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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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It's way early, but I've got a bit of an eye on the big low expected to slam California around New Years.  Models all over the place with it but possible it digs so far south it leaves a piece behind.  Fingers crossed that we draw in some cold air ahead of it.  Ensembles are showing lower heights over SE Canada/Northeast which would point us in the right direction for cold HP to build in the following week after New Years.  18z GFS pretty close to that, though suppresses it.  

That's all there is to talk about as far as snow chances go in the long range for our area.

GFS @144

Xnyjl2T.png

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19 minutes ago, Wow said:

It's way early, but I've got a bit of an eye on the big low expected to slam California around New Years.  Models all over the place with it but possible it digs so far south it leaves a piece behind.  Fingers crossed that we draw in some cold air ahead of it.  Ensembles are showing lower heights over SE Canada/Northeast which would point us in the right direction for cold HP to build in the following week after New Years.  18z GFS pretty close to that, though suppresses it.  

That's all there is to talk about as far as snow chances go in the long range for our area.

GFS @144

Xnyjl2T.png

You have the right eye open.

But agree.  Pattern ahead looks rather stormy. Interesting to say the least. 

Timeframe looks similar to the 12z Canadian. 

If we get a couple more of those upper lows in the south.  That may cause a pattern change. 

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Very quick summary of MA forum discussion today: For the foreseeable future pretty much zero chance of SE snow (outside of high terrain).  Fairly decent shot of a cool/dry shot or two.  In the very long range, models currently advertising a George Costanza pattern (ie the exact opposite of everything that is desirable).

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Very quick summary of MA forum discussion today: For the foreseeable future pretty much zero chance of SE snow (outside of high terrain).  Fairly decent shot of a cool/dry shot or two.  In the very long range, models currently advertising a George Costanza pattern (ie the exact opposite of everything that is desirable).
On to Dec. 2020...

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3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

On to Dec. 2020...

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Actually I am looking forward to our annual March -NAO outbreak which gets us flurries.

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Actually I am looking forward to our annual March -NAO outbreak which gets us flurries.
Like clockwork, I remember a few years ago being in Savannah for the Low Country Powwow on St. Patrick's Day and is flizzarded all morning

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Love me some, Herp Albert..

The "Torch" shall continue...

The 18Z GFS throws a bone for a great cold shot in the 252 hour range, If that comes to pass & We can get a Coastal Low, We might be in business.. 

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Love me some, Herp Albert..
The "Torch" shall continue...
The 18Z GFS throws a bone for a great cold shot in the 252 hour range, If that comes to pass & We can get a Coastal Low, We might be in business.. 

Positive thoughts...


.
0z says no bueno at 246... Southern Jet is all the way down in the Keys

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Positive Thoughts

 

Let's try a Off-Sides Kick

00ZGFS & the 12Z (well somewhat), continues to show some "impressive"? Cold air in the 240hr range (Jan 6th-7th timeframe..).. 

A Couple ensembles show a Possible "Big Dog" for ya'll Mid-State, Most nothing at all, and a couple panels showing a "paste Bomb" for the Immediate Coast..

 

So Let's try a Off-Sides Kick..  :arrowhead:

Have the "Cold Air" in place, Develop a "LP" in the Southern Jet, The piece that WOW say gets left behind, (Yes the Models are "hinting" on that..) the same southerly Jet, Orangeburg says it's "In Da Keys".. 

Wish for a slight NE trend.. Alil "Suppression"  and *Not a lot*..

At least We'll have "something" to work with..

We just might Be in Bidness.. Either Warm-nosed out here on the Coast, or a paste Bomb, or a REAL Cold rain..

(I don't care on the outcome),,

Maybe ya'll will get something outta that, It's about the ONLY chance seen the past few weeks..

Something too watch for & keep a Eye on..

 

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15 minutes ago, Solak said:

Storm on 1/3-4, Storm on 1/11-12. Cold sandwiched in between them.

If the piece of energy that gets left behind from the 1/3-4 system hooks up with any northern stream energy, the  on 1/5 system may have a chance at 1) heading further north than shown 2) pulling down the limited cold air more efficiently 3) spread some precip inland. However, with no blocking HP it would be a coastal cutter at best and a very transient system. We know we don't do well with transient systems without cold air already entrenched. At best this would be a rain system but for now, just another dry, average day...

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If the piece of energy that gets left behind from the 1/3-4 system hooks up with any northern stream energy, the  on 1/5 system may have a chance at 1) heading further north than shown 2) pulling down the limited cold air more efficiently 3) spread some precip inland. However, with no blocking HP it would be a coastal cutter at best and a very transient system. We know we don't do well with transient systems without cold air already entrenched. At best this would be a rain system but for now, just another dry, average day...

What is a coastal cutter?

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Summary of MA thread feeling for today:

Apocalyptically bad pattern incoming.  Not only is it horrible, it is the kind of pattern which tends to get dug in for months at a time.  Strong Objective-based evidence for fearing for all of January.

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5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Summary of MA thread feeling for today:

Apocalyptically bad pattern incoming.  Not only is it horrible, it is the kind of pattern which tends to get dug in for months at a time.  Strong Objective-based evidence for fearing for all of January.

See sanitarium post. I'm done. It's over.

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