psuhoffman Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Models are just tools Like a pair of plyers for painting or a paintbrush for hammering in nails-Tools Your forecast did great... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ovechkin Posted February 18 Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jayyy Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. IAD soundings showed a +1c warm layer between 800-825 leading up to that storm. The surface was plenty cold - it hit 20 here last night - but the cold wasn’t deep enough for all layers to get below freezing all the way into the metros. We didn’t have the dynamics in place or mid level lows closing to our south to keep the mid levels at bay. I experienced freezing rain in sub 20-25 degree conditions multiple times up in NY. It sucks man. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ovechkin Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: IAD soundings showed a +1c warm layer between 800-825 leading up to that storm. The surface was plenty cold - it hit 20 here last night - but the cold wasn’t deep enough for all layers to get below freezing all the way into the metros. We didn’t have the dynamics in place or mid level lows closing to our south to keep the mid levels at bay. I experienced freezing rain in sub 20-25 degree conditions multiple times up in NY. It sucks man. I mean for potentially overnight tonight. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. The mid level winds are still out of the southwest...the screaming tropical jet has passed though...so that could be easily overcome and the warm layer mixed out if there was any moderate to heavy precip...but extremely light precip won't be able to mix out the left over pockets of mid level warmth lingering and the SW winds aloft wont help scour it out either. If we actually do get some decent banding of legit precip I bet it would change to snow. 1 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
clskinsfan Posted February 18 Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted February 18 29 and cloudy. Looks like some weak lift overnight will result in very light precip- probably mostly freezing drizzle. Then lets see what happens tomorrow morning with the weak wave. Probably anything 'significant' will be right along the coast or offshore(and mostly to the NE), but guidance is not in good agreement. Whatever happens it should be pretty light. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kmlwx Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jayyy Posted February 18 Precip blossoming over KY a bit. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BristowWx Posted February 18 And then t ended. That was strange. Just popped up and then gone. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
peribonca Posted February 18 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. That stuff "blossoming" in northern GA is what's coming our way. That looks pretty good so far. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jayyy Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. Some Guidance has precip developing to our SW and heading this direction by 0z. Looks like it’s changing back to snow pretty easily under heavier banding out west. I’m sure something will ruin it, but hey, I’ll root for a quick additional inch or two, why not… 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Awilson Posted February 18 Appalachians eat everything up Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lpaschall Posted February 18 Icy mist up in Westminster. Cleared driveway and cars around 1pm and now a glaze on all surfaces and a mist coming down. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gymengineer Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. Did you peak at the 18Z GFS? It still is showing 0.4”+ (!!) liquid for the DC area until tomorrow afternoon. And in the very short term, 0.1-0.2” liquid between 7 pm and 1 am. It’s all alone at this point. After the totality of everything this season, this is just another example of how degraded model performance has been. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18 Misting. About to get sporty on the roads out here. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jayyy Posted February 18 I mean… totally being a weenie here, but I can definitely see how this overperforms if we can manage to get a decent swath of moderate precip overhead overnight. Won’t take much. Also won’t take much to rip those chances to shreds. Sounds like a wait and see kind of deal. Shit.. if I can squeeze another 1.5” out of this to get me to double digits for the storm, I’ll weenie it out and rest my hopes on a presumed failure. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dailylurker Posted February 18 Freezing drizzle atm. Went out to fly my drone around and check things out and had to scratch the flight due to possible icing lol 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
H2O Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. Was watching ch 7 and they showed the HRRR which said precip overnight. This would be interesting Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EB89 Posted February 18 Have freezing mist/fog Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kmlwx Posted February 18 Just now, H2O said: Was watching ch 7 and they showed the HRRR which said precip overnight. This would be interesting Have already seen a little freezing mist/drizzle in the past half hour or so. Slight glaze on some of the bushes. Nothing significant thus far. Plow is stuck on our street right now Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
H2O Posted February 18 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Have already seen a little freezing mist/drizzle in the past half hour or so. Slight glaze on some of the bushes. Nothing significant thus far. Plow is stuck on our street right now Same. Glad I shoveled but now things will get slick 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bob Chill Posted February 18 Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door 1 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kmlwx Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door Careful...you're going to get pooped on by weenies now. "LET US BE MISERABLE." "HOW DARE YOU NOT BE UPSET" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WVclimo Posted February 18 Freezing fog and mist past three hours here at 26 degrees. Getting very slick. Rural roads are a mess. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Deck Pic Posted February 18 Just now, WVclimo said: Freezing fog and mist past three hours here at 26 degrees. Getting very slick. Rural roads are a mess. Yes...pretty much impossible to walk around here...I tried, but almost bit it like 5 times. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kmlwx Posted February 18 Nothing super significant, but the radar does seem to have a lot of very light returns locally. Guessing it's all freezing mist/drizzle. Does seem to be a tiny bit of enhancement the past few frames. I'm using a sensitive color table in GR, though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits. The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95. My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites