talk about how nice the 47F faux warmth feels with -5C 850 temps….or actually freezing our balls off when the occasional -20c shot gets us. 

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52 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Hour 384 clown map...cool.

so, even the clown maps show less than 6" until the ides, I'll pass and just take warmth if that's the case, season is getting long in the tooth for sustained cold, though it has happened, but prognosis don't look good, meh I'm not even half to climo, so at this point want to get on with spring activities if it ain't gonna march 56 us...

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Hoping for an El Nino next winter

 

Hopefully a weak one. Moderate and stronger not good for my area (though in NYC they can be better). Weak west based ninos are where we get most of our truly epic winters. 77-78, 2014-2015, 2004-2005 all had weak west based ninos. It’s been a while since we had an epic region wide winter with well above normal snow in all of New England. 

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Im not a fan of the look on the models for early month. I hate seeing a trough out west and a lack of blocking. We could still snow in a bad pattern because we live in New England not DC where you need a perfect pattern to snow, but probably nothing big. There are positive signs for mid month though. The polar vortex is expected to weaken a lot as well as a more favorable MJO projected mid to late March. Hopefully that leads to the pattern improving with a big storm before spring.

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4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Im not a fan of the look on the models for early month. I hate seeing a trough out west and a lack of blocking. We could still snow in a bad pattern because we live in New England not DC where you need a perfect pattern to snow, but probably nothing big. There are positive signs for mid month though. The polar vortex is expected to weaken a lot as well as a more favorable MJO projected mid to late March. Hopefully that leads to the pattern improving with a big storm before spring.

Early March is cooked

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  • 40/70 Benchmark changed the title to March 2022 Obs/Disc: In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Butterfly
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