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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One word for the upcoming/current pattern: Bleak

When storms are showing in the beginning of January and the rain/snow line is 200 miles into Canada, our chances don't look great...

Yep, my coldest low over the next 15 days is 29, according to GFS! In the climo coldest time of winter, it’s bad

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Of course I'm hoping for the 12z model runs to show an epic SE snowstorm. But, I'm actually thinking they'll show warmer solutions in the LR. Looking at the indices, it doesn't look good.

PNA looks to go strongly negative **I've always considered this the most crucial

EPO looks to get down to neutral **it was showing negative

NAO looks to be positive **as always.

 

jjjj.jpg

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Sorry, but I have a very difficult time buying any LR model, including indices, at this juncture. They were awful these last few years. Last winter we had all these in our favor and nothing worked out. (With the exception being the early Dec snow.) We still have a solid 8 weeks left. All it takes is one storm to put us above average. 

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11 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Sorry, but I have a very difficult time buying any LR model, including indices, at this juncture. They were awful these last few years. Last winter we had all these in our favor and nothing worked out. (With the exception being the early Dec snow.) We still have a solid 8 weeks left. All it takes is one storm to put us above average. 

The problem is, especially with the GFS is, it shows extremely cold air at long lead times (8-10) days, and actually only verifies at about normal. Normal temps aren’t going to get us snow, and when models show a torch at 8-10 days out, it almost always verifies correctly.The inicies are showing favorable positions for cold and snowy, like -NAO, only to correct to positive at verification time. It’s pretty sad look over all for winter weather lovers! The mountains and ski resorts can’t even make snow the last 3-4 days, it just sucks 

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The pattern is awful.  So rest assured at this point there wont be any significant cold "sneaking up on us".  We'll see it build over 10-14 days if and when trends turn in our favor.  Until then, enjoy the early spring, late fall, whatever!  If I had 4 months out of the year be exactly like today I would be quite the happy camper.

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2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

The pattern is awful.  So rest assured at this point there wont be any significant cold "sneaking up on us".  We'll see it build over 10-14 days if and when trends turn in our favor.  Until then, enjoy the early spring, late fall, whatever!  If I had 4 months out of the year be exactly like today I would be quite the happy camper.

When the cold air finally puts Canada in the freezer, when it decides to slide down into the US, it’ll most definitely dump into the West and leave us the the SE ridge and a few more weeks of torch! :(

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5 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Of course I'm hoping for the 12z model runs to show an epic SE snowstorm. But, I'm actually thinking they'll show warmer solutions in the LR. Looking at the indices, it doesn't look good.

PNA looks to go strongly negative **I've always considered this the most crucial

EPO looks to get down to neutral **it was showing negative

NAO looks to be positive **as always.

 

jjjj.jpg

Yep. That PNA is a dagger for our part of the country.  Like last Saturday night when the Tigers were down 16 to nothing, I am not quite ready to throw in the towel but we need a momentum changer before halftime.  Maybe the winter referee is getting ready to call a targeting penalty or an overturned call from the booth would help too!

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Ummm nobody’s talking about the 18z!??? NC gets plastered with snow next Tuesday the 7th! It’s a clipper, but with the worst winter without a winter upcoming, you better take all you can get! It actually blows up just off the N.C. coast! DeeeeTeeeeee is licking his chops!

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35 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Ummm nobody’s talking about the 18z!??? NC gets plastered with snow next Tuesday the 7th! It’s a clipper, but with the worst winter without a winter upcoming, you better take all you can get! It actually blows up just off the N.C. coast! DeeeeTeeeeee is licking his chops!

90% of the board canceled winter or "punted" January.  They would look silly talking up a snow event.

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43 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Ummm nobody’s talking about the 18z!??? NC gets plastered with snow next Tuesday the 7th! It’s a clipper, but with the worst winter without a winter upcoming, you better take all you can get! It actually blows up just off the N.C. coast! DeeeeTeeeeee is licking his chops!

It's the 18z.  Next!

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

The real question is: How many pallets of pre emergent do we need for January?

