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UniversesBelowNormal

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Everything posted by UniversesBelowNormal

  1. UniversesBelowNormal
    I'm concerned about this.. the -PNA flexes just as the -NAO peaks, could be a repeat of 2017, 2018
  2. UniversesBelowNormal
    Not a bad roll into Winter for the NAO, I don't like the AO though (+AO wave)
  3. UniversesBelowNormal
    No established ENSO pattern.. in non-El Nino it's been a bad run for the last 5 years. I also see that the jet stream is generally lifting north.
  4. UniversesBelowNormal
    -NAO ~-0.75, normal snow ~25-30"= generally bad Pacific no low pressure getting too far south ((arctic ice melt new 10 yr pattern))
  5. UniversesBelowNormal
    Pacific pattern is correlating with ENSO subsurface cold wave moving across -200m Nino 3 nicely. Nice correlation from 2017.
  6. UniversesBelowNormal
    It will be hard with the -PNA pattern
  7. UniversesBelowNormal
    If that Stratosphere warming happens.. it will confirm my thoughts about -NAO Winter, but they aren't very correlated, the Atlantic SST index and that.. meaning it could be a boost.
  8. UniversesBelowNormal
    Not a big fan of the Pacific this Winter.
  9. UniversesBelowNormal
    ^especially when Nov is like this mid-month. It's based on 2005-2020 or so.. unless there is a major climate change.
  10. UniversesBelowNormal
    ENSO subsurface configuration points to a warmer Dec 12-30.
  11. UniversesBelowNormal
    Subsurface is pretty classic El Nino configuration. the pattern doesn't feel like a Winter- El Nino above +0.5 though. Also colder wave around 160W, -200m may bias short term conditions to more -PNA (vs models)
  12. UniversesBelowNormal
    ^The Stratosphere at 10mb was record cold in Nov-Dec 2017 and 2018. (since 1948)
  13. UniversesBelowNormal
    The -NAO progged days 5-15 ups the chances, I think. I'm surprised no one bought up on it.
  14. UniversesBelowNormal
    I'm surprised you all see the same thing..
  15. UniversesBelowNormal
    I was surprised to see the El Nino's resurgence. +PNA from 2013-2017 did not hold in non-El Nino conditions. These are on models for the next 15 days.
  16. UniversesBelowNormal
    Upon further review, box A comes in at -0.30, box B -0.80 so it's about -0.55-0.60 for the Winter. I bet this will happen.
  17. UniversesBelowNormal
    It's something like 9-3-2 since conception, meaning I constructed the index then it hit like 11/14 times or something some neutral's.
  18. UniversesBelowNormal
    It was positive last year
  19. UniversesBelowNormal
    See Easternuswx ~2008-2009 for further elaboration.
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