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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

 


How do people feel about temps? I’m obviously not picky and just happy to see snow, but this seems rate dependent with temps at present.

 

 

I would think it’s a pretty big concern. We just don’t seem to be quite cold enough yet. That won’t be a problem in a couple of weeks IMO.

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13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

 


How do people feel about temps? I’m obviously not picky and just happy to see snow, but this seems rate dependent with temps at present.

 

 

Rates and low sun angle will save us.  :weenie:

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25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is trending toward an actual “event”. Notice how the front is becoming more e-w aligned as @psuhoffman was discussing earlier.

And it's only 4 days out too which still is an eternity but its close

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Nothing is settled when it comes to possible post frontal precip and/or type. The arctic push southward continues to ease run over run and we see the short wave responding. Seeing a much stronger shortwave pulling out of the SW then just a few runs ago as to where we are seeing the GFS closing it off for a time in the deep south. Getting close as to where that feature may come more into play other then just throwing some extra moisture northward post frontal. The 06Z GFS actually has a low come up the coast to OBX as to where it suggests the possibility of an ice storm as CAD would more then likely be stronger then currently depicted on the run. Euro has also been easing the NS flow and so we are seeing some gymnastics with the shortwave as well though not to the degree as the GFS. With the fact that we are seeing this shortwave continual to strengthen and is now achieving a neg tilt in the deep south before being washed out, the GFS is pretty much telling us that this possibly could become a player (not so much as of yet with the Euro). Especially if there is any potential PAC/NS energy that can dig behind it that the models aren't currently picking up on. 

As far as anything beyond the above period? I have no clue. The above shortwave could possibly play a part in scrambling things up for starters and beyond that it is a very active pattern with many moving parts. NS will play a big part as far as timing and dig depth/location of energy we see flowing through it. One thing I will say, if we continue to see improvements with the height builds in the Eastern and/or Central NOA domain through the extended, as WxUSAF has alluded to the possibility of, then it could get very interesting, very quickly.

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I know most are looking at the next week's storms but I’m curious about the end of the month around Christmas and after. Can you guys see a favorable pattern setting up / hanging on through the Holidays? 

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14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Nothing is settled when it comes to possible post frontal precip and/or type. The arctic push southward continues to ease run over run and we see the short wave responding. Seeing a much stronger shortwave pulling out of the SW then just a few runs ago as to where we are seeing the GFS closing it off for a time in the deep south. Getting close as to where that feature may come more into play other then just throwing some extra moisture northward post frontal. The 06Z GFS actually has a low come up the coast to OBX as to where it suggests the possibility of an ice storm as CAD would more then likely be stronger then currently depicted on the run. Euro has also been easing the NS flow and so we are seeing some gymnastics with the shortwave as well though not to the degree as the GFS. With the fact that we are seeing this shortwave continual to strengthen and is now achieving a neg tilt in the deep south before being washed out, the GFS is pretty much telling us that this possibly could become a player (not so much as of yet with the Euro). Especially if there is any potential PAC/NS energy that can dig behind it that the models aren't currently picking up on. 

As far as anything beyond the above period? I have no clue. The above shortwave could possibly play a part in scrambling things up for starters and beyond that it is a very active pattern with many moving parts. NS will play a big part as far as timing and dig depth/location of energy we see flowing through it. One thing I will say, if we continue to see improvements with the height builds in the Eastern and/or Central NOA domain through the extended, as WxUSAF has alluded to the possibility of, then it could get very interesting, very quickly.

The ns has been backing off since yesterday evening. Would that have a big effect on the cold front making it to the east coast? 

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24 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Nothing is settled when it comes to possible post frontal precip and/or type. The arctic push southward continues to ease run over run and we see the short wave responding. Seeing a much stronger shortwave pulling out of the SW then just a few runs ago as to where we are seeing the GFS closing it off for a time in the deep south. Getting close as to where that feature may come more into play other then just throwing some extra moisture northward post frontal. The 06Z GFS actually has a low come up the coast to OBX as to where it suggests the possibility of an ice storm as CAD would more then likely be stronger then currently depicted on the run. Euro has also been easing the NS flow and so we are seeing some gymnastics with the shortwave as well though not to the degree as the GFS. With the fact that we are seeing this shortwave continual to strengthen and is now achieving a neg tilt in the deep south before being washed out, the GFS is pretty much telling us that this possibly could become a player (not so much as of yet with the Euro). Especially if there is any potential PAC/NS energy that can dig behind it that the models aren't currently picking up on. 

As far as anything beyond the above period? I have no clue. The above shortwave could possibly play a part in scrambling things up for starters and beyond that it is a very active pattern with many moving parts. NS will play a big part as far as timing and dig depth/location of energy we see flowing through it. One thing I will say, if we continue to see improvements with the height builds in the Eastern and/or Central NOA domain through the extended, as WxUSAF has alluded to the possibility of, then it could get very interesting, very quickly.