I would buy stock in Scott’s if I were you.  And in Toro lawn mowers.  The bees have returned, the bears are awake and the snakes are doing snake things. 

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Now that I am home with the data in front of me...I will answer this...but its gonna hurt.

First let me start with some hope...there were some similar patterns early in winter that flipped.  The best 3 examples of that are 1965/66, 1999/2000 and 2004/5.  This is the 1966 example.

It went from this

1966p1.gif.44627654ee1b10a9ef2752fd1827d93b.gif

to this

1966p2.gif.3662e7558a98bf758b8cf2ddb0e7b1d0.gif

and a pretty epic period in late January and then another big storm in February.  

However...all 3 of those examples the pacific ridge pattern set in early in December and was already breaking down in the first half of January.  This time the pattern is really just locking in during the first part of January.  Big difference.  In those 3 examples the pattern lasted a good month and then flipped.  But a pattern setting in December with the jet still going through seasonal fluctuation is much different than one setting in January when the wavelengths are broad and the jet takes on its dominant winter phase.  But I don't have all the answers...maybe those 3 should be used as hope that things could flip quick...although even in those examples quick wouldn't happen until February given the length of those patterns and that the same pattern is setting in a month later this year.  

If you want to sleep tonight I suggest you stop reading right now and disregard everything else I have to say because the rest of this is going to give you nightmares.  

 

 

 

Still reading.... you must really want punishment

Wow you really hate yourself....

ok I warned you...you asked for it, don't blame me I am NOT paying for the therapy.

Ok the reality those are NOT the real comps to this current situation.  There are 15 similar January months to what the guidance is projecting for the first half of January.  Assuming we do not get some kind of crazy fast shift...and nothing is hinting at that...it is highly likely January will feature a strong central PAC ridge and a +NAM state.  15 previous Januarys fit that.

This is the composite of those years

JanuaryCOmp.png.95afe2a88c76371a9c05b78a24fd7210.png

I think we can all agree that looks familiar...and is a good match to the current projections.

Here are the facts you asked for...and I warned you, you are not going to like it.

These are the Februarys that followed 

FebComp.png.64b02b8a6d6c4bbebd13f0102a0cfb2f.png

EVERY single one of those years was below average snowfall at BWI.  Only one wasnt below avg at DCA.

In all 15 of those years we only had one warning level snowfall in February and that was 2006.  This was the patern that February.

2006.png.591ad928a9ad9246f12d8fcfb2e9c3b3.png

It took a complete reversal of the NAM state and great blocking to get the only good February we had following similar Januarys.  I know some don't consider that month good because it was one "fluke" storm and then warmed up...but IMO we were unlucky not to get more storms that month.  I don't see that storm as a fluke, I see it as a fluke that we only got that storm honestly.  But whatever...

IF you subtract that one year from the 15 February looks like this...

Febwithoutblocking.png.416449f3311f892ccc9222bfa2d82462.png

And there were no warning level snowfalls and the avg february snowfall in DC those 14 years was 1.4".  

And this is the February temps for those months

febtemps.png.c953d12a1ef68127d0849354198ae1ac.png

Bottom line... if the long range guidance is correct and what they are advertising day 10+ actually is reality... pray to god we get the 1 in 15 year miracle flip to a raging -NAO because otherwise we are toast and we are looking at a year like 1950, 1989, 2002, 2008, 2012... 

Maybe the CFS is right and the pac ridge ends up much further east than all other guidance and the MJO would indicate it will.  Hug that and pray.... and don't blame me, I just put together the data...I am not happy about it and I didn't make it be and I am praying the guidance is wrong.  

 

 

I'll just leave this here.  Sleep tight.

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55 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I'll just leave this here.  Sleep tight.

I hate analogs, but I would generally agree with the sentiment. -PNA is hard to shake during the heart of winter. I think the final hope is that our 500mb pattern looks nothing like these composites starting the last week in January. It gives me reason to hold on just a little while longer

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But, but, but.....it just takes one storm!  Miracle March will save us!  

I'm gonna spend my day off trolling Weather UToobers and their clickbaiting ways to keep me out of the sanitarium.

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