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PivotPoint

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Everything posted by PivotPoint

  1. Lol. Coming from ravensrule.. talk about a pot
  2. I have never moved a post (don’t have the capability). So your reference makes no sense lol.. confused face
  3. Already moved? Why don’t you move your banter???
  4. Looking at the latest nams tonight I see dc region getting another 2-3” from this tomorrow. 700mb has improved and the easterlies tomorrow are now more on par with how we receive our ccb snows from a pivoting lp. There’s also good water vapor transport and ample moisture to our west and nw, suggesting when the ccb consolidates we could be on the tail end of banding that sits for awhile
  5. It’s funny you say this, I actually felt very similar 4-5 days ago. You articulate one of my concerns very well — which was the typical Jackpot spots were underperforming and that the variance between model runs wasn’t waffling in a way that screamed dc-nova-md banding. I personally thought the manner in which the transfer happens and the low positioned itself seemed to lend itself to later (hence more NW) development and the ccb would be to our NW/NE. However, it’s touch and go around these parts now. If you naysay snow too much around here you get axed. Is what it is. But I like the ridge building my out west through the period and recycling of some of our blocking to the north. Our cold source is much better than 4-6 weeks ago. I say we definitely see some good model runs coming in the intermediate, perhaps
  6. Well at least we have history on our side, in that the when the nam is solo it usually flips. I like at @Bob Chill comment on the transfer possibly being an issue for meso’s to handle such a complicated transfer. Either before or after that is good for frontogenisis and banding, but the middle of this process sometimes leaves them bewildered. I mean, one meso (rgem) has 30+” and the other has 11”, lol. Someone’s not right
  7. Hello 2-3” per hour rates. Hope you guys get crushed. Good to see chill. He’s the man @bobchill
  8. It’s also the trough taking its sweet time to tilt negative. If it ticks earlier or quicker the best lift will reorganize a little father SW and we’re in business on the tail end of the CCB. Unfortunately (like many times) just north of Baltimore and and Phillies area seem to be the sweet spot for deepening and cyclogenisis. I was also a little disappointed over past 2 days on the WAA thump. Those can really deliver here and can hold on sometimes longer than anticipated. That’s not as robust as it was 48 hours ago. For me though.. I’m all good. Sitting on plane at the moment in bound to Jackson Hole. It always snows back in dc when I leave during the winter. 09/10 was a direct result of my 6 week absence. So you’re welcome
  9. That’s a great mean this far out. Need some consistency over next two days but having euro woofing for us is no small feat!
  10. I think some possible good news rolling forward is the cross polar flow I’m seeing on the mid-long range gfs. Our blocking breaks down a bit and trough drops in out west. However, I look at the timing of a lack of Greenland blocking coinciding with a -PNA as possibly a good thing. If we can indeed recycle a block, it’s just a matter of time before we get a transient +PNA. With a colder source region and (hopefully) higher heights in the NAO domain, with shorter wave lengths approaching maybe we get the SS to become more active. I’m liking finally getting cold on this side of the northern hemisphere as we approach February and March which can be dynamic and moist.
  11. Yea, I agree but it’s still discouraging. I mean, yes the ridge axis out west isn’t ideal and yes, there’s some interaction with the departing storm (not ideal). But I feel like we had enough ingredients that a moderate event was possible if we got the right track. That’s the annoying thing, it’s not an awful evolution but the result is a miss. I do think though that if the TPV isn’t phasing or helping to sharpen the back side of the trough, then it’s hurting.. not helping, imo
  12. My rationale two days was either a) storm is more progressive (weaker) and we Chet light snow but perhaps better temp profile (maybe) or b) it’s wound up and we get more dynamics and qpf. The reason we’re failing is confluence to the north created by TPV. I mentioned too much confluence and we get no development and southern track. Pretty sure that’s close to what’s happening. I dunno
  13. I think it’s probably ok for me to say it’s likely this will slide south of us. Two days ago when I said it I was chastised big time but unfortunately my fears have come true. I hate that euro is usually right, ugh
  14. Yea, but what I was getting at was why does the snow map on the 24hr WB look different than the snow map on TT? DC on WB is completely different. So it has to use a different algorithm See maps above yours
  15. Why is it that TT looks like this... WB is way better. Must be the algo it uses. Huh
  16. If this adjust back south I wouldn't be surprised, but if it also did its usual NW jog inside 72 that wouldn't surprise me either. I think this whole setup is mainly predicated off of what strength and timing of confluence we'll have as the SW digs. Too much confluence and track is south but temp layers are better. Too little and we get ptype issues. Very tedious setup I was thinking the same exact thing today. I guess its a combo of warming background state and the main driver this season (Nina) leading to PAC air intrusion to our cold source. That's my simpleton guess I suppose Doesn't that H5 track seem a little flat to you? I would think we'd want the base of that trough rounding a little quicker and titling negative a little earlier to allow for dynamics to take over given our moderate airmass. I know its a tight rope -- if it tilts negative too quickly we have track issues. But I feel like we need excellent dynamics to deal with our ptype issues. I fear if this is not geared up we all fail, vs. rain to dynamic rates with good back side ccb.
  17. Didn’t you just give me flack for saying this, like, 6 hours ago lol.. come on man
  18. No worries -- and I appreciate you saying that. I consider you one of the best (if not the best) poster on here so I was a little like "???". But it's all good. Oh, and gfs looks much better with a little better heights for our ridge out west and better high position/strength -- does wonders for our storm chances. Here's hoping that my southern track idea is crap, and well get hammered with 12+ and rates -- I love me some good rates.
  19. I mean, go ahead. Not sure what you're referring too? I have woofed for a good period twice and been a naysayer for three individual threats that didn't materialize. In truth, I think I've done pretty well this winter. I try not to weenie-out like many in here. Sorry about that
  20. Not sure what you problem is, however, having a high or not having a isn't a binary choice -- as you know. Its not that I prefer to have a high or know high. I just think the location and strengthing in its intensity and placement hurts the amplification. Sorry, I'm not wish casting -- I know that's what gets rewarded in here.
  21. This one is going south. 1045 banana high strengthening with each op run. The ensembles look ok but still mostly signal northern va/md as the top of the precip shield. The trend this winter has also been, imo, for waves to trend a little weaker than modeled in 5-7 day time frame. This one will unfortunately probably do the same and with little amplification and a strong wrap around high to our north... this ain’t the one
  22. Yea, I'm in the Atlantic forum and it sucks. I follow this forum because I ski in Vermont -- so I follow PF and others reports in the NNE winter thread. The mods in the mid-atlantic sub are so high strung. If you even barely whisper something the don't like you get points or something to your username. It's over the top. The new England forum has always been (for years) way better and also a place where you can go a little off topic, and it's funny to read sometimes. Like I think Damage of Tolland is hilarious. He's the new England "Ji"
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