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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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On 1/3/2020 at 12:57 PM, RT1980 said:

It’s been a while if ever with no measurable snow.  We always seem to get at least a trace. I understand that the atmosphere is changing but going off of history we will see something!  If one expects feet then they should move North and a little West !

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/NC/Raleigh/extreme-annual-raleigh-snowfall.php

 

A trace doesn't count as measurable. Either way this will be a snowless year in terms of anything more than a trace.

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5 hours ago, eyewall said:

A trace doesn't count as measurable. Either way this will be a snowless year in terms of anything more than a trace.

Understood!  So your saying on January 4th that there will be nothing more than a trace for NC outside of the mountains?  

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6 hours ago, eyewall said:

A trace doesn't count as measurable. Either way this will be a snowless year in terms of anything more than a trace.

So you're throwing in the towel for February already?  Kinda disappointed in any met saying that at this point.  That's one magic ball

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6 hours ago, eyewall said:

A trace doesn't count as measurable. Either way this will be a snowless year in terms of anything more than a trace.

I am surprised, that you, a meteorologist can call winter over on the 3rd of Janurary. I have a lot of respect for your opinion on this board. But saying we will get nothing is just irresponsible, almost like Glenn Burns calling a destructive ice storm 1.5 weeks out. 

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21 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Guys the odds are going down. January gone . Got late Jan and feb to get it done 

It never snows past Feb?  This board is ridiculous really!  I understand that the pattern sucks atm and doesn’t look to improve in the next 20 days.  We may not get snow or we may!  Anyone who is concrete in their feeling either way should submit a resume to accuweather!  

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If the MJO drags its feet in ph 5&6 for the next month then the fat lady has sung. It’s more than worrisome when we burn half of Met winter just looking for a pattern that could even produce a snowflake east of the mountains..but regardless of what happens, I’ll still be here 

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8 hours ago, RT1980 said:

It never snows past Feb?  This board is ridiculous really!  I understand that the pattern sucks atm and doesn’t look to improve in the next 20 days.  We may not get snow or we may!  Anyone who is concrete in their feeling either way should submit a resume to accuweather!  

The past 3 winters , it has not snowed past early December and after that we spent the rest of the winter chasing 15 day pattern changes. So minus the snow in December, this year is looking worse

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10 hours ago, RT1980 said:

Understood!  So your saying on January 4th that there will be nothing more than a trace for NC outside of the mountains?  

At least for RDU anyway.

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10 hours ago, Grayman said:

Guys the odds are going down. January gone . Got late Jan and feb to get it done 

January gone, already? That’s funny. My calendar says it’s January 5. Seriously folks, get off the ledge. Things can change overnight. You guys depend too much on worthless long term computer models. Rarely are the models right. 

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21 minutes ago, gman said:

January gone, already? That’s funny. My calendar says it’s January 5. Seriously folks, get off the ledge. Things can change overnight. You guys depend too much on worthless long term computer models. Rarely are the models right. 

They did pretty much nail the 10+ days of mid 60s highs That are coming at long range , they are only wrong at long range , when it’s 10+ days out cold or snow

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There's to much cold air up in Canada for me to throw in the towel just yet for anybody really. I do like to get a good snow before FEB bc it produces more of a mix (waa,more amped,ect) but it has produced for All of us too. I dont like analogs anymore there's to much change going on call it gw or whatever you like we're just in a whole other ballpark than even 10-15 years ago imho. So I'm generally a realist but to cliff dive for anyone at this point is funny yeah the decks stacked in your favor but if you enjoy that it's time for a new hobby or state. 

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From what all the mets have said and what the LR models show, it does look like most of January is toast. Of course we'll get a few cold fronts to come through and some locations in the mountains may see some light events (like yesterday); but it's going to be a warm pattern for at least a couple of weeks. 

Now a little positive attitude, I still think we have at least a 50/50 chance of getting into a better (if not great) pattern. Fab February could be coming. Couple of points: 1) All the indices are bad, but as said before what comes up must come down (question is when). 2) We've got locked into a stable pattern. Once we get into February/March (usually) the global stable winter patterns begin to fluctuate with  smaller troughs and ridges. No guarantees, but at least we can get (quick) eastern troughs again. 3) The northern hemisphere has had cold. It's been locked up in western Canada. If/when we get a flip, it should not take long (days) to get us very cold.  

So basically it could end up being the worse winter ever, Or it could end up being a great winter, or something in between.     

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8 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

From what all the mets have said and what the LR models show, it does look like most of January is toast. Of course we'll get a few cold fronts to come through and some locations in the mountains may see some light events (like yesterday); but it's going to be a warm pattern for at least a couple of weeks. 

Now a little positive attitude, I still think we have at least a 50/50 chance of getting into a better (if not great) pattern. Fab February could be coming. Couple of points: 1) All the indices are bad, but as said before what comes up must come down (question is when). 2) We've got locked into a stable pattern. Once we get into February/March (usually) the global stable winter patterns begin to fluctuate with  smaller troughs and ridges. No guarantees, but at least we can get (quick) eastern troughs again. 3) The northern hemisphere has had cold. It's been locked up in western Canada. If/when we get a flip, it should not take long (days) to get us very cold.  

So basically it could end up being the worse winter ever, Or it could end up being a great winter, or something in between.     

Couldn't have said it better my friend one thing's for sure too it's been wet with no end in sight all we need is to get that cold air and we could be in bussiness I know it's wishful but definitely in the realm of possibilities. There a lot of truth in the ole saying we need the cold first not enough to suppress but in our neck of the woods to be tapped anyway having cold air like we have on our side of the hemisphere is a plus in my book.

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Could be as little love for the NW foothills down to Triad on Tues......temps are warm enough it would be tough to get any real accumulations but maybe a quick slushy inch.....I am not to worried the models always suck at seeing major pattern changes so it wont surprise me at all if sometime in the next week the models suddenly shift to big cold in the east by the middle of the month....

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_55.thumb.png.e14c04c25a466c15d326a2044f13f91b.png

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There's a lot of punting going on in here  :lol:     Lighten up everyone. We live in the south, it's a pattern that hasn't budged and pacific flow dominates. It happens. At some point the pattern will flip again briefly, like it did in the late fall, but will it be too late? Stay tuned for the second half of our usual 6 week window of winter. We live in the south and take our chances every year, why should this year be any different. ;)   I'd much rather have 50-60 deg and thunderstorms than 33 and rain while I wait :P    

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6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, the rain is adding up! I’m only at stage one drought now, that system might make me drought free!

Shetley is that you?

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14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The last drought monitor update, most of the upstate was still “ abnormally dry” it was a brutal summer! Loving these 1-3” rain events every 3-5 days!

If only we had some cold air to help out it could  be snow every 3-5 days, hell at this point I would take a 5 inch snowfall and call it a winter. 

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43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The last drought monitor update, most of the upstate was still “ abnormally dry” it was a brutal summer! Loving these 1-3” rain events every 3-5 days!

Hasn’t been “abnormally dry” there since the Dec 10 update. From Dec 17 on only NE NC had been abnormally dry in the Carolinas and that finally went away with the last update.

6C5C6802-4A66-44F2-B893-0E572F67821E.png

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Keep an eye on Tuesday. If the shortwave nudges a little deeper/stronger keeping with previous trends, I-40 corridor could be in for a quick treat.

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1 hour ago, WxKnurd said:

Hasn’t been “abnormally dry” there since the Dec 10 update. From Dec 17 on only NE NC had been abnormally dry in the Carolinas and that finally went away with the last update.

6C5C6802-4A66-44F2-B893-0E572F67821E.png

That yellow in NE Ga, is touching my county!

Regardless, the frequent heavy rain events, have been great!

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44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That yellow in NE Ga, is touching my county!

Regardless, the frequent heavy rain events, have been great!

Lol... they have been going on for years!

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1 hour ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

GFS stays with the interesting pattern for sometime between the 16th and the 20th. Good to see that at least hanging on this run. 

That 17-20th timeframe on 18z GFS, is absolutely amazing!! That’s how I figured we could score a good event this winter! With frequent cold fronts and some redevelopment after it has passed, and we finally get a good shot of cold!

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Here are the January highs and lows for GSP from 2012 (you know, "the worst winter ever"). Some ups and downs but really not that bad. Had a couple of bona fide cold fronts. Actually felt like Jan for a good bit, just no snow. It'll be intersting to see how this Jan compares. 

 

an
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Max Avg Min
56 51.3 46
66 54.7 36
47 35.8 25
56 40.8 25
48 39.7 31
49 40.0 36
48 40.1 34
44 33.5 21
35 26.4 15
32 26.3 24
33 29.3 27
35 26.4 18
38 28.8 20
40 27.6 15
50 36.4 26
53 40.0 29
43 38.1 35
47 39.9 36
60 45.0 34
50 41.9 32
44 36.3 29
41 30.8 25
47 33.3 22
48 37.5 30
39 35.8 31
51 41.0 34
50 37.9 28
57 43.1 32
64 45.5 27
72 56.1 43
51 44.5 41

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Haha... the fantasy land GFS takes the 540 line all the way to the GOM with snow from Brownsville to New Orleans...  Sigh...

F0B4127B-89B0-4552-85D8-5DB4D2894422.png

2FECE52E-3D2F-4545-8113-DCCBC35E6CCF.png

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