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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I would think the way this is going now would be hope that low gets as far east as we can get it and as strong as can be and hope it can drag in some cold on the back.

Stupid GL low and no blocking high..Let's see if it gets up to the 50/50 and sets us up for the next week

 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I would think the way this is going now would be hope that low gets as far east as we can get it and as strong as can be and hope it can drag in some cold on the back.

I just hope we can all score a few inches and then watch it violently wash away with a mild super soaker a couple days later.

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6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Stupid GL low and no blocking high..Let's see if it gets up to the 50/50 and sets us up for the next week

 

In a fast flow without a block, we will continuously run the risk of a low appearing over the GLs, and Higher pressure off the maritimes. The exact inversion of what is ideal. Timing will need to be damn near perfect.

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31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was more trying to ask is this the most typical progression for a -NAO development. This fall it seemed we were getting either the WAR feeding it at times when the --NAO did develop or more recently the EPO ridge spread East and fed the Western NAO region. Haven't seen the Scandinavian evolution. Is this more of a deep winter thing?

It’s common enough. Is it a guarantee to evolve from there to a -NAO no. But it’s been how we’ve had some of our best blocking recently. Imo when we get ridging to come over the pole and displace the PV it’s much more effective as setting up a long lasting stable blocking pattern. 

Ridging over the top of the pole had a hand in both severe blocks in 2009/10, and in what was our most recent sustained cold season blocking in March 2018. 

Early stages of the Dec 2009 block

DA63CAE0-35C7-4DB6-B134-47CA3C25F39D.gif.17955da8fb8547e642ebe95699eeed99.gif

Jan 2010 block developing 

8A5AA133-5CCE-4950-9C8B-6CCA47ED70D4.gif.f7f0501c628f0712b4730a86dcd1d124.gif

Feb 2008 before the March blocking. 

CB1E35DD-9F35-4E0C-A43B-561226F256C1.gif.ca5aaebe4738738f43f22b14da5e2166.gif

It’s  not the only way. 2011 the block progressed out of wave breaking from the mid latitudes on our side.  But it’s been a common way we get good lasting blocking. 

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38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was more trying to ask is this the most typical progression for a -NAO development. This fall it seemed we were getting either the WAR feeding it at times when the --NAO did develop or more recently the EPO ridge spread East and fed the Western NAO region. Haven't seen the Scandinavian evolution. Is this more of a deep winter thing?

The -NAO in late Nov was from a retrograding scand ridge.  I dont know how frequent that particular evolution occurs compared to other ways. If I'm no mistaken it tends to be more durable....not all the time but typically, imo.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

In a fast flow without a block, we will continuously run the risk of a low appearing over the GLs, and Higher pressure off the maritimes. The exact inversion of what is ideal. Timing will need to be damn near perfect.

I like the look of the following week.. not sure how this is gonna turn out so far out there. Seems good and maybe prolonged... like seeing all the isobars to the Northeast and a high to the north.. will it work??

 

 

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

The -NAO in late Nov was from a retrograding scand ridge.  I dont know how frequent that particular evolution occurs compared to other ways. If I'm no mistaken it tends to be more durable....not all the time but typically, imo.

That’s my take also. If we can start the whole pattern cycle of the last 30 days again but going into mid winter next time I think we will like the results. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s my take also. If we can start the whole pattern cycle of the last 30 days again but going into mid winter next time I think we will like the results. 

I thought the exact same thing when we were seeing those nice ATL blocking looks in Nov.  If it's a recurring theme, late Dec--->Jan would be the timeframe for it's return.  

 

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Does anyone think that the GFS depiction for next weekend will actually take the track it shows at 18z. Actually I guess I'm asking how common is a track like that. I always thought it was either the typical ride up the Appalachians or a coastal.

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47 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Does anyone think that the GFS depiction for next weekend will actually take the track it shows at 18z. Actually I guess I'm asking how common is a track like that. I always thought it was either the typical ride up the Appalachians or a coastal.

Gefs has a coastal 

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HH Eps continues to look snowier for the anafrontal wave. 

Decent uptick in mean snowfall DCA north

OP Euro only goes to 90 but its clearly less progressive and not near as strung out with energy as past runs . There is always the danger of too strong a follow up wave :yikes: and 81 west gets mauled 

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HH Eps continues to look snowier for the anafrontal wave. 
Decent uptick in mean snowfall DCA north


Yeah man...I’d say it was a very nice uptick in legit hits.
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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Much more so for your region than the DC area.

I've noticed the many members have slowed the overall timing ..so instead of Tuesday late into Wed am ...most are Wed afternoon...also many are juicier 

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13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Much more so for your region than the DC area.

Don't care... give me a 1-3/2-4 and I'm good even if he gets like 5 inches

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Don't care... give me a 1-3/2-4 and I'm good even if he gets like 5 inches

Context Yoda.

We were discussing the 18z EPS mean snowfall, verbatim. You are having some issues parsing lately.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Context Yoda.

We were discussing the 18z EPS mean snowfall, verbatim. You are having some issues parsing lately.

Yes, I know that.  My point is so what if the mean snowfall shows him getting 5 inches?  Give me 2 and I am happy

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7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yes, I know that.  My point is so what if the mean snowfall shows him getting 5 inches?  Give me 2 and I am happy

I think the confusion arose from the fact that the mean 18z eps snowfall doesn’t show anyone getting 5”.  But I agree with your point.  

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45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

HH Eps continues to look snowier for the anafrontal wave. 

Decent uptick in mean snowfall DCA north

OP Euro only goes to 90 but its clearly less progressive and not near as strung out with energy as past runs . There is always the danger of too strong a follow up wave :yikes: and 81 west gets mauled 

I thought about that.  Its a fine line. If the wave gets too amped it congrats Pittsburgh. Hoping for a west trend turns into hoping for a East trend real quick. Lol.

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

HH Eps continues to look snowier for the anafrontal wave. 

Decent uptick in mean snowfall DCA north

OP Euro only goes to 90 but its clearly less progressive and not near as strung out with energy as past runs . There is always the danger of too strong a follow up wave :yikes: and 81 west gets mauled 

That would be an acceptable outcome :D

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, when I opened it it said must be 18 to open :lol:

Lol. Yea I made sure my kids werent around before  I opened it. Haha

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This is trending toward an actual “event”. Notice how the front is becoming more e-w aligned as [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] was discussing earlier.



How do people feel about temps? I’m obviously not picky and just happy to see snow, but this seems rate dependent with temps at present.

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