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OBS/DISCO - The Historic James Blizzard of 2022


TalcottWx
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the QPF will likely be underdone a bit this afternoon in the deformation band (prob sets up over E MA…maybe as far west as central areas if lucky)….but I also don’t think this is a major short term model bust incoming elsewhere. The low being elongated is real and will prevent the monster solutions we saw a couple days ago. That said, those putrid rgem solutions are going to be wrong too. Reality in the middle. 

Yeah, I'd love to see the deform back up to the river but it really looks to be pivoting right over 395 to orh. Tell me what I'm missing that says Kevin gets another foot of snow, my weenie ears are wide open.

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Poor rhode island lmao must be pissing their pants. That should fill in.

Lol that's the way it always goes. Although I'm not sure it's been as bad as it looks on radar. Then again it's really hard to tell how much snow is falling vs how much is blowing off the ground with these 50+ mph gusts. It's gone to whiteout in the past couple of minutes and winds are increasing 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the QPF will likely be underdone a bit this afternoon in the deformation band (prob sets up over E MA…maybe as far west as central areas if lucky)….but I also don’t think this is a major short term model bust incoming elsewhere. The low being elongated is real and will prevent the monster solutions we saw a couple days ago. That said, those putrid rgem solutions are going to be wrong too. Reality in the middle. 

Yeah… big totals might not be realized west… o still think this could e historic for someone in eastern ma. Norwell, Hanover area comes to mind 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do like seeing that WCB stuff south of BID heading on a trajectory to get wrapped into the CCB over E MA and RI. 
 

Too bad we couldn’t get that stuff east of the Cape to wrap all the way back. 

Mm, this is starting to smell like a now-cast over-achiever, relative to the late model guidance shirking and pulling E solutions that is. ( not yelling at anyway lol...just sayn') 

granted the euro came back a bit at 18z yesterday. I haven't frankly seen any modeling since the early 00Z's and those were skim over looks... Now-casting is worth it on this bitch.  But even the Euro was guilty of the dual node low, stressed cyclonic coherence scheme on a couple of runs - proverbial pin pricks in the glory balloon.  Just when we almost had art ... Sometimes I wonder if there's a troll-mole planted in modeling sciences haha.

But yeah..we've been onto the Meteorological oddity  as  not supporting the GFS - like solutions.  Heh, it's one thing to cook up a bad idea once or twice along a storms story line, but to be adamantly unwavering and insistent even at 12 hrs ahead??!!  That's a HUGE indictment - I'm sorry.

We should note there have been hints of stalls.. moves toward doing so in the guidance from a couple days back, it was at least hinted. Looking at the well centralized deepening low due S of the eastern tip of L.I., and going forward through the synoptics.. I feel there is at least some chance these jet field could back some. There's always a bit of uncertainty when closing lows.  We'll see if that happens.. 

It's a learning op on how cyclogenesis accuracy in proficiency ( and position and stressing evince problems ...), is critical piece to models getting things right.  There are dynamic height falls associated to the low formation and the cloud/precipitation mechanics releasing rising air inducing height falls that feedback on trough structure, as the main S/W axis is nearing.  Those feed-backs combined with and that is where the axis of the cut takes place... The models were showing the cut at 500 mb, ...way west of a low escaping east, and a 700 mb in between elevation low, skewed west.   I mean you can "tilt" these aspect some .. we see that.  But this was stressing believability to me. I said yesterday I wasn't buying it - I was resolute in being okay if proven wrong.  Cool man.  Bring it on.

So we'll see where this goes..

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5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I may not even need to shovel. Wind is working wonders on clearing the entire yard for that matter. 

Yeah my yard and driveway is just blown all over the place. My deck somehow has stayed mostly intact, looks like we have a good amount of snow for this early.

 

DDE9-E963-1-C10-40-D9-9-C7-C-418402-FFD3

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Just now, LovewellHemp said:

Lol that's the way it always goes. Although I'm not sure it's been as bad as it looks on radar. Then again it's really hard to tell how much snow is falling vs how much is blowing off the ground with these 50+ mph gusts. It's gone to whiteout in the past couple of minutes and winds are increasing 

That's the story with this one for many. Even back here, the blowing snow is impressive.

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Just now, JC-CT said:

Yeah, I'd love to see the deform back up to the river but it really looks to be pivoting right over 395 to orh. Tell me what I'm missing that says Kevin gets another foot of snow, my weenie ears are wide open.

I’d be surprised if Kevin got another foot, but it’s not out of the envelope of possibilities. If he grabs the western edge of the deformation band, then it could pile up quickly for a few hours. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the QPF will likely be underdone a bit this afternoon in the deformation band (prob sets up over E MA…maybe as far west as central areas if lucky)….but I also don’t think this is a major short term model bust incoming elsewhere. The low being elongated is real and will prevent the monster solutions we saw a couple days ago. That said, those putrid rgem solutions are going to be wrong too. Reality in the middle. 

I will say, to at the very least prove that I'm not part of the everything is awesome crowd, that an elongated low screwing up a textbook evolution aloft proves that for many of us this just isn't our winter. 

That really is unfortunate. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’d be surprised if Kevin got another foot, but it’s not out of the envelope of possibilities. If he grabs the western edge of the deformation band, then it could pile up quickly for a few hours. 

So what you're saying is that if that happens, he was always right and meteorology over modelology and some people never learn?

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