Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Or...3km NAM

I'd be able to get in some yard work Saturday if that played out.  lol

[moneypitmike]

16 minutes ago, mattm4242 said:

Harvey not messing around. Wow

Which side of 84 does Kevin live on? 

[JC-CT]

Just now, JKEisMan said:

Is it usually out this early. Seems early to me?

on the off hours, yes.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

There will most likely be some places in Central MA that get 10" and somebody 10-15mi away gets double that.  

I would like to see this two low crap end..  I think we still have a chance for this to come west

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Which side of 84 does Kevin live on? 

you know what side...Harv called up Ryan to consult before putting his map out

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

So those fantasy 30-40" amounts a week ago might come true?

Shit...

Sometimes the big early looks come back

 

[weatherwiz]

18z NAM BDL bufkit 

[Damage In Tolland]

Watches back to the border 

[moneypitmike]

How funny would this be? 

[ineedsnow]

Icon bumped west with its qpf output

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Watches back to the border 

In MA watches cut off about 5mi W of my house actually.

[wxsniss]

Not WDrag level, but still a keeper for archives, just an excerpt... and finally dropped the "B" word:

In addition, we are increasingly concerned about blizzard or near-
blizzard conditions developing. With 925mb winds at 75 kts,
temperatures in the teens to low 20s, it is looking likely that
blowing snow would result in significantly reduced or near-zero
visibilities at times for southeastern MA. Right now, we are most
confident in blizzard conditions developing from Plymouth county
into Cape/Islands. It is not out of the question that the Providence
to Boston corridor could come into play but we need to see further
confirmation of the westward trend. The silver lining is that
because we are dealing with dry powdery fluff, there is less of a
concern for snow loading issues except for parts of the Outer Cape
and Nantucket due to the coastal front.

Do want to briefly touch on the potential for exceptional to extreme
snowfall rates. Both NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings show 80-90 units
of omega coinciding with the favorable snow growth region. Given
that a double barrel low could develop with the potential for an eye-
like feature at some point, wherever the mesoscale snow band sets up
could see 3 to even 4 inches per hour snowfall rates. With this
forecast package, we have capped the totals at 24 inches. But if we
get more confidence (especially if the GFS comes further west in
line with the international guidance), the forecast amounts for
southeastern MA could go up into the 30 to 36 inches range. And with
the winds gusting over 50 to 60 mph and temps well below freezing,
stay off the roads on Saturday if possible.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

RGEM has been surprisingly consistent the past few runs with the placement of the deform goodies. Moreso than any other model at this point. 

[DavisStraight]

Wow, just catching up, is Cantore going to report live in Scooters front yard?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

How funny would this be? 

We would get some hall of fame posts from Ray, JC-CT, T-Blizz etc...

[MJO812]

I'm jealous guys

Enjoy

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Wow, just catching up, is Cantore going to report live in Scooters front yard?

I’ll send my wife away then.  

[CT Valley Dryslot]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

In MA watches cut off about 5mi W of my house actually.

Should have just issued watches for the whole forceast area and just left it at

 "the potential exists for 6" or more of snow, but exact amounts are unable to be pinpointed at this time. This is a dynamic storm with many variables still to be worked out. This watch serves as notice to the public to prepare for what may be a major snowstorm."

[Cyclone-68]

I can’t ever remember Harvey going that aggressive with snow totals 

[weatherwiz]

I am hardcore praying the GFS is west...even if it's just a smidgity-poo west.  

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Icon bumped west with its qpf output

ICON is around 12-16" here...

[nutmegfriar]

Ryan staying somewhat conservative (rightly so).  Can always bump figures with more model consistency.  Then again, he can always throttle back, too.

[78Blizzard]

If the mesos are right, they will have schooled the Euro, CMC, and the 12k NAM.  How often has that happened?

[wxsniss]

Wow

Metrowest 18z Sat:

[CT Valley Dryslot]

6-12 for the valley to 495 feels like a lock at this point.

[mahk_webstah]

A storm that has been projected to be so deep for a week now is likely to end up on the west end of the model projections I think.  Historic maybe all-time for some spots.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

How funny would this be? 

Who inside 95 wouldn't take that and run though?

[Chrisrotary12]

 

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

THEY END UP CONSOLIDATING OH MY GOD!!!!! CRUSHER FOR CONNECTICUT!!!! May have to pull out a 30-36'' contour somewhere OMGGG

It's really too bad that nearly all of the CT peeps except you and Kevin jumped off the bandwagon. We tried to tell them to stay the course, but they didn't listen and we left them on the side of the road. Too bad for them really.

[mattm4242]

2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I can’t ever remember Harvey going that aggressive with snow totals 

I just watched him, to get a better idea. He’s really confident, said it’s a combo of what the models are showing, but also what he’s seen with these setups in the past.

[Snowcrazed71]

36 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Exactly. There's something weird going on.

The fact that 30% of the Euro Ens members don't even give Boston 6" shows that this setup is really freaking challenging.

Well I guess they're being safe as they just posted the winter storm watches for Hartford and Litchfield County now as well no, but I'm sure you already saw that LOL