PivotPoint

ah, thank you

Got it. Yes, that makes sense.. good point. And the mjo has seemed to be tough to predict this year and each model has handled it very differently. I saw the recent gfs (I believe) push us into a more favorable phase (7?). My knowledge base ends at the definition of mjo and to a much lesser extent do I know how to integrate its content.

Sorry, I don't follow. I don't know what RMMs means so

Some thoughts: Seeing that we'll have some cold anomalies hanging around here the next 6-10 days and potential "bootleg blocking" I think our best chance for accumulating snow in dc/metro is a redeveloping clipper. When looking at the gefs means our best chance at 500mb (Imo) is a vort that swings down on the NS and then (times) hits a bootleg block. The +pna will add favorability to this idea considering the ridge is riding high all the way to almost Alaska for crying out loud. Additionally, if a vort can dig hard enough in the NS and then have just a slight and brief relaxation in the pna, then we might be able to get that thing to turn the coast and get a 3-6" deal. The most logical outcome though, however, is it turns too early and rides the gradient that might be in the wrong place (if the WAR is still pushing back). Just an idea, but to summarize 1) cold air, 2) +pna 3) NS vort digs, 4) bootleg block = 3-6" The thing is we probably wouldn't see the details of this scenario till like 72-112 hours out. If that idea does even exist Wouldn't that be nice

Louisiana gets more snow than us, lol

The GEFS shows a fairly zonal flow by my estimates. Not a PAC puke by any means but quick flow. Not a lot of time for anything to amplify. I guess beggars can't be choosers

I agree with this anecdotal point. Also, observationally my thoughts are that one main driver (EPO, PNA, NAO, War, Etc) tends to dominate (for good or bad) a seasonal pattern for the EC. The WAR seems to be ours this winter and it's not a favorable one to have. We'll probably look back in April and all be like "yup, that WAR did us in". Who knows though

That's the goal I thought the WAR had relaxed on the means starting mid-jan till basically now (or a couple days ago). Looks likes the ridge on the GEFS keeps getting pumped up in the medium range. I could be wrong on that

To me the latest ensemble runs keep showing the WAR as a consistent feature which was not there 5-7 days ago. Instead those heights were where we wanted them in the nao domain. The WAR is creating a gradient right along the coast that is forcing our storm track to be razor thin. This is part of the reason why we go from cold dry, to warm wet, back to cold dry. Until we see that ridge rotate into the nao space or it at least relax and the +pna build with some timed blocking (real blocking doesn’t exist anymore ugh) then I see any real storm chances at a minimum. We’d need a timed front with moisture and at least a pseudo block to score otherwise imo. Not looking ideal attm

Yea, no idea what he's talking about. 12z eps looked like its close to splitting flow again, east-based blocking, etc. Not horrible at all

Any thoughts on the GFS looking like its losing the -NAO... the last three runs its seemed to have wavered and backed off quite a bit moving into the ned of Jan. The GEFS 6z doesn't seem all that enthused either although it does maintain some blocking up there, but also keeps breaking down the +PNA out west. It's looking like wet and warm followed by cold and dry as the lower mean heights seem to be passing to our west then cold fronts crash through Not exactly what we want but also not a complete mess like a raging SE ridge or something of that nature

I don’t have access to euro maps but what’s the surface look like here... I’m sure it’s been discussed so excuse my ignorance Eta: never mind I went back and found the disco on it. 174hrs out and icon/gfs/ euro have a gulf low. Things could be worse

100% agree. All models I’ve seen have at worst a transient trough and most keep reloading higher heights near or in the NAO domain. If we can just hang on for a bit my hunch is we get that split flow to come back at some point and then Ji is in business

I agree. I learned a couple years back that talking long range is like tossing a dart blindfolded... after being spun around 6 times... drunk. You’ll get about the same accuracy as the big boy predictions I don’t think we get shut out next two weeks but the Pac jet gearing back up could spell trouble if the NAO flips neutral to positive Im hoping for some ridging to get back in the right spot out west then we can use a little luck with a decent Atlantic and score something big, small, either is fine by me

Minus what looks like a fairly fast flow from the PAC, there’s some miller b potential there as it looks like we have a gradient that goes right above us, correct? West to east storm track

Lol Got all our bases covered on that one

Well that’s not half bad I guess

Seeing some returns around Winchester that are rotating northeast. Any of that reaching the ground? My location is probably out but someone in Md might see some flurries

You'll be alright is my hunch. But worse comes to worse drive the 2 hours and you're at Stowe. They'll be all snow unless this thing pulls a 180*

Things look pretty good today. Heopefully holds the line over next 3-5 days then I think we start digging into some real chances. Interesting note about the next week (Thursday-Friday deal) 12z gfs is probably wrong about multiple waves riding the boundary — will most likely consolidate and form one wave for better or worse. But if we were to receive to independent bouts of snow from the same front and it again lasted more than 30hrs, it would be (by my estimation) the first time in my 34 years I’ve seen two 30+ hour continuous events for the same winter in my life time in NoVA. Please correct me if I’m wrong Looking forward to good times next 3-4 weeks

might not even then

HRRR is improving... ever so slightly. Looks like a light coating now. Was showing nothing on all previous runs

Not the juiciest of systems but a decent slug of moisture. Maybe an 1" in NoVA?

Cool Seeing some returns to our southwest around harrisonburg. Maybe get some flurries in here before the rush

We doing obs in here for today's thing?