• Member Statistics

    15,756
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Chicago12
    Newest Member
    Chicago12
    Joined
Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

Recommended Posts

In December I'm ok waiting a little longer for snow....if I had my choice between the 13th or the 20th I'd be happy to wait until the 20th similar to the gfs op. At some point though I'd like to see more sn than ra on the quick look text output though

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another instance of not trusting modeling beyond 5-7day range this season. I'm sure most are already on that train. 5 days ago we were torching9ec71834446ce0c82de34bcf356da0ea.jpg&key=0cd3e0654adeed2791c610ffd4a1130738a63c1ac3660260955a1e5801078406

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Another instance of not trusting modeling beyond 5-7day range this season. I'm sure most are already on that train. 5 days ago we were torching9ec71834446ce0c82de34bcf356da0ea.jpg&key=0cd3e0654adeed2791c610ffd4a1130738a63c1ac3660260955a1e5801078406

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

The guidance, especially the euro, has continually tried to progress the pacific pattern and crash a trough into the west. In reality the Aleutian low keeps reforming and pumping the epo ridge. Any breakdown is brief. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ggem has gives us snow from the Wednesday frontal wave. Gfs does for the N+W folks as well. Getting there. 

Issue I’m seeing right now for next weekend is that the models are picking up on a northern stream shortwave moving into the Midwest at the same time we want our storm. That both pushes the high pressure out faster and some, like the euro, try to phase it in which pulls the storm west. Still a very long way to go so things will change.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ggem has gives us snow from the Wednesday frontal wave. Gfs does for the N+W folks as well. Getting there. 

Issue I’m seeing right now for next weekend is that the models are picking up on a northern stream shortwave moving into the Midwest at the same time we want our storm. That both pushes the high pressure out faster and some, like the euro, try to phase it in which pulls the storm west. Still a very long way to go so things will change.

What a storm depicted on the Euro for day 9/10 . Verbatim....it gets down to 990s while still in the ne gulf and is 970s sitting over central Va . That would be some serious wind driven rain here and bigtime Appalachian snows . Curious to see the various outcomes the coming days for that period.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Overnight EPS was a little more favorable for the Dec 11/12 follow up wave compared to the OP.  The GEFS mostly agrees with the OP that there is potential for a 1-3 after the front clears.

 

966704798_DEC12EPS.thumb.png.8ae7b9549d2b9a3ca20a643db9205b82.png

EPS Above has a stronger push of the -EPO than 12z, resulting in the TPV stretching and pushing further south into the OH valley.

GEFS has the stronger EPO ridge but doesn't stretch the TPV as much, but notice in south TX as a piece is left behind from the cutter that precedes it.

1089509678_GEFSDec12.thumb.png.023efe21262b61514fc94e87b438038c.png

I like these tables below because it tries to show clustering.  This is the "best look" so far that I have seen from them for the Dec 11/12.

2116388033_Dec11EuroSnow.thumb.png.2fd8a6b69957bcefaad73af69913d43c.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What a storm depicted on the Euro for day 9/10 . Verbatim....it gets down to 990s while still in the ne gulf and is 970s sitting over central Va . That would be some serious wind driven rain here and bigtime Appalachian snows . Curious to see the various outcomes the coming days for that period.  

Snow mean approaching respectable between the 12th and the 20th on the EPS. 2" at DC. :weenie:

Looks active with multiple chances, ofc the prospect of total failure is always there in a pattern like this.

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What a storm depicted on the Euro for day 9/10 . Verbatim....it gets down to 990s while still in the ne gulf and is 970s sitting over central Va . That would be some serious wind driven rain here and bigtime Appalachian snows . Curious to see the various outcomes the coming days for that period.  

We just need to push that storm out over Hatteras and crawl it NE. Can you please make that happen? And since I’m asking for gifts, throw in a nice cold H to the North as well. ;)

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Ggem has gives us snow from the Wednesday frontal wave. Gfs does for the N+W folks as well. Getting there. 

Issue I’m seeing right now for next weekend is that the models are picking up on a northern stream shortwave moving into the Midwest at the same time we want our storm. That both pushes the high pressure out faster and some, like the euro, try to phase it in which pulls the storm west. Still a very long way to go so things will change.

 

FB_IMG_1575636930356.jpg

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looping the ensembles, gotta say thanks to the E PAC as there seems to be enough ridging and it really is trying to keep hope alive for use while we wait for the AO/NAO to get a better look to it. 

IMO as long as we keep that feature, we have a shot at something.  GEPS/EPS look similar so thats a + to me.  Mind you I'm just looking out to 10 days.  Like PSU stated a while back any unfavorable looks seem to be brief/transient.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@WxUSAF Eps starting to show the scand ridge pushing into GL D10-15 like the gefs. That could be the tipping point that turns a so-so but workable pattern into something pretty good. Get that going and we'll prob start seeing 50/50s and/or bn heights in the 50/50 region. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^excellent! At the moment I’m feeling reasonably confident of my low bar for December having a chance of clearance:

1. Less than 3F above normal

2. 1-2 accumulating snow events 

3. No 60F within 3 days of Xmas on either side 

 

  • Like 4
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

^excellent! At the moment I’m feeling reasonably confident of my low bar for December having a chance of clearance:

1. Less than 3F above normal

2. 1-2 accumulating snow events 

3. No 60F within 3 days of Xmas on either side 

 

We always need the little things to break right. Next week only needs some sort of transient block to keep hp from running east. Right now that's not looking too good and it's all at the hands of the progressive atlantic. Shove the mass of bn heights balled up over GL south and future cold highs to the north meet resistance.

