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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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December worked out okay, except for the fact that it was PNA and not RNA....this caused the se and se to flip anomalies from what was forecast.

Most of the forecast for January still appears valid...trends for less "blocking" and perhaps more PNA intervals again as the  month progresses. The lower heights towards AK have already began materializing, but the N ATL ridding has not yet began to abate. I would look for signs of that in longer range guidance as the New Year approaches.

January 2021 Outlook

January Forecast H5 Composite:

The active winter pattern may carry over into the first week or so of January, or it may not. This is nebulous, but what is clear is that any residual positive height anomalies should vacate the higher latitudes, as lower heights retrograde towards Alaska. The structure and character of la nina begins to assume a more modoki state, as it peaks and begins to decay. The Aleutian ridge relocates to the southeast, away from Alaska. Heights near the pole should not be exceeding low, nor the temperature departures extremely high like January 20202. But nevertheless, the pattern grows relatively hostile to sustained wintery interludes in the east.
 
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.42.0

January Forecast Temperature Composite:

Temperatures should be near normal to 1 degree above across northern New England, 1-3 degrees above normal in central and southern New England, and 2-3 degrees above in the mid atlantic. Any storm activity will entail large precipitation type issues near the coast, with the most snow reserved for northern New England. The RNA pattern should only strengthen, as overall storm activity wanes.
 
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.29.3
 

January Forecast Precipitation Composite:

A lull in winter for the northeast, especially below the latitude of northern New England and east of New York state, should develop during the month, as storms becomes less frequent and the predominate track shifts inland. Some seasonal cold bouts should be sufficient for some mountain snow, and perhaps some "front end" wintery precipitation further to the south.
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.40.2
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11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December worked out okay, except for the fact that it was PNA and not RNA....this caused the se and se to flip anomalies from what was forecast.

Most of the forecast for January still appears valid...trends for less "blocking" and perhaps more PNA intervals again as the  month progresses. The lower heights towards AK have already began materializing, but the N ATL ridding has not yet began to abate. I would look for signs of that in longer range guidance as the New Year approaches.

January 2021 Outlook

January Forecast H5 Composite:

The active winter pattern may carry over into the first week or so of January, or it may not. This is nebulous, but what is clear is that any residual positive height anomalies should vacate the higher latitudes, as lower heights retrograde towards Alaska. The structure and character of la nina begins to assume a more modoki state, as it peaks and begins to decay. The Aleutian ridge relocates to the southeast, away from Alaska. Heights near the pole should not be exceeding low, nor the temperature departures extremely high like January 20202. But nevertheless, the pattern grows relatively hostile to sustained wintery interludes in the east.
 
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.42.0

January Forecast Temperature Composite:

Temperatures should be near normal to 1 degree above across northern New England, 1-3 degrees above normal in central and southern New England, and 2-3 degrees above in the mid atlantic. Any storm activity will entail large precipitation type issues near the coast, with the most snow reserved for northern New England. The RNA pattern should only strengthen, as overall storm activity wanes.
 
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.29.3
 

January Forecast Precipitation Composite:

A lull in winter for the northeast, especially below the latitude of northern New England and east of New York state, should develop during the month, as storms becomes less frequent and the predominate track shifts inland. Some seasonal cold bouts should be sufficient for some mountain snow, and perhaps some "front end" wintery precipitation further to the south.
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.40.2

This was obviously from November, and as Kevin pointed out, likely needs to be adjusted somewhat. Although the seasonal forecast is graded as is, I do update as the season unfolds and will do so tomorrow.

I do not expect a January 2011 redux, as some guidance implies, but I do not expect it to be a bad month, either.

Obviously there is some blocking in the composite.

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9 hours ago, mreaves said:

You try way too hard. 

I honestly have no idea what you are talking about, just enjoying winter and happy there is no arctic air around.

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18 minutes ago, REH said:

Actually they were the first to show what looked like a great pattern around New Years go to crap, while the eps still looked decent. 

The PAC jet is active thanks to more Nina phases of the MJO. It's possible this becomes more favorable, but it will take 2+ weeks I think, and that may only be temporary. My personal opinion is that we need the Atlantic to really help. I think the Pacific overall will not be favorable for awhile. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The PAC jet is active thanks to more Nina phases of the MJO. It's possible this becomes more favorable, but it will take 2+ weeks I think, and that may only be temporary. My personal opinion is that we need the Atlantic to really help. I think the Pacific overall will not be favorable for awhile. 

Temporary one eyed pig setting up over AK early month too. We need the NAO to set up then or we’re gonna have a useless first week of January. It does look like the pig retrogrades west so it’s not locking in. 

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1 hour ago, REH said:

image.png.4ae77a408197674c9393f9b43a3525here you go.  Hope this cheers you up a bit 

There are plenty of people who are optimistic about a better pattern in mid January. If we get the PNA to cooperate then we will be in business.

Banking on a SSW like people are will get you burned.

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Shut the shades 

43A097B5-4866-4318-87BF-B398D23083E7.png

B633A712-9925-4546-BA76-A2E04A920E73.png

If it's not gonna snow let's mild up!

I know it was an el nino, but I think 97 98 was a winter with great blocking but over ruled by a warm country wide air mass.

Honestly hoping against 3rd straight below average snowfall winter.

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3 minutes ago, REH said:

Two days ago you were praising the GEFS as they were sniffing out changes in the 11-15 day. Now you ride the eps?? Seems to me you like posting the warmest model. 

No matter what model

No one should say anything with 100 percent about the long range especially over 200 hours out. Grain of salt.

The epo is killing us

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1 minute ago, REH said:

Two days ago you were praising the GEFS as they were sniffing out changes in the 11-15 day. Now you ride the eps?? Seems to me you like posting the warmest model. 

GEFS just as ugly. They did a good job of sniffing out the pac Fire hose 

11ADBB2C-45AD-434B-B62D-AF1F6088084C.png

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3 minutes ago, REH said:

Talk about moving the goalposts. The GEFS are much better at day 15 than day 8 but you like posting anything that shows warmth so post away Allsnow 

Every model stinks in the long range

The point is that the pattern sucks despite a negative AO and NAO.

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Just now, REH said:

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.pngthis is the GEFS at hour 192 when allsnow starts his 8-15 temp anomaly. Yea not pretty gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.pngthis is at day 15. Anyone who thinks that isn’t an improvement is blind. My Point was it’s improving despite what temp maps allsnow wants to post 

Yep we snow....jan 2011 here we come lol

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2 hours ago, REH said:

You canceled December on December 5th. How did that work out? 

I dont think he did but there were many people out there who were all doom and gloom.

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GEFS d15 pattern is definitely very good. But obviously not agreeing with EPS. 

For the first week of January, we will definitely have to hope for good NAO blocking to set up or we’re probably going to struggle with an AK vortex out on the PAC side. 

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it is so awesome when the NY/Philly/mid Atlantic crew comes in to the New England forum and start arguing with each other.

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12 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

it is so awesome when the NY/Philly/mid Atlantic crew comes in to the New England forum and start arguing with each other.

Ha! I feel the same way when posters from other subs come to the Upstate NY Coronavirus/banter thread and spew their anger and toxicity all over the place. There is a difference between banter and ruining a topic discussion with your own drivel that none of your in-person friends want to hear.

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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS continues looking crappy.

0Z looking worse and worse day by day in the long range.   Hopefully eps is wrong and maybe we can take a compromise...

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

0Z looking worse and worse day by day in the long range.   Hopefully eps is wrong and maybe we can take a compromise...

It's amazing third winter in a row that we had good early season snowfall that rolled into a crappy pattern. All different reasons.

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

5fe8c046ebd7f.png

5fe8c04fb119d.png

Problem is that no other model shows this.  But Para has been steadfast for a few days now.  If it scores a coup, maybe they can replace the GFS now.

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