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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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Normal temps and AN precip for January and February? I’d take that in a hot second. Of course the seasonal’s verification sucks.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I agree with this wrt the cold “retreating “ but also the actual ground temp where the cold remains is often over done meaning it gets modeled too warm and warming too fast at longer ranges.

Would be nice to take advantage of a pressing airmass instead of a retreating one. Surface CAD is usually modeled too warm so we can make assumptions there but if precip is moving towards us with HP to the NE then the mids almost always get roasted faster than models. Can't really parse much this far out though. The front that ushers in the cold air is still 5+ days away. 

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3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

In this type of pattern the best case scenario is a 1-3/2-4 deal from a modest wave sliding underneath. Anything too amplified is going to take a west track, and ends up mostly rain for I-95 and east, esp in mid December.

 

3 hours ago, frd said:

Seems that the EPS and the GEFS are worlds apart in the eventual outcome. 

But, as mentioned already, without any significant help from the NAO or the AO regions any storm will simply cut despite how cold it is close to the event. 

Absent a favorable blocking regime EVERY storm is unlikely to work out but I wouldn't be so quick to totally discount the chance of something more significant than a 1-3" event.  There are ways it "could" happen.  The simplest is timing.  Get a trailing wave to amplify.  Time up a STJ wave with a departing system that acts as a 50/50.  A displaced TPV in a favorable location can work too.  Basically there can be temporary factors that can act to suppress a somewhat amplified system.  Anything that really goes to town and bombs will likely cut.  A very slow moving system just won't work because it would take too long and likely lose the temporary favorable setup.  But we can get moderate events from somewhat progressive but juiced up waves. Please don't take this to mean I think that is likely. Significant snow is unlikely in any base state other than a good blocking regime, but we do get moderate events from non blocking situations and this is one of the patterns that makes that possible.  Likely no, but possible.  The most likely scenario is just what you describe but there is always hope we get lucky.  

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19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm shocked that the 1052hp on the 6z gfs disappeared. Much weaker cold push = blah

Something in between the 06z and 12z would probably get the subforum  on the board with a 1 - 3/ 2-4 " event before a changeover. Most would probably be happy with that. Except for @Ji lol.

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Something in between the 06z and 12z would probably get the subforum  on the board with a 1 - 3/ 2-4 " event before a changeover. Most would probably be happy with that. Except for @Ji lol.

We're going through the typical shotgun medium range solutions. Solutions do seem to be slowly converging on the idea of some sort of system approaching from the SW at the same general time late next week so that's good. Still an eternity away from figuring out the important details. It's more common for the for us to fail than score on the first chance after a shutout pattern. I'm very interested in how long the winter wx window lasts down the line. Is the whole setup just a transient shot of cold before a return to blah or will there be multiple shots at something before the wheels come off? 

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I know its an OP run at range but I really like the  general look of the 12z GFS. Cold enough  air close by and plenty of moisture traversing the south. If we get 3 or 4 chances we may score with 1 of them.

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're going through the typical shotgun medium range solutions. Solutions do seem to be slowly converging on the idea of some sort of system approaching from the SW at the same general time late next week so that's good. Still an eternity away from figuring out the important details. It's more common for the for us to fail than score on the first chance after a shutout pattern. I'm very interested in how long the winter wx window lasts down the line. Is the whole setup just a transient shot of cold before a return to blah or will there be multiple shots at something before the wheels come off? 

GGEM has an even goofier setup than the GFS if that’s possible. I think right now we have an idea of the players that might/could/probably will be on the board. An arctic high and a strong southern stream s/w. That’s a good mix for a starting position. Lots of details to work out on positions and relative strength.

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55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm shocked that the 1052hp on the 6z gfs disappeared. Much weaker cold push = blah

Check out the gefs. Bullish on the event. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Haven’t seen it yet, but @tombo82685 saying GEFS is liking the anafrontal event more this run.

Need to see the member solution but the mean is meh imo. Cold chasing precip. Def has the TN valley wave though...

qpf_012h.conus.png

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm shocked that the 1052hp on the 6z gfs disappeared. Much weaker cold push = blah

We of the SE forum just lost the wind in our sails.  Maybe it will be back.

