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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs

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24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Ji clearly has his twin troll now...coincidentally they both post at Jay's wintry mix

When a run looks good I’ll weenie out with the rest of you. When things are trending better I am right there celebrating. But I’m not one of the people that does the “let’s lower the bar and pretend there isn’t a bad trend happening and how dare someone point out that said model got worse 4 runs in a row” type person either.  Maybe this amps up at the last minute. I expected it too. I see no reason this gets shunted south. But it’s not a positive sign that EVERY guidance we have has trended dryer and more anemic the last 24 hours.  Frankly I don’t understand the “don’t say negative stuff” mentality. Ignoring bad trends and warning signs doesn’t make them not real it just sets you up to be disappointed. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When a run looks good I’ll weenie out with the rest of you. When things are trending better I am right there celebrating. But I’m not one of the people that does the “let’s lower the bar and pretend there isn’t a bad trend happening and how dare someone point out that said model got worse 4 runs in a row” type person either.  Maybe this amps up at the last minute. I expected it too. I see no reason this gets shunted south. But it’s not a positive sign that EVERY guidance we have has trended dryer and more anemic the last 24 hours.  Frankly I don’t understand the “don’t say negative stuff” mentality. Ignoring bad trends and warning signs doesn’t make them not real it just sets you up to be disappointed. 

To me it's not that you say it or point it out it's that you tend to drive your point home until it's dead and buried. Could just be me though...I don't get too high or low but I do get annoyed...just my opinion anyway I still respect and appreciate your knowledge. 

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18z ICON drier and a bit SE. It’s like .1 wetter for 95 but in general more dry for NW areas. The area of the heaviest precip moved a bit SE.

18z Rgem throws some more precip more NW compared to 12z

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

NWS updated

The air aloft is cold enough to support snow, and despite the
warm conditions this afternoon, there should be enough dry air
for wetbulb cooling to take place, causing any rain or rain/snow
mix at the onset to change to snow for most areas. Even still,
temperatures will be marginal at the surface near to perhaps
even a degree or two above freezing across the metro areas and
southern MD, to perhaps near or a degree/two below freezing near
the Mason-Dixon Line and the higher elevations. Also, with the
warm conditions leading up to the event, that will affect the
SLR`s as well. Therefore, the accumulating snow will be
dependent on the heavier snowfall rates, which are possible
given the stronger frontogenetical forcing that is showing up in
much of the guidance. The banding snow may overtake the marginal
temperatures for a period Sunday morning, causing the snow to
accumulate. Have continued with the Winter Storm Warnings for
the Metro areas as well as northern and central Virginia, and
central Maryland. These areas have the best chance for heavier
precipitation with temps close enough to freezing for 3-6" most
likely. Farther west across the northern Shenandoah Valley into
the Potomac and Allegheny Highlands, Winter Weather Advisories
are up for 2-4" of snow most likely. Temperatures will be colder
leading to higher SLR`s, but the better chance for heavier
snowfall rates will be to the east. Across southern MD, a Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect. Despite the heaviest
precipitation rates across this area, temps will be a little
warmer causing snow to mix with rain at times.

The confidence in the forecast is lower than it would typically
be because, the snowfall accumulation will be dependent on
exactly where the heavier bands of snow setup since temps are
marginal.

Precipitation will move out of the area Sunday afternoon and
most areas will rise well above freezing, causing any snow that
does stick to melt. The one exception will be along the ridges
of the Allegheny Highlands.

I’m having a hard time reading this small font

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

To me it's not that you say it or point it out it's that you tend to drive your point home until it's dead and buried. Could just be me though...I don't get too high or low but I do get annoyed...just my opinion anyway I still respect and appreciate your knowledge. 

Fair enough. I have some mild OCD (legit not joking) so that’s very likely.  Radar looks better then guidance att.  We can always play that game lol. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

I grew up by Archbishop Curley HS in ne Baltimore at like 50 ' elevation.  I lived the disappointments  through age 14 . 83', 87' helped a bit though . I even have a couple vivid 79' memories of my dads huge home built snow tunnels for me and my bro.

Ayeee i went to school at Curley.. Home of the Friars :thumbsup:

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22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m having a hard time reading this small font

Lots of “mays” plus low confidence nonsense in that statement 

the ow confidence malarkey needs to go.  I do like CWG boom and bust but not the tapping about low confidence

Confident to me means you think it is 80-100% gonna happen. I really don’t even know what low confidence is supposed to mean, it’s like  sweet sour . You think it is low probability?  Thats  not confidence in any form . Get back to me when you are willing to state a forecast  without weasel disclaimers and qualifiers. 

 

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Just now, ThePhotoGuy said:

46 degrees. Feels like a snowstorm.

I was surprised SHA didn't brine Route 50 & Ritchie Highway today. 

There was one just now on Ritchie… Like 2 nozzles working lol 

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At this point, comparing current OBS to models is definitely the best tool we have to get an idea of how this will go and is much more productive than the live and die by each kuchera snow map approach some take. 
 

Know your climo folks! If you live on the water, you’re probably not seeing more snow than PSU or mappy in a marginal storm. That’s just.... the reality we live in here in our CWA

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20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Lots of “mays” plus low confidence nonsense in that statement 

the ow confidence malarkey needs to go.  I do like CWG boom and bust but not the tapping about low confidence

Confident to me means you think it is 80-100% gonna happen. I really don’t even know what low confidence is supposed to mean, it’s like  sweet sour . You think it is low probability?  Thats  not confidence in any form . Get back to me when you are willing to state a forecast  without weasel disclaimers and qualifiers. 

 

NWS released a statement that Nostradamus was unavailable for this afternoon's discussion. They will make it up with winning lottery numbers later..

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Mets in Central VA have no idea what this storm is going to do,  DT has been hedging is first call.  This one may surprise some folks

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