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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A few op runs have hinted at that. 0z euro and the last couple GGEM runs I think. Key would be a bit of wave spacing so the cold air can get here and then the wave can ride along the boundary. 

Yeah, GGEM has been hinting the last several runs. 

It really is amazing how many of these we scored in 13/14....such a touchy way to get snow.  So many things can go wrong quick....more than usual.  But, this is about the timeframe those systems started showing up on models in those years....maybe more around the D5-6 timeframe.

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1 hour ago, frd said:

@Maestrobjwa I know you have an interest in this, I bring you a couple short posts from 33, one from a very informed member, the other from a met.   

From Bring-Back 1962-63

Low solar "can" be associated with colder winters.  More often the coldest winters tend to be just after the solar minimum.  We are right at the minimum right now.  There is usually a run of 3 winters which "can" be influenced and any combo of 0, 1, 2 or all 3 can see colder patterns. 

 

The last minimum was in 2009 and there was a triple hit.  In the UK (and Western Europe) we had a cold winter in 2008/9, 2009/10 and the coldest Dec since 1890 in 2010/11 (although the 2nd half of that winter was mild).

From Analog96 

DT was talking about that ( this might be a protracted min ) and how it could impact NEXT winter, as well.

Now, I just want to point out one thing.  Being in a solar minimum does NOT guarantee cold winters.

HOWEVER, it biases everything toward colder. 

Atmospheric indices/teleconnections, etc, still rule the atmospheric response.

BUT in a solar minimum, cold teleconnections will verify colder than otherwise, and warm teleconnections would verify "less" warm.

Teleconnections that favor average temperatures would probably result in a bit cooler than average.

 

 

I see...so if a winter was gonna be warmer, add in the minimum and we get average. Cold + minimum=below average...that's interesting! Now...wonder what bearing that has on snowfall totals? (I'd like to see this expanded to explore that relationship). And what happens with those teleconnections (like the AO, NAO, etc)

While this says that colder winters come just AFTER the minimum, the snowier winters seem to be more split between just before minimum (1995/96) and just after (2009/10). So now the question is...where will things fall for this winter? Lol And since I'm in weather streaks mode...I will mention that we have cashed in on the last three minimums (starting with 1986/87). Now before that the results were a little more varied (but still more cash-ins than misses near solar minimums!

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4 hours ago, yoda said:

I wouldn't mind tonights 00z GGEM run.  Get that 2nd storm a bit further south in its track and we'd all be happy

0z GGEM right on the coast or just inside, 0z GFS southern slider, 0z Euro amped and in Ohio. About right at this range. GFS is slow moving out the Southwest ULL so never phases. GGEM and Euro phase as the energy in the stj comes East but big diffs in timing of the NS sw. A fluke is still possible but without the Atl cooperating and no HL block going to be tough to get an all snow situation out of that. I think it was Bob that mentioned a cut West thump to rain is most likely in this setup if a full phase were to occur. Less of a phase would be better and that would likely benefit you guys more under the M/D line as it slides. At least we have something to track. Expectations in check for this one tho.

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And then there's the 6z GFS. Not sure how this track comes with the 500mb depiction after phasing in the South Central Plains but ok.

Eta: has a similar OV low to the Euro as it advances. Without the block to the N that scenario seems almost inevitable ie thump to mix. But for mid Dec....we take. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

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16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And then there's the 6z GFS. Not sure how this track comes with the 500mb depiction after phasing in the South Central Plains but ok.

Eta: has a similar OV low to the Euro as it advances. Without the block to the N that scenario seems almost inevitable ie thump to mix. But for mid Dec....we take. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_41.png

Surface stays pretty cold but we need a block up north.

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Clown map Kuchera 6zGFS WB through next weekend.  Would be great if we reach the total snowfall most long range forecasters are predicting for DC by mid December.  I love the pattern.  If not this one,  I think it will be fun this winter.  Lots of potential.  We just need a little luck which no model or forecaster knows how to calculate.  That is one reason why this hobby is so fun.

CB6617D7-DD7C-420F-9FFB-3B2D4FFDBC18.png

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17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Surface stays pretty cold but we need a block up north.

