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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

MJO just refuses to go into phase 8.

It's negatively in interference wrt the ( La Nina + HC expansion)/2 footprint of the planetary state..

It doesn't mean it won't ultimately .. but the wave power has to become massive in order to supplant the former two ...which in tandem is actually a constructive interference ..probably creating some difficult to demonstrate empirical "synergistic" effects that really makes it hard ... It's probably back piling for another week and then it'll just decay having failed to get into that side of the RMM - ..or if it does...it's decaying ... Not likely to ever come around, nor be much of an influence on the genera circulation of the hemisphere.

It's not a late 7 - 8 - 1 - 2 favoring hemisphere this season.  

It's interesting too ... because the AO and MJO have a negative correlation on the left side of the RMM diagram/wave spacing.  Which means .. when it is negative, the MJO wave strength tends to be strong, and in those phases listed above.  Something else lurks and is compensation, interfering with that previous century- mode.

The MJO is a pattern enhancer - not a pattern forcer.  I have noted ( personally ..) since the 1990s, it seems lesser involving frankly.  When the hemisphere is in constructive interference, the wave propagates robustly ... and then there is indeed the appearance of synergistic feedback that makes it "look like" the MJO is the primary cause...  But when in negative interference, the hemisphere carries about in pattern morphologies that step on the MJO index - almost like ignore it.. heh - either absorbing it's mechanics and/or not allowing it to propagate at all; the forcing in the general circulation may appear nonexistent -

I also believe that as this HC expansion stuff continues to become more prevalent, any of these tropical source-origin indexes become gradually less successfully correlating over time. That includes the Pacifc ENSO package - .. but that's all hotly debated and in science ...

It's been a weird hemisphere ... really dating back to 2000 if we wanna really dig.. but, particularly the last 5 years with the incredible velocities and gradient saturated looks.  It has not mattered really whether warm or cool or neutral ENSO's were afoot - owing most likely to the 6 dm z-coordinate growth of the HC since 1970 ( as is documented and formally published ) and that increases the ambient gradient overall ...particularly during Boreal winter ( probably in the S- hemisphere winters as well...)  But these velocities ?  They tend to muck with correlations/teleconnector signals, because fast flows 'stretch' wave lengths ...and that means that R-wave fixtures tend to 'cog' to the next gear - so to speak.. Such that what one thinks of a +PNA in 1980 may not really set up the same way now... ( so to speak...).   But I'm babbling off the MJO discussion point .. .ha

 

 

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