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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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If his formula is correct will be interesting to see the outcomes regarding the warm blob.  I know we are talking degrees here but combined with ice free waters near Alaska may assist in blocking. 

Emanuele Di Lorenzo
@manu_ocean
Ocean & climate scientist. Dad of four. Professor & Director of Ocean Science & Engineering .

https://www.dropbox.com/s/xxuft0mmb3qzvzb/DiLorenzo-heatwave-prediction-2020.pdf?dl=0

 

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5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

There is just no way that this from wxbell can be the mean or median for snowfall. (note the circled area is mostly from the system that passed in overnight).

gfssnowmeans.gif.c89a02482272deb1bb83140d2c7f12e9.gif

 

Not when I see this. 

gfssnowindimems.gif.f4a57edf746d37f37a82bf2ece70b974.gif

 

I would say that the top map may be the Control run of the GEFS but even that doesn't make sense. At this point I think something is just wrong with their coding. 

Besides that, there are quite a few good hits in the mix. For those that keep track we are seeing the hits centered roughly on day 8, day 10-11, day 15-16.

Not sure but I think this site might give a better representation of the mean. 

 

 

It is found at https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

BB32A1A6-EAF3-44F0-8EEA-AD163A4C2E75.png

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Just caught up with the overnight runs. My suspicion of the 12z Euro yesterday being too fast (unfortunately) appears to be the case. Plenty of lead time to watch things evolve and we won't even be back in the game until the prog'd cold front pushes through here mid next week.

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+PDO continues to slowly build so that's good. That "Nino" though... not lookin so hot. I didn't expect to have Nino conditions this year so not much of a surprise. 

anomnight.12.2.2019.gif

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2 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

@40/70 Benchmark - the board I posted that on is geared toward NYC metro, so the 1-3" forecast was specifically for PHL-NYC corridor.

@frd and @Ralph Wiggum, thanks for your comments. And Ralph, that is generally an accurate description of my thoughts. I expect February will be the most conducive, compared to Jan/Dec.

Gotcha.

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

+PDO continues to slowly build so that's good. That "Nino" though... not lookin so hot. I didn't expect to have Nino conditions this year so not much of a surprise. 

anomnight.12.2.2019.gif

Yeah, but the atmosphere is still behaving like one for now. Ride that train, Bob. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, but the atmosphere is still behaving like one for now. Ride that train, Bob. 

I'm all in until I'm out. Luckily there haven't been much if any hints that things go to hell and stay there. OTOH- patience will likely be tested over the next few weeks. Any potential event will need sweet timing as winter wx windows appear to be short lived in progressive flow. But I do agree that flow is active and the southern stream seems prone to get involved. 

I'm hoping the d10+ EPS "bias" we've seen over the last couple years of digging too deep in the SW and pushing cold east too slow is happening right now. I'm not head over heels with ens guidance D7+ but it's far from a shutout look for now. Overrunning is our best chance as it seems like anything amplified is going to pass west of us. 

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Speaking of overrunning, gorgeous setup in uber-fantasyland GFS that delivers a modest event, with another on the way at the end.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Speaking of overrunning, gorgeous setup in uber-fantasyland GFS that delivers a modest event, with another on the way at the end.

The broad conus trough is key. We won't have a deep entrenched cold airmass but we can play with fire on the edges. I hope the gfs/gefs has the right idea versus the steep ridge/trough stuff we're seeing on the euro/eps.  

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@Bob Chill @WxUSAF

Was wondering what you think about this regarding the current nino/neutral pac.  In the past enso neutral winters favored above normal snowfall.  But in the last 20 years most of them have been pretty awful. But is that really climate change or more down to the fact that neutral enso years lately have had some other negative pattern driver attached (like a hostile QBO, ugly PDO sst, following a Nina). We haven’t seemed to have many neutrals where the other factors we want were lined up well. This year could be a good test of how the base state in an enso neutral year has changed because with a favorable North Pac SST, coming off a weak nino, high snowcover, North Atlantic Tripoli, favorable QBO phase, this is the type of neutral that historically should skew snowy. Not saying epic year just in the past we would expect normal to above normal snow with this look. But the total fail of neutral years lately makes me wonder.  Curious what others think?

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Ha, no idea. It’s all such small sample size statistics and then try and account for a warming climate and who TF knows? Not to mention how much random chance impacts our snowfall vs. places farther north. 

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@psuhoffman No ideas worth mentioning. I'm inclined to think it's nothing more than the streaky/tricky nature of how we get snow and not some big picture change in climate. Some years the little things that we always need to help snow chances come easy and other years the little things do the opposite and screw us. 

I do like where the GFS/GEFS is going in fantasy land. This is a great overrunning type pattern and supports the op's general idea:

500h_anom.nh.png

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, no idea. It’s all such small sample size statistics and then try and account for a warming climate and who TF knows? Not to mention how much random chance impacts our snowfall vs. places farther north. 

