• Member Statistics

    16,019
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    BlckJckKhoWX
    Newest Member
    BlckJckKhoWX
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Basically what we have been seeing.  High pressure scooting in tandem with a southern low.  0% chance that is has that nailed down at this point but still nice to see.

 

Unfortunately as many have stated, without blocking there will be numerous run to run changes depending on timing of the artic highs and different pieces of energy flying around.

Understood. Thank you

In the season of being thankful I’m thankful tracking something. And the Euro being semi onboard - for now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PivotPoint said:

Understood. Thank you

In the season of being thankful I’m thankful tracking something. And the Euro being semi onboard - for now.

yep....20 minutes of wintry mix and then rain!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Was just going to post this.  A perfect track Miller A but the High is already off the coast by the time it approaches us.  Let's NOT do this, haha.

 

The messy phase and trough amplification is ugly as there zero mechanism to lock cold air in. However, the southern shortwave itself can do the job without needing to phase with anything. This one is going to drive us nuts for a while it seems. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The messy phase and trough amplification is ugly as there zero mechanism to lock cold air in. However, the southern shortwave itself can do the job without needing to phase with anything. This one is going to drive us nuts for a while it seems. 

So usual then.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The messy phase and trough amplification is ugly as there zero mechanism to lock cold air in. However, the southern shortwave itself can do the job without needing to phase with anything. This one is going to drive us nuts for a while it seems. 

Bob, am I correct that it will be three more days until the shortwave comes onto the California Coast ? The particular latitude may be a player as well. 

If so, more changes are a coming no doubt.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, frd said:

 

I hope HM's hand remains hot at the table. 

 

 

   

You guys always seem to forget HM is not IMBY-centric like most other Twitter and forum mets so as long as someone in the eastern seaboard is getting snow, he will say it’s a “snowy pattern for the east” and such. It’s often fool’s gold to assume he is talking about anything that will benefit us. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think what's important is both the GFS and the Euro (as well as ensemble guidance) have a strong antecedent cold air mass, west coast ridging and a shortwave tracking along and up the coast. The issue here is timing - if the system can arrive earlier and/or the high takes longer to retreat, then I suspect you could be seeing more favorable solutions. Lots to work out over the coming days, but for mid-December there are far worse looks we could be seeing.

  • Like 12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

You guys always seem to forget HM is not IMBY-centric like most other Twitter and forum mets so as long as someone in the eastern seaboard is getting snow, he will say it’s a “snowy pattern for the east” and such. It’s often fool’s gold to assume he is talking about anything that will benefit us. 

To me he talks mostly of pattern drivers and such. I would think that benefits a large area. 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, frd said:

Bob, am I correct that it will be three more days until the shortwave comes onto the California Coast ? The particular latitude may be a player as well. 

If so, more changes are a coming no doubt.   

Yes, 3 days until the southern shortwave hits Cali. The TPV dropping down will dictate the track once it clears the intermountain west though. I don't think variations in latitude will make much different. Where the euro gets really complicated is the northern stream digging down and energizing the shortwave. It's really weak/sheared (almost invisible) D7 but winds up as the streams phase. We're going to have to wait awhile before any type of stream interaction can be figured out. 

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.png

 

Models are not going to do well out in time with the split flow happening along the west coast. All the little pieces are important. Ops generally don't start nailing that stuff down until d4-5 max

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Am I missing something when people say the shortwave hits Cali in 3 days? That’s the shortwave for the cutter and any possible anafrontal activity. Shortwave for next weekend doesn’t look like it comes onshore until like 5.5-6 days from now.

Speaking of the anafrontal wave, euro has it clearly but quite far south.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The problem is having a good positioned high over a week away is not what we want to see.

Well that’s incorrect and sort of the voodoo  pessimism that’s often on display.

it tough to snow around DC but when the set up as depicted is very snow favorable then That Is The Time to go for it.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To me,  euro at 192hrs looks textbook classic for a I95 snowstorm except for the look over the Midwest. Bring a bit more high pressure over the lakes and plains and don’t have the northern stream wave try and phase in and it’s an absolute mauling.

  • Like 6
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

To me,  euro at 192hrs looks textbook classic for a I95 snowstorm except for the look over the Midwest. Bring a bit more high pressure over the lakes and plains and don’t have the northern stream wave try and phase in and it’s an absolute mauling.

Here's the EPS.  Like you said, have a little more ridging or slow that NS SW down some and its a nice look.  Like the +PNA almost in the perfect spot poking up through Idaho.

 

 

Euro 198.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Was just going to post this.  A perfect track Miller A but the High is already off the coast by the time it approaches us.  Let's NOT do this, haha.

Euro DEC 13_2.png

Not all departing highs are equal. Some go out northeast or ene, this is more nne.  This is radiating down at  1028 mb, Vastly more helpful than a departing 1010

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Webb is onboard. The point of this is that a more southern stream only storm is less likely to get pulled inland up the TN valley or Apps and rain us.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Here's the EPS.  Like you said, have a little more ridging or slow that NS SW down some and its a nice look.  Like the +PNA almost in the perfect spot poking up through Idaho.

 

 

Euro 198.png

That’s a pretty nice look. If a piece of that Baffin Island vortex can reinforce some confluence and high pressure to our N and NW (it’s already there to our NE) were getting in a good spot.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Am I missing something when people say the shortwave hits Cali in 3 days? That’s the shortwave for the cutter and any possible anafrontal activity. Shortwave for next weekend doesn’t look like it comes onshore until like 5.5-6 days from now.