There is some ridging to the N of it and a well-timed transient 50/50 so it isnt horrible. Would like to see the ridging to the N of the ULL stay in tact and spread East with the system. Have actually seen that look quite a few times over the past 6 weeks or so as higher height break off the West Coast ridge and propogate downstream. Solid potential showing on the ops tho so there's that. But alas it will look different next run and the 36 runs thereafter lol.

20191205_060814.png

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Surface stays pretty cold but we need a block up north.

Its a progressive pattern with no NA blocking. None. There is going to be cold air around, and some action in the southern jet. With all the moving pieces its going to come down to timing and luck. Imo, we need to root for something like the 0z GFS/GEFS is depicting.

eta- what i am rooting for in this type of pattern would likely give your area bupkis. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That “storm” is showing up all over the gfs ens. Obviously there are timing differences and p-type differences, but it’s there for certain.

I liked what I saw on the 0z GEFS. More than one opportunity in this period-

1576476000-wAvgTyqkip0.png

 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That “storm” is showing up all over the gfs ens. Obviously there are timing differences and p-type differences, but it’s there for certain.

Seems that the EPS and the GEFS are worlds apart in the eventual outcome. 

But, as mentioned already, without any significant help from the NAO or the AO regions any storm will simply cut despite how cold it is close to the event. 

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In this type of pattern the best case scenario is a 1-3/2-4 deal from a modest wave sliding underneath. Anything too amplified is going to take a west track, and ends up mostly rain for I-95 and east, esp in mid December.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I liked what I saw on the 0z GEFS. More than one opportunity in this period-

I will get  excited when the highest snow amounts in the ensembles are South of us. Seems like the last 2 years the ensembles paint a rosy picture of 4 to 6 inch amounts ( several times in the season ) and they never happen. Worse yet, the 46 day snow total off the ECM, that also seems never to work out.  I cringe when I see folks like JB or even Maue post these sometimes. I admit it is entertaining, but hardly ever works out.   

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Just now, frd said:

I will get  excited when the highest snow amounts in the ensembles are South of us. Seems like the last 2 years the ensembles paint a rosy picture of 4 to 6 inch amounts ( several times in the season ) and they never happen. Worse yet, the 46 day snow total off the ECM, that also seems never to work out.  I cringe when I see folks like JB or even Maue post these sometimes. I admit it is entertaining, but hardly ever works out.   

I am not big on snow maps, but it does indicate that the majority of members are hinting at an event(or 2) with some frozen potential in the MA.

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Clown map Kuchera 6zGFS WB through next weekend.  Would be great if we reach the total snowfall most long range forecasters are predicting for DC by mid December.  I love the pattern.  If not this one,  I think it will be fun this winter.  Lots of potential.  We just need a little luck which no model or forecaster knows how to calculate.  That is one reason why this hobby is so fun.

CB6617D7-DD7C-420F-9FFB-3B2D4FFDBC18.png

That would be quite the front end thump. I like those types of storms. Fun tracking coming up!

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 I haven’t looked yet myself, but from reading elsewhere it sounds like the overnight ensembles (GEFS and Eps) were more bullish on the mid week anfrontal wave. 

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I am not really sure about what HM is focusing on in regards to the vulnerability of the vortex.  When I read Isotherm and a couple others whom really focus on the strat they paint a not so rosy picture. Little to be hopeful about for a while. Even the QBO is not going to be a player until maybe Feb. from some sources. 

Regardless of whether the QBO is following the linear progression of 2002 most closely, this fall does not have the feel of 2002 and certainly the Nino aspects are not the same.  Enter a recent warmer backdrop globally, that comparison losses value, as we are talking 17 years ago.  

Even though the GFS has short-term skill and is predicting wave 1 attacks on the vortex, the result seems to be more movement of the vortex, displacements if you may, versus a real weakening trend versus what was happening, or starting to happen last year at this time, as Simon mentioned that this morning.  This development more closely matches what Isotherm was looking for I believe for the mid month period.  

 

 

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 I haven’t looked yet myself, but from reading elsewhere it sounds like the overnight ensembles (GEFS and Eps) were more bullish on the mid week anfrontal wave. 