Yea that’s why I feel how this winter goes could be a bit telling. Chance is huge. But if we get a decent pattern much of the year and just get unlucky a lot that would register differently in my mind than if we simply have very few real threats.  On the other hand I wouldn’t want to repeat 2000 again. The pattern sucked other than 10 days but we got hit 3 times by all 3 storms in the only workable window all year. A repeat of that likely wouldn’t end as well. 

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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea that’s why I feel how this winter goes could be a bit telling. Chance is huge. But if we get a decent pattern much of the year and just get unlucky a lot that would register differently in my mind than if we simply have very few real threats.  On the other hand I wouldn’t want to repeat 2000 again. The pattern sucked other than 10 days but we got hit 3 times by all 3 storms in the only workable window all year. A repeat of that likely wouldn’t end as well. 

ill take a 2000 repeat again...that was a glorious couple of weeks and its usually better than 90% of the winters we usually get

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Holy cow is the GEFS ever ripe D8-10. Confluence in New England from the TPV in Labrador, coupled PNA/EPO ridging out west and a gorgeous deep s/w moving through the southern plains. Precip panels look lovely. 

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Holy cow is the GEFS ever ripe D8-10. Confluence in New England from the TPV in Labrador, coupled PNA/EPO ridging out west and a gorgeous deep s/w moving through the southern plains. Precip panels look lovely. 

 

GEFS Day 8.png

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Alright mods, this is a WDI (we're due index) post, so if this is a bit much feel free to move to banter:

I've always bee intrigued by a strange trend: By the BWI numbers...Since 1993, we have never gone more than 4 years without getting at least one snowstorm that gives us a foot (so usually every 3-4 years!) This winter will mark 4 years since 2016...Trends can always be broken, of course...but until it's broken, I'll put a little hope in it! :D 

(Note: Again, this is based stricly on BWI records...obviously some folks got a foot last year...but BWI didn't, lol)

(2 footer snowstorms have a similar, but longer trend: it's always every 6-7 years. 2016 was 6 years from 2010...wonder if that means we get another in 2022 or 2023? Lol)

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright mods, this is a WDI (we're due index) post, so if this is a bit much feel free to move to banter:

I've always bee intrigued by a strange trend: By the BWI numbers...Since 1993, we have never gone more than 4 years without getting at least one snowstorm that gives us a foot (so usually every 3-4 years!) This winter will mark 4 years since 2016...Trends can always be broken, of course...but until it's broken, I'll put a little hope in it! :D 

(Note: Again, this is based stricly on BWI records...obviously some folks got a foot last year...but BWI didn't, lol)

(2 footer snowstorms have a similar, but longer trend: it's always every 6-7 years. 2016 was 6 years from 2010...wonder if that means we get another in 2022 or 2023? Lol)

I don't think the WDI has any real value,  whether by chaos or statistical merit. Too short a reference period as well.

If you look way back there are periods when many years pass without any real significant snow.   

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright mods, this is a WDI (we're due index) post, so if this is a bit much feel free to move to banter:

I've always bee intrigued by a strange trend: By the BWI numbers...Since 1993, we have never gone more than 4 years without getting at least one snowstorm that gives us a foot (so usually every 3-4 years!) This winter will mark 4 years since 2016...Trends can always be broken, of course...but until it's broken, I'll put a little hope in it! :D 

(Note: Again, this is based stricly on BWI records...obviously some folks got a foot last year...but BWI didn't, lol)

(2 footer snowstorms have a similar, but longer trend: it's always every 6-7 years. 2016 was 6 years from 2010...wonder if that means we get another in 2022 or 2023? Lol)

This is something that is inconclusive and I never think you would get anything out of it. I would link this to the ALAI (Animal Life Activity Index) where, just before a snow, there is a huge uptick in animals (mainly squirrels and deer) foraging for food.. also geese flying. I am certain there is a correlation, but no good evidence to back it up. 

 

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

I don't think the WDI has any real value,  whether by chaos or statistical merit. Too short a reference period as well.

If you look way back there are periods when many years pass without any real significant snow.   

 

 

Oh of course...so it could mean nothing at all. Just a current streak in a small 26 year window that hasn't yet been broken. (now I'm a streak guy, and when something is current, I'll put just a few coins of hope in it until it breaks, lol) Could always be broken anytime! (And of course WDI is just a joking term, lol)

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Just a little CAD on the euro

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Ice storms in the SC foothills are usually good for us....lol

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7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This is something that is inconclusive and I never think you would get anything out of it. I would link this to the ALAI (Animal Life Activity Index) where, just before a snow, there is a huge uptick in animals (mainly squirrels and deer) foraging for food.. also geese flying. I am certain there is a correlation, but no good evidence to back it up. 

 

Totally get that from a statistical view...just something kinda fluky that doesn't have an explanation. (now it will be funny if we do indeed get a foot at one point this winter, lol)

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Euro shows how short the window for winter wx is with no blocking and progressive flow. Weird evolution and that's a red flag in itself but the idea of running precip into cold HP remains on the table for late next week. Like always... small differences in timing and placement will have large impacts on sensible wx. It's how we roll in these parts without a block. 

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Always hilarious how fast models erode CAD. Euro goes from ice into Alabama to rain in Allentown, PA, in 18 hours. Ok, yeah, sure. 

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