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GEFS seems equally spread out between amped/rain, mixed, or mostly snow from what I can tell. It hard to capture spread with a single time stamp but this shows it well enough. The only clear thing we don't want to see is a strong storm as all the strong solutions are the wrong ptype. 

f216.gif

 

 

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I was really hoping once the AO peaked recently we would not have another attempt at a + 3 SD or higher. It appears another run up is possibly on the way. The image below is from the 12/4 , but if you looked today it is much higher. Could not get that to post correctly.  

Having the AO drop down in November was great, but I believe you can not gather that decline as a proxy to what the upcoming winter may have in store regarding NAM  state.

Another deep dive in December I would speculate has more relevant meaning for the months ahead such as Jan. and Feb., maybe even March, versus a November dive down. I am sure there is research on this somewhere. 

I could almost speculate that possibly the drop in November was more an outcome of the combination of typhoon involvement, and early season mechanics. So, I guess more a head fake versus a real signal.  @Isotherm  ,  Benchmark or even HM might be able to answer that possibility.    

ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

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7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And then there's the 6z GFS. Not sure how this track comes with the 500mb depiction after phasing in the South Central Plains but ok.

Eta: has a similar OV low to the Euro as it advances. Without the block to the N that scenario seems almost inevitable ie thump to mix. But for mid Dec....we take. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

With a 30.25 high over us and that low well underneath of us this would stay snow for a long time 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS seems equally spread out between amped/rain, mixed, or mostly snow from what I can tell. It hard to capture spread with a single time stamp but this shows it well enough. The only clear thing we don't want to see is a strong storm as all the strong solutions are the wrong ptype. 

f216.gif

 

 

The overall strength and track of this next rainer coming our way will really set the stage for the cold shot thereafter. A more westerly track of this next system with a strong LP that cuts hard across the lakes would favor us (IMO) for high pressure dropping deeper into the central states thereafter.

This would hopefully allow the retrieating HP more space and time to leave us with a solid CAD, in the event we get a strong enough shortwave to form in the first place. 

Im rooting for a strong system on this next one. Followed by deep dive of Hp into the plains and a shortwave that rides the boundary as the HP retreats to our NE. 2-5in with mix would be fantastic. 

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Webb

I really like the way the GFS & GEFS have been trending w/ the shortwave that enters California in about 60-66 hours (going towards yesterday's weenie 12z Euro run). If we can continue to get more digging & more stream separation on future runs, I might be in business for a winter storm later next week.

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7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

With a 30.25 high over us and that low well underneath of us this would stay snow for a long time 

This is actually one to be optimistic about as depicted. Solid albeit departing high with a replenishing high to the nw and modest low pressure to our south. Hour after hour of light to moderate snow, surface looks about 28F.

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

This is actually one to be optimistic about as depicted. Solid albeit departing high with a replenishing high to the nw and modest low pressure to our south. Hour after hour of light to moderate snow, surface looks about 28F.

The problem is having a good positioned high over a week away is not what we want to see.

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16 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's the same fv3 as last year. lol

You mean the same fv3 that gave Philly 2 feet of snow last new years eve?

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Nice looking setup on the EURO through 168.

Whether it's a hit or not, the timing of the HP and shortwave progression is very good. Gives plenty of wiggle room for a weaker/further north HP placement.

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Just now, PivotPoint said:

Please elaborate kind sir

Basically what we have been seeing.  High pressure scooting in tandem with a southern low.  0% chance that is has that nailed down at this point but still nice to see.

 

Unfortunately as many have stated, without blocking there will be numerous run to run changes depending on timing of the artic highs and different pieces of energy flying around.

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Basically what we have been seeing.  High pressure scooting in tandem with a southern low.  0% chance that is has that nailed down at this point but still nice to see.

 

Unfortunately as many have stated, without blocking there will be numerous run to run changes depending on timing of the artic highs and different pieces of energy flying around.

Exactly. The euro solution verbatim is a toaster bath scenario with cold escaping before precip but the progression/track prior keeps the door wide open. The timing of the weak southern shortwave is far from nailed down. Heck, the existence itself of said shortwave isn't nailed down. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. The euro solution verbatim is a toaster bath scenario with cold escaping before precip but the progression/track prior keeps the door wide open. The timing of the weak southern shortwave is far from nailed down. Heck, the existence itself of said shortwave isn't nailed down. 

Was just going to post this.  A perfect track Miller A but the High is already off the coast by the time it approaches us.  Let's NOT do this, haha.

Euro DEC 13_2.png

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