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nj2va

Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

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7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Models are just tools

Like a pair of plyers  for painting or a paintbrush for hammering in nails-Tools

Your forecast did great...

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Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. 

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5 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. 

IAD soundings showed a +1c warm layer between 800-825 leading up to that storm. The surface was plenty cold - it hit 20 here last night - but the cold wasn’t deep enough for all layers to get below freezing all the way into the metros.  We didn’t have the dynamics in place or mid level lows closing to our south to keep the mid levels at  bay. I  experienced freezing rain in sub 20-25 degree conditions multiple times up in NY. It sucks man. 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

IAD soundings showed a +1c warm layer between 800-825 leading up to that storm. The surface was plenty cold - it hit 20 here last night - but the cold wasn’t deep enough for all layers to get below freezing all the way into the metros.  We didn’t have the dynamics in place or mid level lows closing to our south to keep the mid levels at  bay. I  experienced freezing rain in sub 20-25 degree conditions multiple times up in NY. It sucks man. 

I mean for potentially overnight tonight. 

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7 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. 

The mid level winds are still out of the southwest...the screaming tropical jet has passed though...so that could be easily overcome and the warm layer mixed out if there was any moderate to heavy precip...but extremely light precip won't be able to mix out the left over pockets of mid level warmth lingering and the SW winds aloft wont help scour it out either.  If we actually do get some decent banding of legit precip I bet it would change to snow.  

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29 and cloudy.

Looks like some weak lift overnight will result in very light precip- probably mostly freezing drizzle. Then lets see what happens tomorrow morning with the weak wave. Probably anything 'significant' will be right along the coast or offshore(and mostly to the NE), but guidance is not in good agreement. Whatever happens it should be pretty light.

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. 

The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. 

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. 

That stuff "blossoming" in northern GA is what's coming our way. That looks pretty good so far. 

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8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. 

Some Guidance has precip developing to our SW and heading this direction by 0z. Looks like it’s changing back to snow pretty easily under heavier banding out west. I’m sure something will ruin it, but hey, I’ll root for a quick additional inch or two, why not… 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. 

Did you peak at the 18Z GFS? It still is showing 0.4”+ (!!) liquid for the DC area until tomorrow afternoon. And in the very short term, 0.1-0.2” liquid between 7 pm and 1 am. It’s all alone at this point.

After the totality of everything this season, this is just another example of how degraded model performance has been. 

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I mean… totally being a weenie here, but I can definitely see how this overperforms if we can manage to get a decent swath of moderate precip overhead overnight. Won’t take much. Also won’t take much to rip those chances to shreds. Sounds like a wait and see kind of deal.  Shit.. if I can squeeze another 1.5” out of this to get me to double digits for the storm, I’ll weenie it out and rest my hopes on a presumed failure. :lol:

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8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. 

Was watching ch 7 and they showed the HRRR which said precip overnight. This would be interesting

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Just now, H2O said:

Was watching ch 7 and they showed the HRRR which said precip overnight. This would be interesting

Have already seen a little freezing mist/drizzle in the past half hour or so. Slight glaze on some of the bushes. Nothing significant thus far. Plow is stuck on our street right now

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Have already seen a little freezing mist/drizzle in the past half hour or so. Slight glaze on some of the bushes. Nothing significant thus far. Plow is stuck on our street right now

Same. Glad I shoveled but now things will get slick

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Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. 

I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door:lol:

 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. 

I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door:lol:

 

Careful...you're going to get pooped on by weenies now. 

"LET US BE MISERABLE." "HOW DARE YOU NOT BE UPSET"

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Just now, WVclimo said:

Freezing fog and mist past three hours here at 26 degrees.  Getting very slick.  Rural roads are a mess.

Yes...pretty much impossible to walk around here...I tried, but almost bit it like 5 times.  

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Nothing super significant, but the radar does seem to have a lot of very light returns locally. Guessing it's all freezing mist/drizzle. Does seem to be a tiny bit of enhancement the past few frames. I'm using a sensitive color table in GR, though.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. 

I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door:lol:

 

I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits.  The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95.  My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. 

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