Speaking of the anafrontal wave, euro has it clearly but quite far south.

I was speaking about the euro run only. It's a different progression than the gfs. The euro focuses more on the lead shortwave that hits Cali in 3-4 days and lollygags from there. GFS is more progressive and focuses on the next one in line. No sense wasting a bunch of time discussing discrete pieces 6+ days out in time though.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I was speaking about the euro run only. It's a different progression than the gfs. The euro focuses more on the lead shortwave that hits Cali in 3-4 days and lollygags from there. GFS is more progressive and focuses on the next one in line. No sense wasting a bunch of time discussing discrete pieces 6+ days out in time though.  

Yeah, I see that now. Fun to have a discrete window to track, even if the rug will probably get pulled on us by Sunday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, frd said:

 Reading some folks whom tie in the tropics with the HL, they state tropical forcing including AAM and GLAAM are lacking in terms of promoting the  mechanisms needed  to achieve  durable HL blocking, 

 

You seem to be in a dark place so I will throw out some numbers that might soothe the soul.

ESRL kept records on the GLAAM from 1958 to 2014.  They no longer update that.  There are places to get it but I just used those years of record.

In the last 50 years DCA has had 38 months with 6" or more of snowfall

The GLAMM was - 12 times, Neutral 14 times, and +12 times

DCA had 10" or more of snow 19 times

The GLAMM was - 6 times, Neutral 7 times, + 6 times.

There have been 17 seasons where 2/3 reporting stations had above normal snowfall during that period.

The GLAMM was - 6 times, Neutral 5 times, + 6 times.

Since 1950 the January/February months following a +AO December were

12 negative AO, 16 Neutral AO, 20 positive AO.  

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You seem to be in a dark place so I will throw out some numbers that might soothe the soul.

ESRL kept records on the GLAAM from 1958 to 2014.  They no longer update that.  There are places to get it but I just used those years of record.

In the last 50 years DCA has had 38 months with 6" or more of snowfall

The GLAMM was - 12 times, Neutral 14 times, and +12 times

DCA had 10" or more of snow 19 times

The GLAMM was - 6 times, Neutral 7 times, + 6 times.

There have been 17 seasons where 2/3 reporting stations had above normal snowfall during that period.

The GLAMM was - 6 times, Neutral 5 times, + 6 times.

Since 1950 the January/February months following a +AO December were

12 negative AO, 16 Neutral AO, 20 positive AO.  

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to post that psu ! 

 

And, this is not as bad as I would have thought: 

Since 1950 the January/February months following a +AO December were

12 negative AO, 16 Neutral AO, 20 positive AO.  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, I see that now. Fun to have a discrete window to track, even if the rug will probably get pulled on us by Sunday.

CMC has the same shortwave as the euro but doesn't do anything with it. GFS is by far the most progressive. With pretty big differences through d5 on the gfs/euro/cmc, they all end up in the same general place d7-10. More questions than answers as usual. GEFS insists on more chances down the line so maybe it won't be as painful when the rug gets pulled. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Bob Chill your call about the +PDO seems to be happening in real time. The November figure was positive. Of course we might improve on that this month.   

If this oceanic researcher is correct with his formula calculation,  then the PDO should rapidly increase in the + range later this month and in Jan. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, frd said:

@Bob Chill your call about the +PDO seems to be happening in real time. The November figure was positive. Of course we might improve on that this month.   

If this oceanic researcher is correct with his formula calculation,  then the PDO should rapidly increase in the + range later this month and in Jan. 

Yes, it's been the only long range clue I've liked so far (other than the -AO that disappeared). Seeing the PDO shift positive and having split flow into NA isn't a coincidence. Unless blocking returns we're going to have to hang our whole wardrobe on the Pac helping us out in these parts. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You seem to be in a dark place so I will throw out some numbers that might soothe the soul.

ESRL kept records on the GLAAM from 1958 to 2014.  They no longer update that.  There are places to get it but I just used those years of record.

In the last 50 years DCA has had 38 months with 6" or more of snowfall

The GLAMM was - 12 times, Neutral 14 times, and +12 times

DCA had 10" or more of snow 19 times

The GLAMM was - 6 times, Neutral 7 times, + 6 times.

There have been 17 seasons where 2/3 reporting stations had above normal snowfall during that period.

The GLAMM was - 6 times, Neutral 5 times, + 6 times.

Since 1950 the January/February months following a +AO December were

12 negative AO, 16 Neutral AO, 20 positive AO.  

 

I am having trouble finding information differentiating AAM vs GLAAM.  I know have seen GLAAM described as "Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum" and AAM as "Atmospheric Angular Momentum".  So what is the difference?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting, wonder what will happen when the  record +IOD starts to weaken or the Eastern region 1.2 becomes colder. I believe 1.2 is expected to get colder again later this month.  

Also, signs down the road the MJO starts to improve.  This may coincide with the next attempt of a - NAO , later in the month,  or early in Jan.  So, there is hope that both the Pac and the Atlantic may both become favorable for a time.  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ouch

Strong/organized storm = bad. No way around that except remarkable luck with every.single.feature

Oddly, the EPS shows the best chance for snow shortly after the front goes through next week. Didn't look into how they got there but around 25% of the eps members drop snow thurs/fri. Could be anafrontal or could be the trailing southern shortwave. Not sure. EPS doesn't like the followup event. Mostly rainers. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

All rain from this in mid december? Lol. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

This looks just like the near miss storm from last mid December 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ji said:

This looks just like the near miss storm from last mid December 

The one from the like 9-10th? I’ll take one of those again!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.