1576065600-7UIOzPO3JG0.png

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Noticed some subtle but important changes in the GEFS mean irt the day 10ish storm evolution at 500mb. Figured maybe they were worth noting. Still progressive look in the N Atl but there is slightly more ridging ahead of the storm but more importantly imo is the separation between the stj disturbance and the NS/PV. That look of less phasing and more sliding is something that favors more white and less wet for you guys. So many options but looks like with this setup we either root for a heavy thump with the inevitable changeover and phase to the West OR root for all white but maybe sacrificing totals as it moves/'slides' quickly.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh240_trend.gif

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Just now, Scraff said:

The “cold enough” is close by, but can it time up right for white vs wet? 

The general idea is there. It absolutely will come down to timing, and as we know, odds are better these things don't work out many more times than they do.

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The general idea is there. It absolutely will come down to timing, and as we know, odds are better these things don't work out many more times than they do.

How many members have this trailing wave irt Dec 11? I see the GGEM is still on board? Just curious what the spread looks like and if we are seeing any increases in the tendency for this development. As you said, these have more a tendency to fail. A progressive Atl flow doesnt help matters much.

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The same old story with Decembers and the NAO. 

Seems no break in this pattern. According to bluewave this goes back to 2013.   (see below ) 

I know there was talk of a wave break and possible interval of a -NAO during mid-month, but I don't see it.  

Those calling for a -NAO in December of any magnitude might need to reconsider. ( The caveat is no one really can be confident in the outcomes of the NAO far into the future so, my comment is  geared to the next couple of weeks ) 

Bringing up the common seasonal idea is that the most robust - NAO is in Feb and the most robust -EPO is in Jan.

However, starting to wonder  whether HL blocking shows up eventually,  and whether we get a -AO averaged winter. Reading some folks whom tie in the tropics with the HL, they state tropical forcing including AAM and GLAAM are lacking in terms of promoting the  mechanisms needed  to achieve  durable HL blocking, 

They also state HL blocking precursors will be fading starting now and may last for a while. An additional concern is the warming in the Eastern ENSO region. 

So make of that as you may, it appears as others have stated, a high probability of not knowing what is going to happen along with a roller coaster of temps here in the East in the coming three weeks.  

 

273A1AA2-E410-4045-A86E-D133FB86D64E.png.de9f7a39673d5840110b221c8996411b.png

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Euro type solution is plausible. As leads shorten the two terms we want to avoid are "amplified" and "slower". The workable window is short. Quick and sheared will get the job done much easier than amplified and slow. I don't see our chances as any better or worse after the overnight runs. 0z Euro/EPS is in the slow/amplified camp but plenty of time for things to change. And they will every 6 hours. 

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I'd like to see ops converge on a deep CAD solution by D5. Cold supply on these types of setups is known to back off as leads shorten. We want NC/SC to be very worried about their electricity by the time we get to D5 or less. 

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Can anyone confirm these maps were just released ?  The Euro Seasonal .

Seems new to me,  and they look sort of blah with a 2 meter temp signal indicating ridging too far off the West Coast and a slight signal for a SE ridge. 

Bottom row indicates active storms and precip, but maybe on the rainy solutions along the East Coast ?  Same issue as last year possibly with a lack of HL blocking,  as I already mentioned earlier today.    Looking at this output form the Euro seems it would be similar to last year in terms of the best winter target zone, the upper Midwest and Northern Plains.   

Can the Euro seasonal be wrong, of course, but balancing things out this continues the theme of high uncertainty regarding the winter. I mean last winter's seasonal from the Euro  were so so bullish for snow and cold and then looked what happened. I continue to balance expectations.  

12-5-19 Long-range: Latest thoughts into mid-Dec + sharing latest Euro monthly data/analysis for winter as a whole. K.

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd like to see ops converge on a deep CAD solution by D5. Cold supply on these types of setups is known to back off as leads shorten. We want NC/SC to be very worried about their electricity by the time we get to D5 or less. 

I agree with this wrt the cold “retreating “ but also the actual ground temp where the cold remains is often over done meaning it gets modeled too warm and warming too fast at longer ranges.

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