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Ginx snewx

February the climo snow month

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6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

My Birthday is on the 2nd.. Might get something around then?

Best month for a snow weenie to be born. Mine is the 10th. GEFS and EPS like your birthday 

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download (65).png

download (66).png

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  • Weenie 1

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EPS still trying to get more ridging out west for early February....we'll see if that sticks because that would provide a chance for something bigger. Note the lower heights down in the gulf....less SE ridge and less meat grinder.

image.png.81a8ba72466aceff620b8c77982a15f0.png

 

image.png.e3e551278163037986ac5ef7a5d99eb9.png

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS still trying to get more ridging out west for early February....we'll see if that sticks because that would provide a chance for something bigger. Note the lower heights down in the gulf....less SE ridge and less meat grinder.

image.png.81a8ba72466aceff620b8c77982a15f0.png

 

image.png.e3e551278163037986ac5ef7a5d99eb9.png

Encouraging. At some point the dam will break

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weeklies?

They are ok....-PNA/-NAO through 3rd week of Feb and then it seems to transition to more gradient with lower heights in SE Canada by end of month.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are ok....-PNA/-NAO through 3rd week of Feb and then it seems to transition to more gradient with lower heights in SE Canada by end of month.

Yeah I didn’t mind them at all. 

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AVG DAILY SNOWFALL
(Month avg/days)

OCT   .02
NOV   .16
DEC   .61
JAN   .63
FEB    .81
MAR  .56
APR   .18
MAY   .01

Not that this means anything this year.

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It can only go one way from here...so, it will come. It has to.

You’ve been saying this for 2 weeks.

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9 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You’ve been saying this for 2 weeks.

What do expect him to say. It's not coming. The winter is over. I did that a few days back. Have been very disappointed with the turnout thus far. However, I also can see this pattern yielding something very very big. Just had that vibe.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

image.jpeg

Played out? Lol

Lots of opportunities it seems on all LR modeling. Pattern change as we head into snow month.

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10 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You’ve been saying this for 2 weeks.

My bad for being a little hopeful. I’ll just post doom and gloom nauseating thoughts then because that’s the preferred contribution. 

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2/1 looks really good on the ensembles. Only 8 days away! 

In all seriousness, the failed 1/29 system phasing offshore with the PV lobe is actually causing the 2/1 system to come in more favorable on last night’s guidance. 

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33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Played out? Lol

Lots of opportunities it seems on all LR modeling. Pattern change as we head into snow month.

Yup. Feb 1-2 miller b has been showing up often to kick off the month. LFG.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2/1 looks really good on the ensembles. Only 8 days away! 

In all seriousness, the failed 1/29 system phasing offshore with the PV lobe is actually causing the 2/1 system to come in more favorable on last night’s guidance. 

image.png.0816418d8b71e3c541ba70566a7be049.png

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One thing you want to see on a longer range threat is strong cross-guidance ensemble support. 

Heres the EPS, GFS, and GEPS in that order:

image.png.67bba878fe2cd79df43e9b8226183589.png

image.png.1901b45ef6f3d5fe4980d1088e30d82c.png

image.png.a3ecbf5d4159eeb7e0b1d936445aab6d.png

For those who can’t handle the emotional roller coaster of failed storms, I’d suggest not checking back in until the 2nd half of this week. But this is at least a pretty strong guidance signal for a D8-9 threat. 

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