Your short list seems reasonable to me. Just keep bringing the chances and it will accidentally snow here. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@WxUSAF Eps starting to show the scand ridge pushing into GL D10-15 like the gefs. That could be the tipping point that turns a so-so but workable pattern into something pretty good. Get that going and we'll prob start seeing 50/50s and/or bn heights in the 50/50 region. 

Thats what GEPS/EPS both show and part of what I mean by waiting.  Verbaitim that ridging needs to retrograde a bit to get to what you are suggesting, but its not far away from decent 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

More about AAM. I had that data from earlier filed away from a few years back when there was another debate wrt AAM and snowfall. But I wanted to look this up on a hunch. Low AAM is usually associated with a Nina and high AAM with a nino. So yes they do skew somewhat the way you would expect. But there may be some wag the dog going on there. If we take out Nina’s and cold neutral following Nina’s and only look at years similar to this one, neutral or weak warm enso following neutral or warm enso years...what would the results be for -AAM?

Well there have been 8 such years with a -AAM. 1960-61, 1961-62, 1962-63, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1981-82, 1993-94, 2013-14. 

 6/8 had above avg snowfall. And get this, the 2 that didn’t were 1962 and 1994. Both were barely below normal at DCA but above for most west of 95 and both were memorable winters for various reasons. None of the 8 were “bad”. 

Finally im not even sure how - the AAM is going to be. It was running historically low in the fall but has been on the rise and is near neutral now.

Awesome stuff here. Love it ! 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@WxUSAF Eps starting to show the scand ridge pushing into GL D10-15 like the gefs. That could be the tipping point that turns a so-so but workable pattern into something pretty good. Get that going and we'll prob start seeing 50/50s and/or bn heights in the 50/50 region. 

I don't recall the exact specifics, ( coffee still kicking in )  but reading over a post at 33 someone noted a similar evolution that did happen and triggered a negative  NAO which was one factor responsible for the Jan 2016 miracle that trended from a rain event many days prior to your victory of the winter.  Is that all true ?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@poolz1  keep an eye on this in the week or two ahead via BAMM , as well as what HM mentioned about the near splitting vortex, further down. Low chance but still of interest. 

Also seems like a bit of a spread with "maybe" an improving AO towards mid month and beyond.    

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, frd said:

I don't recall the exact specifics, ( coffee still kicking in )  but reading over a post at 33 someone noted a similar evolution that did happen and triggered a negative  NAO which was one factor responsible for the Jan 2016 miracle that trended from a rain event many days prior to your victory of the winter.  Is that all true ?  

Excuse my 3rd grade paint skills but this visual is decent. The scand ridge signal is just now showing up but starting to become more prominent. We want it to push all the way into GL and that will force lower heights/confluence/compressed flow in the 50/50 region. That can suppress storm track and allow slower exits of cold highs to our north. 

UaOcAyi.jpg

 

 

I don't remember exactly what happened in 2016 but iirc that was a bootleg/transient west based -NAO block. It could have been at the hands of the scand ridge. I just can't remember. No matter how it shakes out, scand ridging poking poleward is always a net plus in these parts. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

If, this "colder" risk does indeed verify, it would go counter the recent warm-ups after 12/20 and potentially make many snow weenies happy.

The storm threats look to continue, the more there are the higher the odds we eventually score especially if what Bob mentioned above continues to progress as well. Maybe we eventually progress to a Northern Mid Atlantic SECS pattern. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@frd

Here's the lead up to the Jan 16 event. It was just a perfectly placed/large west based -NAO. It formed at the perfect time but it was not at the hands of scand ridging. 

d1LISas.jpg

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@frd

Here's the lead up to the Jan 16 event. It was just a perfectly placed/large west based -NAO. It formed at the perfect time but it was not at the hands of scand ridging. 

d1LISas.jpg

Just curious, how do you make these composites?  Is there a website?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, frd said:

I don't recall the exact specifics, ( coffee still kicking in )  but reading over a post at 33 someone noted a similar evolution that did happen and triggered a negative  NAO which was one factor responsible for the Jan 2016 miracle that trended from a rain event many days prior to your victory of the winter.  Is that all true ?  

The blocking that helped with 2016 did mostly originate from across the pole.  The Kara block was a major player.  I am not sure it was every really rain, but the models did show a very marginal temp setup and some runs had a mix from 10-12 days out. From about day 9 in they started to lock in though.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, LP08 said:

GFS has "snow" into the cities by 6z Wednesday.  Front has a more E-W orientation.

We know how that plays out though...may we see some white rain? possible. But the chances of accum are slim to none in that kind of set up in my opinion. NW winds usually dry things out enough before cold enough

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.