PivotPoint

Honestly, if we can ditch any Aleutian low and get ridging up around AK, continue a -AO regime with even a neutral to slightly negative NAO... that’s a good look for us. The southern jet is active. I’m not quite sure why that is. My understanding is La Niña doesn’t feature the southern stream but I feel like this weak Nina to neutral ENSO state has kept the juice flowing. I like the period after the big (potential) cold period right after Xmas. Dive that AO down and have the NAO switch directions heading up. Good signal for a Miller b that can toe the line as NAO relaxes a bit. NAO hanging around neutral isn’t a horrible look for us as long as AO goes negative and PNA isn’t a rager. One thing I’ve learned in the mid-Atlantic... a -AO is almost better then a -NAO because when the NAO goes real negative we get suppression. And NC wins. And that sucks

That’s a pretty good signal for winter weather on the EC

Look at Seven Springs. Their residuals aren’t bad and it’s conveniently close to I-70.

@ravensrule agrees. He’s just being a Debbie downer

The whole event is over in a few hours

By the time the mid-levels return to snow sounding, all the forcing will be to our N/NE And we’ll be left with light snow and quick drying layers. Those from Winchester on wmeast are mostly done. Winchester might pull 1-2 more inches but lessburg on East is mostly snow tv wth any backside moisture that falls as snow

People expecting an additional 3-4” from the pivot are overly optimistic. Ain’t happening.

Lol @ravensrule you’re a funny guy

Lol, I was trying to be funny. I’m not always good at ok!? You guys are cute, fine Back from Leesburg. Poop rain in Arlington, 33

We’re gonna get dry slotted in nova for a bit

Congrats man. I think you’re primed. Here’s hoping you get over 12” brother!

Sitting at king st oyster. Was super heaving 10 mins ago. Hiked up raven rock trail an hour ago, and it was pouring snow up there. Almost 4” on the ground at 1000”

Euro has better totals out your way. Gfs hasn’t had anywhere close to 18” in multiple runs. Given the warm air push and soundings I’ve been looking at all night, don’t see how you make it past 12”. I’d say 8-12” but either way it’s going to be a good event for you. Enjoy natures best show on earth

Good luck! Don’t forget the yard stick

No need for anyone to look at the icon, btw

Just follow the neon glow

Thanks. Is that evident by the dew point crossing over there?

Can @psuhoffman explain this sounding. This is the back edge. Do we lose lift here? Looks like there’s no snow growth...

Yea, I really hope so for you guys out there. But here’s a sounding from one of your “heavy bands” on the 3k. Dgz not where you want it for heavy snow. Looks like probably warm layer there somewhere. On the run it shows heavy snow. So I’d expect at least 3-4 hours of mix. Still, I think you guys pull 8-12. (Hoping more)

Careful with that 10:1, she’ll seduce you..

Looks about right. I wouldn’t change anything. Nice work

Yea, it’s not usually a big deal out your way. 2-4 hours of mix won’t ruin it for you. Dc on the other hand, 2-4 of mix might be all of our frozen lol. I got to look for properties in Leesburg

Back side love (best kind)

Maybe just slightly better track. But makes no difference . Thermals are still shot out this way. You’re ok but prob pouring mix at some point

0z 18z