I wonder if the Nino 1+2 stuff is just reflecting of the current warm pattern... and if ENSO will make a reemergence. It looked like we were going El Nino, may still go weak El Nino.
Super warm March.. can already feel it in late February, one of the warmest I remember. There's no "space" for variation. (No room for error down, can't really get to warm too cause then Summer would be a dud (for me))
Remember last Summer-October it looked like it was going to keep pouring snow/cold chances through the Winter.. It moderated in October-November to 60s/cloudy. You have to wonder..
The +PNA without +ENSO subsurface is suspect (days 4-8)
Major +NAO in December could be ramping up for major -NAO January, and Stratosphere warming in the wave
The Pacific pattern is moving.. MJO.. surprising from what I have seen. Switch to heavy +NAO in the medium dampens cold/-NAO chances as a sustainable Winter pattern (N Atlantic SST index). Pacific looks terrible.. Pac jet flowing up through Alaska.