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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I can extrapolate a good hit from this.  Snow in Alabama and Mississippi can’t be a bad thing. 

AB9FB4B8-21A0-473E-B11B-9174A22FD177.png

That's 18z... 00z is just finished and looks decent at 84

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks somewhat similar to the 18z Euro 

The thing is many ensembles are real juiced . It wouldn't surprise me if a thin swath of moderate totals like 3-6" 4"-8" comes out of this in the end but a long way to go and tight margins most likely for the winners vs losers.  I'm leaning i81 corridor. 

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37 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The thing is many ensembles are real juiced . It wouldn't surprise me if a thin swath of moderate totals like 3-6" 4"-8" comes out of this in the end but a long way to go and tight margins most likely for the winners vs losers.  I'm leaning i81 corridor. 

People question these frontal wave setups all the time but they can work. Problem is because they are discreet waves in a progressive pattern they are incredibly finicky and hard for guidance to pin down with any accuracy at range. So when they are on guidance at day 7 or 10 there is very little chance they will be right. Either there is no wave or the boundary isn’t located exactly right at that lead so it’s somewhere else.  We’re getting close enough to start taking it seriously but there will be adjustments and shifts even within 48 hours with these. Anyone who says they know what is going to happen is full of it.  Slight adjustments in the timing, press of cold, and amplification are the difference between rain, snow, and a squashed wave.  I feel like we’re in the game but I won’t feel confident about a setup like this until very short range. That’s why people “think” they never work. When they do we usually didn’t see them coming. When we see them from range they often don’t. 

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Interesting developments wrt the high latitudes on tonight’s ops and not forever out in time either.  Definitely need to watch this for a possible phase change in the AO NAO which would seriously change the calculation for snow in the current pattern in our favor. 

8FDDD0C1-3E91-4829-B74E-D3B0204567E1.thumb.png.66fa3488aaf72c6653a204acb269369d.pngC0FDFAF7-185F-465C-BDD4-CCCE23289105.thumb.png.7705f86824ad87aab6ba14f6ef8da306.png

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06Z has the same general distribution with snowfall (Kuchera) as we saw on the overnight run though totals are slightly less. Generally a 2-6" event through the DC/Balt corridor with the higher amounts N/W of the cities.

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6z GFS. Kuchera WB.  My take as of now is that since day before will be in the 60s and sUrface temps Wed morning just around freezing NW of DC,  BA, this will be white rain inside the Beltways, and a grass coverer if we are lucky NW.

7553BE43-1A20-47D7-913A-D5418631B972.png

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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

6z GFS. Kuchera WB.

7553BE43-1A20-47D7-913A-D5418631B972.png

Snow depth maps are usually a more accurate depiction and I say this seriously. Not always, but usually. Many would take this and enjoy the Hallmark scene and cardinals flying around look.

gfs_asnowd_neus_15.png

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

06Z has the same general distribution with snowfall (Kuchera) as we saw on the overnight run though totals are slightly less. Generally a 2-6" event through the DC/Balt corridor with the higher amounts N/W of the cities.

Looking at all the latest runs, in general the best forcing for a longer duration looks to occur NW parts of the region, so even with marginal surface temps a few inches may accumulate. The fall line and points SE have some work to do, with temps mostly mid 30s and maybe not getting the best rates either. That's not a good combo, but it could change(might get worse lol).

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Snow depth maps are usually a more accurate depiction and I say this seriously. Not always, but usually. Many would take this and enjoy the Hallmark scene and cardinals flying around look.

gfs_asnowd_neus_15.png

That looks about right.. I would just make the white spot about 10 miles larger in diameter and put one of Baltimore too

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20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Snow depth maps are usually a more accurate depiction and I say this seriously. Not always, but usually. Many would take this and enjoy the Hallmark scene and cardinals flying around look.

gfs_asnowd_neus_15.png

I would take it in a minute!

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It seems that models are waffling on how much energy is pulled out of the southern piece.  Slight changes are the dif between snow tv, coating-2" or a nice 2-4/3-6...

To add to PSU's post above....

ofSaQ2E.png

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9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Interesting developments wrt the high latitudes on tonight’s ops and not forever out in time either.  Definitely need to watch this for a possible phase change in the AO NAO which would seriously change the calculation for snow in the current pattern in our favor. 

I see a noticeable AO ensemble change with today's forecast, a decent majority of the members take the AO to neutral to even negative by mid-month. This is a rather big change in the last 24 hours.  

gefs_ao_bias_2019120806.thumb.png.ebac50d10720797ecac30455e6da2ff1.png

 

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CFS has a much improved look for the rest of the month compared to what it had been advertising previously. Supposedly it is pretty accurate in this range, and it aligns with what we are seeing on the global ensembles. Pretty cold look here for week 3 of December.

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_3.png

Potentially active too with a split flow and hints of lower pressure in the SW.

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