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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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EPS still trying to get more ridging out west for early February....we'll see if that sticks because that would provide a chance for something bigger. Note the lower heights down in the gulf....less SE ridge and less meat grinder.

image.png.81a8ba72466aceff620b8c77982a15f0.png

 

image.png.e3e551278163037986ac5ef7a5d99eb9.png

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS still trying to get more ridging out west for early February....we'll see if that sticks because that would provide a chance for something bigger. Note the lower heights down in the gulf....less SE ridge and less meat grinder.

image.png.81a8ba72466aceff620b8c77982a15f0.png

 

image.png.e3e551278163037986ac5ef7a5d99eb9.png

Encouraging. At some point the dam will break

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9 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You’ve been saying this for 2 weeks.

What do expect him to say. It's not coming. The winter is over. I did that a few days back. Have been very disappointed with the turnout thus far. However, I also can see this pattern yielding something very very big. Just had that vibe.

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2/1 looks really good on the ensembles. Only 8 days away! 

In all seriousness, the failed 1/29 system phasing offshore with the PV lobe is actually causing the 2/1 system to come in more favorable on last night’s guidance. 

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One thing you want to see on a longer range threat is strong cross-guidance ensemble support. 

Heres the EPS, GFS, and GEPS in that order:

image.png.67bba878fe2cd79df43e9b8226183589.png

image.png.1901b45ef6f3d5fe4980d1088e30d82c.png

image.png.a3ecbf5d4159eeb7e0b1d936445aab6d.png

For those who can’t handle the emotional roller coaster of failed storms, I’d suggest not checking back in until the 2nd half of this week. But this is at least a pretty strong guidance signal for a D8-9 threat. 

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