PivotPoint

Stinks because there is decent slug of cold air to the nw. If this had developed a little more we could of tapped that. The progressive nature though is not going to allow for heights to crash after the deluge of low level warm air advection. So close

Pummeled a strong word for FFX in that image. We should save that for actually pummelings, yes

DC will prob be all but out of the snow by 6z tomorrow. Is what it is. Hopefully points NW can score

The only times I have found the nam useful at range is to confirm trends 1-2 runs after the Global’s spin them. Nam 48+ is not a great mode and pinning down main features like the Globals are. Now I have seen the nam not follow a trend for 2-3 runs in a row after globals suggested it. And nam has turned out to be right here and there last I remember was 2017 but can’t recall the event. Anyhow, nam has played its part perfectly. It’s confirming globals. Just as always, is one to two sets behind.

Pretty good imo. One exception is I think it's a little light for Leesburg, Middleburg, etc. That zone I still think verifies 10-12". DC is probably accurate, unfortunately.

Negative. The whole storm was a deform band at one point lol

Good to see you on here. I use to creep all the time in the Northern NE Winter thread. Always enjoyed reading your stuff. My avatar pic is side-country at Stowe. Sad that I'm not allowed to up to VT this year.

Doesn't look like we get CCB'd down this way but any shift at all (like 10-20 miles even) SE with LP track and things get exponentially better fo 95.

Funny you say that... Think DT was looking into the possible flip in the ENSO state that might happen during winter. Basically flipping from low Nina to neutral. Perhaps if that is taking place and we finally get some cyclical blocking periods this winter... We can actually have a winter that has threats throughout. Not just one period of 2-3 weeks, which stinks. Great to see AO continue to prog negative. EPO joining the party will help with our ridging out west.

Looking at some more specifics... I see one of the issues for us is the west coast ridge is getting squeezed by the incoming coast storm in Washington st/BC. It's hurting us because it adds a "pusher" up stream which affects us down stream and doesn't allow for our storm to have early development and close that H5 off like a 100 miles earlier. If that storm out west could slow down significantly or come in at a higher latitude, it bodes better for us imo with earlier development.

I agree. I feel like QPF will not be a factor this go around. Still see the 1.5"+ up and down shen valley. My wag is that the lp placement is too tucked with some of these latest runs. The speed of the system seems to be increasing each model run. I think best case for dc -- 20 miles west, will be the low placement staying a little further east and cold air hanging as long as possible. My initial call from 4 days ago still stands 2-6 dc area, Leesburg 6-12, Winchester to the mountains 12+. Hard to beat climo around here.

What are you talking about. A) not a mauling for most the sub forum, b) cuts total from previous run significantly. Honestly, close to banter man

Unfortunately, there’s some issue with layers and surface 33-35 you can all but cut that in half, if not more. Not a great run. Loss the robust ccb look it was advertising but we all knew that was overdone. Key is that general track and synoptics hold course. It’s been said but HUGE euro run tonight, lol

That’s my b. I thought I selected smiley face. Internet mishap

HOLY GEFS. There are some bigggg hits in there. P25 and I’ll never be snarky to mappy ever again. Pinky swear

Watching the eagles game so focus is elsewhere. But SOLID gfs run. Hoping this holds! Gfs has been pretty steady along with the euro. Not trending badly at the moment

I was kidding with you a bit too! Hence the smiley face. Truthfully. I like you Mappy. You’re cool

Yea if you re-read I didn’t actually ask where he is. Just said I hadn’t heard. But yea the other two responses are on the thread. Thanks for updating with the non-update

@psuhoffman is vital to this community and should have free reign to dissect, interpret, inpart his knowledge. I’ve learn like 70% of what I know by reading his stuff over past 6-7 years. The remainder is made up of @Bob Chill which I still haven’t gotten a whereabouts for him. Hope he’s ok. He’s awesome too. Basically only difference between gfs ens and ec ens is like 30-40 miles more south for gfs. Actually pretty impressive models are that close multiple days out. Shows how far weather modeling has come. Process of elimination. The dc hits are disappearing. Becoming clearer for dc proper, unfortunately

Oh lol. My bad... I was “excited” too. Pants party

That’s a banding signature. eta: ninjad

I’m always untrusting I’d wrap around ccb. Feel like this is very easy for models to over do at range. We would need to explain why this either a) slows down and deepens quickly, or why ccb looks so good on just gfs. I wouldnt trust wrap around unless I see some meals closer to game time.

Nam liking the monday deal a bit more

Oh lol, I thought the purple was -12 and the red -18. Haha, just looked purple is zero! Yea, I see now... I was so confused why it looked like a decent vertical field for upward motion between the two temp layers. But the bottom layer is actually zero degrees. Thanks

Hey MN- Ideally, you want the purple and red line on this frame to be 850 to like 725, respectively, for optimal dendrite growth?