This has been a trend in recent runs overall. 6z GFS took a step in that direction. The 0z GFS, as well as the CMC, had nice upper jet positioning for our area and impressive 700 mb FGEN. Need to get the boundary far enough S/E though as the impulses ride along it otherwise its 38 degree rain, a few splatty flakes, then clearing.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

This has been a trend in recent runs overall. 6z GFS took a step in that direction. The 0z GFS, as well as the CMC, had nice upper jet positioning for our area and impressive 700 mb FGEN. Need to get the boundary far enough S/E though as the impulses ride along it otherwise its 38 degree rain, a few splatty flakes, then clearing.

There’s a tricky balancing act with getting the front far enough south of us to bring in cold air, but not too far south to leave us dry. 

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13 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

The ns has been backing off since yesterday evening. Would that have a big effect on the cold front making it to the east coast? 

It has been backing off for quite awhile now on its eastward progression. This is the last 10 runs of the GFS. Notice we also aren't seeing as much dig from the cold as the coldest anomalies have been moving northward. One thing to note is that we are seeing a more west to east alignment to the cold vs. north/south as mentioned by PSU. This is more conducive for post frontal precip. The one thing we should probably expect is that any possible snow will move northward with the boundary as well but of course timing of energy running along the front will play into that as well. . GEFS has actually sped up the eastward progression of the cold from just a few runs ago but the dig is far less. So more of a west/East vs. North/south alignment as well.

gfs_T850a_eus_fh96_trend.thumb.gif.c02676c25f43a513bee1a24db34d0783.gif

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50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There’s a tricky balancing act with getting the front far enough south of us to bring in cold air, but not too far south to leave us dry. 

Balancing acts and needle threading generally dont work out for us. Holding expectations low with this....very low.

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The high latitude look has been trending quickly toward a clear -AO late next week on the ensembles. Look at D10 Eps and GEFS 500mb anomalies and MSLP anomalies. Compared to a few days ago, much more ridging and high pressure over the pole. No signs of a shutout pattern to me anytime soon.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The high latitude look has been trending quickly toward a clear -AO late next week on the ensembles. Look at D10 Eps and GEFS 500mb anomalies and MSLP anomalies. Compared to a few days ago, much more ridging and high pressure over the pole. No signs of a shutout pattern to me anytime soon.

Agree. Looks good to me too. The trough along the west coast showing up d12+ doesn't concern me at all either. Roll that forward and we're right back to a +pna and trough in the east. Looks like once the front clears next week we're in the game for a week+. Holiday will be in ens range soon.... do we ridge out on Xmas or track threats? Beats me...

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I’m not sold that the EPO ridge goes away anytime soon. That keeps getting can kicked. The pacific might not be ideal at times, but I don’t see anything overtly hostile. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m not sold that the EPO ridge goes away anytime soon. That keeps getting can kicked. The pacific might not be ideal at times, but I don’t see anything overtly hostile. 

Agree again. We need a lot to go right to snow so even a half decent general pattern is still quite far from an actual event. The issue that I see prob wearing the board down over the next couple weeks is inherent chaos/madness in active flow. Absolutely nothing can be trusted beyond 5 days and even if we do pull something off it will unlikely be a long track or even medium track. Lol. OTOH- active/progressive flow loves to "surprise" us when we aren't even looking. 

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Yup, this is not a pattern for long track snow threats, but is one that could produce. Active pattern with cold air around. That said...if the ao does flip next week and the NAO starts moving as well...

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Both the GEFS and GEPS have the Aleutian low in a nice position to push that western trough east.  Looks similar to the progression we have seen several times this season.

I do like that we are seeing these looks with the MJO fading into the COD after a phase 3/4.  Right now at least, the progression looks to be heading for 7/8 as we near the holidays.

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20 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Both the GEFS and GEPS have the Aleutian low in a nice position to push that western trough east.  Looks similar to the progression we have seen several times this season.

I do like that we are seeing these looks with the MJO fading into the COD after a phase 3/4.  Right now at least, the progression looks to be heading for 7/8 as we near the holidays.

I am not sure the outcome,  but this will in some form be a player,  whether though elongation of the vortex, displacement, etc. As we near hour mark 360 in fantasy land you can see the configuration may be a conducive one. This is also what HM mentioned two days ago, and it is still in the forecast currently moving forward.     

 

 

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@frd  Things definitely look to be shifting around.  The stagnant +heights and +temp anoms at 50mb over N Canada looks to get shoved east.  I really have no idea what to expect but check this out...certainly fantasy range but the FV3 has been hinting at a new warming at the end of the run.  Looks to originate in Northern Africa...same place this current warming started.  Wait and see if it has legs.

3Ro0MUr.png

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1 hour ago, frd said:

I am not sure the outcome,  but this will in some form be a player,  whether though elongation of the vortex, displacement, etc. As we near hour mark 360 in fantasy land you can see the configuration may be a conducive one. This is also what HM mentioned two days ago, and it is still in the forecast currently moving forward.     

 

 

It makes more sense for the initiating ridge breaking to be on this side considering the much larger area of ocean relative to land.

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Gladly will trade in a weak anafrontal wave for a Friday the 13th storm. Last week that was the one we were all focused on anyway. Let’s revisit that. B)

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