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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I honestly was having fun earlier, and it appears I got Winter Wolf to howl and Ice to start boozing. FTW.

I was just asking you a question..was trying to see where you were coming from is all. Wasn’t howling at all bro. Lol. 

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14 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

By the time you get into second half of February elevation becomes a thing and I’m not high..... that’s why I cut it off at feb 15 or 20.... somewhere in there....

This is just plain funny.  

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Where the hell is this good pattern that people promised me ? The models keep pushing it back.

No sh*t.  This happens every year. 

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Alleluia !!

Finally we have the GDAS on the same page for this damn thing ...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2021.png

time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2021.png

 

We did mention that they may update the system when 000/Holiday traffic returned to office well I'll be!    wow... Yeah, so that is a SSW... no question...

And, I have a lot of experience with following these over the years, and I can tell just by looking at the contouring as that is emerging...that is downwelling as the emergence will probably show.  Not 100% sure of that ...but that appears based on historical referencing like it will show a node ...probably in the 50 to 70 sigma levels... Then, again out toward week two in the 100 ...so on and so on...

Having said that, the AO/ .. PV response/correlation is not today.  It is not next week... In fact, it may only start to effect the stability of the PV verticality by the end of week two... At which time ( probably...) the guidance et al will be flagging either another -AO, ...or, a revitalized one.   Thing is, I have seen a couple of cases of -AO ... lost in the din of a -AO winter.  I think I read tweet from someone who mentioned that it could be 'merging' with ongoing other shit, recently - boo yah to whomever did because ... yeah that happens.  In either case, 20 days is the standard lag correlation for thus who are interested ( probably Will from what I've gathered...heh ) 

Having said all this part dieux .. As any would-be PV break- down or ...failure to break up leads to a new break down ...whatever, any blocking could favor cold hemispheric conveyors over in Euras and Russian... keep that in mind.  We could have a nice SSW --> -AO circuit and end up not getting it here until the Global wave numbers rotated on around just in time for April through June...  kidding

Another way to detect the legitimacy of  SSW ...as it relates to the plausible slowinging of the PV circulation eddy... is the U-coordinate wind anomaly, which shows up nicely in tandem with this the emergence in the thermal layout..

time_pres_UGRD_ANOM_JFM_NH_2021.png

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What happens when a massive -AO from the SSW meets an engorged Hadley Cell?

 

 

The Dawn Awakening?

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22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I was just asking you a question..was trying to see where you were coming from is all. Wasn’t howling at all bro. Lol. 

Come at me, BRO!!!

 

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1 hour ago, ice1972 said:

This is what I’m saying.....this quiet stretch is infuriating all by itself but the sting would be less if we still had some pack OTG from December....but no....we got tropical rains instead.....

The flavor of the winter matters....and this flavor sucks.....and we’re running out of time quickly....4 maybe 5 weeks left.....

savor the flavor my neighbor. 2019-20 vibes lfg

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But don't - please - group me in with those SSW abusers ...

I've never pushed that as a very dependable device for much other than indirectly, with AO modulation and so forth ... But, that can and I have said so many times, mean anything.  I just said so up there - 

-AO could come and go, and be hidden inside a neggie hemmy and we don't really notice it.  Or, it could force a -AO ..but the conveyors setup and offload somewhere else because of just where the blocking happens to orient... 

There is almost 0 predictive skill in using SSW --> -AO to predict specific weather phenomenon ...and I haven't actually seen any formal reviewed work that correlates it to snow... temperature patterning is implicit, sure.  From that I suppose we can infer there must be a correlation - duh...cold ...snow ? right -   But, distribution is different every time and not ubiquitous as far as I'm aware.  

It's like a adding vanilla to the cake mix - it's not absolutely necessary and it might help it taste yummier. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But don't - please - group me in with those SSW abusers ...

I've never pushed that as a very dependable device for much other than indirectly, with AO modulation and so forth ... But, that can and I have said so many times, mean anything.  I just said so up there - 

-AO could come and go, and be hidden inside a neggie hemmy and we don't really notice it.  Or, it could force a -AO ..but the conveyors off load somewhere else because of just where blocking ends up orienting... 

There is almost 0 predictive skill in using SSW --> -AO to predict specific weather phenomenon ...and I haven't actually seen any formal reviewed work that correlates it to snow... temperature patterning is implicit, sure.  From that I suppose we can infer there must be a correction - duh...cold ...snow ? right -   But, distribution is not different every time and no ubiquitous as far as I'm aware.  

It's like a adding vanilla to the cake mix - it's not absolutely necessary and it might help it taste yummier. 

Too bad every SSW wasn't like Feb 2018.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But don't - please - group me in with those SSW abusers ...

