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Ginx snewx

February the climo snow month

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS looks great. Lock it In.

Just like we all thought before the season. Cold/snowy February.

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36 minutes ago, dryslot said:

lol, The vid on TMZ after that one was the idiot running on the field at the SB last night, I can't stop laughing after seeing that.

He tried to slide feet first at the goal line.  What a wuss.  He should have dove head first for the TD.  He was going to get pummeled regardless.  At least go out like a man!

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just like we all thought before the season. Cold/snowy February.

All La Niña winters start in Feb.

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2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

He tried to slide feet first at the goal line.  What a wuss.  He should have dove head first for the TD.  He was going to get pummeled regardless.  At least go out like a man!

Ha ha.

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29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies look nice. Cooled off from last week which wasn’t bad at all.

They continued to the winter pattern into early March unlike last week.

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cosgrove has been insistent the pattern goes through March, and breaks in early April....warms up quickly, so we actually have a decent spring.

I agree, at this point.

You mean we go from winter right into summer?

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I figured that video would pop up here at some point, and I know this isn’t the thread for it but this is the worst week for winter backcountry enthusiasts in a long time. I believe the toll was 15 dead last week (the worst since 1910) including one in NH up at Washington, and then the two notable tragic incidents that took the lives of 3 and 4 people in CO and UT. The incident in Utah... I have some close friends who knew them and they are hurting. Bright young people all in there 20s. If you are spending time in the winter backcountry this year, please please be extra careful. The slide on Washington was pretty small and buried the victim 13ft deep...

https://mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/avalanche-fatality-ammonoosuc-ravine/

 

CFB6FA5A-128F-443A-9EA9-ED098478AE42.jpeg

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cosgrove has been insistent the pattern goes through March, and breaks in early April....warms up quickly, so we actually have a decent spring.

I agree, at this point.

Me too ...sort of -

things is, I don't base this on previous poor spring/warmth repeater years - ... easy to assume based upon recent persistence.  Our return rate on "feeling" warm in spring is 1 in 10... actually, maybe 1 in 3...   2/3rds of the time you sail away to foreign soils and forget this god forsaken useless cold anal hole even exists...  You guys may love your winters here - but you pay or it through early June sometimes with this BD up the butt climate ... You couldn't get a f'n Svalbard native to opt to come here in April -  

This "could" be a year where the rarer warm manifesting later in March. When?  

My thinking in summary is that the SSW/-AO happened earlier in the winter ( early Jan..) as opposed to other years in the data - when they occur in Feb...your bruised bums until July...  But the earlier onset/gestation rate gives it a chance to extinguish .. prior to getting too deep into the transition season, such as years when they occurred and modulated the AO later on..  Those years you end up bum bruised until July - .. heh

But, the La Nina springs tend to be warm.

HC expansion is a constructive foot-print in the hemisphere..

Maybe ..just maybe the two synergize a warm spring and ... maybe a some big June and early July heat waves..

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10 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

I figured that video would pop up here at some point, and I know this isn’t the thread for it but this is the worst week for winter backcountry enthusiasts in a long time. I believe the toll was 15 dead last week (the worst since 1910) including one in NH up at Washington, and then the two notable tragic incidents that took the lives of 3 and 4 people in CO and UT. The incident in Utah... I have some close friends who knew them and they are hurting. Bright young people all in there 20s. If you are spending time in the winter backcountry this year, please please be extra careful. The slide on Washington was pretty small and buried the victim 13ft deep...

https://mountwashingtonavalanchecenter.org/avalanche-fatality-ammonoosuc-ravine/

 

CFB6FA5A-128F-443A-9EA9-ED098478AE42.jpeg

More folks out there because of distancing rules at the resorts therefore more chances for disaster? Maybe that explains the numbers somewhat. 

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

More folks out there because of distancing rules at the resorts therefore more chances for disaster? Maybe that explains the numbers somewhat. 

Possibly. I’ve had some deep conversations with friends about how much of it is covid related. Pretty much every fatality has been someone with a good amount of experience in the backcountry. These victims didn’t just start touring this year because of covid. I still primarily blame the extremely fragile snowpack out west this year, there is just a nasty weak layer, but I can’t discount covid having an impact. One good point I was told was the experienced riders are rolling the dice more to beat the new backcountry users to the spots they have been riding for decades, and then there spot slides on them when they’ve never seen that slope slide before, and welp look what happens :(

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7 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Possibly. I’ve had some deep conversations with friends about how much of it is covid related. Pretty much every fatality has been someone with a good amount of experience in the backcountry. These victims didn’t just start touring this year because of covid. I still primarily blame the extremely fragile snowpack out west this year, there is just a nasty weak layer, but I can’t discount covid having an impact. One good point I was told was the experienced riders are rolling the dice more to beat the new backcountry users to the spots they have been riding for decades, and then there spot slides on them when they’ve never seen that slope slide before, and welp look what happens :(

That makes sense. I haven't seen any stats, but my gut tells me this year probably saw a large increase in people undertaking activities that promote individual alone time and social distancing, such as kayaking, rock climbing. hiking, mountain biking, snowmobiling, backcountry skiing, etc. This was exacerbated by gyms being closed or restricted. People needed to find other outlets for exercise.

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18 hours ago, dryslot said:

lol, The vid on TMZ after that one was the idiot running on the field at the SB last night, I can't stop laughing after seeing that.

Dude had some moves.

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Verbatim, the 12Z GFS is 2-3' for most of SNE/CNE, temps below 40, just winter as it's supposed to be.

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2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

After today's light snow....next two threats to keep eye on are 14th and 17th. Both have operational and ensemble support right now.

Not that you asked... but the 14th appears slated to steal the show ... it's massive. And may sweep dynamics out post its governing mechanics moving on...

It's got a multi teleconnector converging signal on the OV/NE regions ... and has for days and days, but there are limitations to structure.

Models have been struggling with the momentum/fast hemisphere ... Their handling is detrimental to the delicate timing involved with harmonic wave interference. We've been seeing a lot of what look more like WAA blown-open lows as a result.

Anyway, the 14th (GGEM for example ... or pick a recent GFS run - haven't seen the 12z just yet ) gets it done with a big busted ravioli too ...really more of a split open phase because of the stream bi- pass that resulting from too much fast flow.  But it may sweep all dynamics out when it leaves ...and then the 17th may need a pattern change away from N-stream ( 14th ...) to more purer S / stream to get a another system done. 

There are some hints of a more of a ENSO jet punching E when the SPV's leave southern Canada ...hell, maybe that's an attempt -

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wouldn’t flaunt that on SM though.

Exactly, pretty sure that’s illegal. Especially at that amount? I bet he gave the money to someone else to make the bet but still...

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