PivotPoint

It’s still going!! “And.. the Weenie Run of the Year Award goes to... you got it folks, the NAM!!”

31.2/14 Clarendon (Arlington) Surprised we haven’t been upped to a warning. Oh well, here we go!!

^ Wow. Unbelievable. Really Congrats. Remember this cause we sure will

I mentioned this point a couple days ago and I agree. The northern confluence was well modeled. In conjunction with a well defined southern sw it’s actually a good combo for long/med lead model accuracy. To me, this is a case of the players on the field being “head over heels” better than the others player. Hence, making it easier for the models give us a predictable and REPEATABLE output. All an opinion (of course) but observation wise, is the way I see it.

Those words are synonymous brother lol

You can use both. Obviously change in snow depth is more conservative but you can use snowfall to measure accumulation too

You’re right it is. Just searching for any trend. But yea a litt close in

I’m not even gonna say it seriously though, EPS is soon right??

That’s not as much as I was expecting but good to see nonetheless come on king euro

Holy bump on the ukmet If the cmc wins the day with a score for dc I’ll be enternally grateful. Albeit over done a couple days ago it has consistently said at least something for dc (minus 2-3 runs?) Ancecdotal I think a north shift is a typical trend we see with the juicy stj sw. Also I felt since 5 days ago that the confluence being molded was probably at the very least “slightly” over done. Hopefully my pure guess was right

Yea, I agree too. I find it pretty interesting too that the GFS (and most globals) in general seem to do better in the mid/long range when the northern features (strong NAO, AO, etc) are on one side of the bell curve or the other. It makes sense: the more stable the input the more repeatable the output. But what’s interesting is the northern component to the consistency. In this case, my opinion is the only mechanisms of increase for northward movement would be driven by a)not currently modeled relaxation in confluence, b) well timed piece of energy embedded in northern flow exiting at a favorable moment which could lift the barolocnic zone between the approaching SW and NS (which in essence is a relaxation in confluence), c)not currently modeled amplification of the SW which of course, has a cap to how much it can deepen. I give dc metro a 20% chance of dusting-1” which would be pretty sweet!

I’m actually fairly impressed with the GFS for this storm. Going back over it’s past six runs it’s been pretty consistent while others have caught on last 3-4. although euro has been consistently south too for most part since two days ago. someone correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t see the NS features changing much each run so I’m thinking only way dc metro scores anything is the SW has to amplify quickly and broaden its precicp shield. Which is a tall order with all that confluence

Its amazing how close this is to our ideal spot. Just a couple tweaks