I've never pushed that as a very dependable device for much other than indirectly, with AO modulation and so forth ... But, that can and I have said so many times, mean anything.  I just said so up there - 

-AO could come and go, and be hidden inside a neggie hemmy and we don't really notice it.  Or, it could force a -AO ..but the conveyors setup and offload somewhere else because of just where the blocking happens to orient... 

There is almost 0 predictive skill in using SSW --> -AO to predict specific weather phenomenon ...and I haven't actually seen any formal reviewed work that correlates it to snow... temperature patterning is implicit, sure.  From that I suppose we can infer there must be a correction - duh...cold ...snow ? right -   But, distribution is not different every time and no ubiquitous as far as I'm aware.  

It's like a adding vanilla to the cake mix - it's not absolutely necessary and it might help it taste yummier. 

I think the most "useful" aspect of an SSW going on right now for snow lovers is that it would act as a major vehicle to disrupt the baseline La Nina Feburary climo (even if we take your stance that it is a muted ENSO climo signal with hadley cells....if anything that probably makes the Feb la nina climo even worse). Feb Nina is usually not all that favorable for our region unless we have some -AO assist or other disruption and the SSW could be that disruption we want.

 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the most "useful" aspect of an SSW going on right now for snow lovers is that it would act as a major vehicle to disrupt the baseline La Nina Feburary climo (even if we take your stance that it is a muted ENSO climo signal with hadley cells....if anything that probably makes the Feb la nina climo even worse). Feb Nina is usually not all that favorable for our region unless we have some -AO assist or other disruption and the SSW could be that disruption we want.

 

Exactly. That is the potential monkey wrench in the warm Feb idea....could be like a Feb 2001, or Feb 96.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the most "useful" aspect of an SSW going on right now for snow lovers is that it would act as a major vehicle to disrupt the baseline La Nina Feburary climo (even if we take your stance that it is a muted ENSO climo signal with hadley cells....if anything that probably makes the Feb la nina climo even worse). Feb Nina is usually not all that favorable for our region unless we have some -AO assist or other disruption and the SSW could be that disruption we want.

 

Wouldn’t a Nina be warmer but northern stream active, so good for NNE? I find myself craving a late blooming Miller B that’s blows up over BOS. Used to hate those damn things in the MA. 

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Wouldn’t a Nina be warmer but northern stream active, so good for NNE? I find myself craving a late blooming Miller B that’s blows up over BOS. Used to hate those damn things in the MA. 

It depends but yeah, Latitude helps. Hopefully you’re -20 and have ice crystals while it’s 25F and snowing here. 

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Calling for a mid month cutter following the next two whiffs will certainly do just that.

If we get a cutter, I'll live with it. Log on to airbnb, $100 a night anywhere north , it's better than going to a Bruins game 

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Models are looking  beautiful for mid January. Many people have pointed this timeframe out.

 

Hopefully it happens

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29 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

If we get a cutter, I'll live with it. Log on to airbnb, $100 a night anywhere north , it's better than going to a Bruins game 

Let’s get a cutter MLK weekend as I’ll potentially benefit when I get to Chicago.

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Models are looking  beautiful for mid January. Many people have pointed this timeframe out.
 
Hopefully it happens
Another week away at least. I'm getting impatient

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

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22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Let’s get a cutter MLK weekend as I’ll potentially benefit when I get to Chicago.

Can't believe you'd sacrifice us like that.  Wait, yes I can.  Especially for snow!

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Do any mets here know whether any of the global models have the capability to factor into their prediction systems the effects of the onset of a major SSW?

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the most "useful" aspect of an SSW going on right now for snow lovers is that it would act as a major vehicle to disrupt the baseline La Nina Feburary climo (even if we take your stance that it is a muted ENSO climo signal with hadley cells....if anything that probably makes the Feb la nina climo even worse). Feb Nina is usually not all that favorable for our region unless we have some -AO assist or other disruption and the SSW could be that disruption we want.

 

Hopefully we can continue to keep punching above-average height anomalies into Greenland and into the Arctic region. The big key regarding the SSW too is the structure of the pattern in the upper troposphere and what's already in place. Maybe the SSW would be responsible, or a driver, into plunging colder air back into Canada and perhaps eventually our way, but if the North American pattern is kinda garbage preceding the SSW...it may not be much help for us. 

What I really like is the signal for a major ridge to become established across the eastern Pacific...very similar to what we actually saw much of the summer and fall. There also continue to be signals for higher pressure around Greenland and if that can remain the case and be strong the PV should get attacked and weakened.

Question: Looking at 18z GFS ~200hr...is that classified as a wave-2 or wave-3 pattern?

gfs_z500aNorm_nhem_33.png

 

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Watch us get shut out during the projected good period, everyone will be in agony seeing the NINA Feb in the models, then the SSW gives us blocking with the negative PNA and we overrun ourselves to a decent winter.

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10 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I'll take 60 more  of today thanks. A beauty.

Atta boy

who needs snow when you got days like today.

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