PivotPoint

0z shift back south with heavier snow 12z comparison

I like where your head is at. Gotta get the next couple runs to pull her back south. Stop the mid level warm air push. Make Big Snow Storms Great Again!

You’re right. I still think it shows trend wise that the big slug of qpf distribution is not still jogging north. Gotta stop the trend

18z NAM holds serve. Maybe slight tick south with best qpf from prior run

The trend will reverse slightly and jay and Stowe will be back in the 15+ range. Models do this a lot with wound up systems right as they develop. I bet the next couple of runs tic it back down another 50-75 miles. Track adjust slightly south

The globals are almost in lock-step. GFS just ran and its easily 12+ Euro is 12+ Stowe-Jay peak is gonna get crushed tomorrow. Easily 15+ total. It's locked.

I VERY much care.. and will be visiting the land of PF this weekend. Driving up from DC starting 6:30pm Thursday night after work. Thinking first wave is starting to clear out by then. Looking at timing, hoping to be past Boston by midnight-ish. Can’t tell exactly but looks like my biggest trouble will be once turning to snow Connecticut rt 91 heading into VT. Dont hate.. par tic i PATE!! Everyone in the forum should come to Stowe. Screw work. Go Euro- ukie combo

Warmth never has a problem trending I do like this vort though. The little vort that could

PP storm gaining traction...

I’m a skier so I’ve been watching 40north and obviously they have a good chance at multiple events in he next two weeks. They actually do well with a neutral or slightly positive nao. We get screwed unfortunately. Checkout Burlington. It’s a cool spot. PF (powderfreak)in the New England forum works at Stowe and can give good recommendations on things to do if you don’t ski. Our chances improve if we get a modest ridge to develop over Idaho and a neutral Atlantic. I’m done speculating though. I’ll believe it when we’re within 3-4 days

Lol. I’m grasping at straws... I know

Well done Ji lol

That’s my wave. The PP storm

Yea, you’re right. And I don’t expect this to come to fruition. But I, like you, think the placement at 500mb looks like a great spot if something were to have enough space and strength to dig.

I’ve been watching this time frame for a little while. We get this pseudo ridging in the middle of the country right as a NS vort is rounding the base of the trough sliding east. Ive seen these small clippers that redevelop before. They usually redevelop off the EC too late for us due to the ridge axis and progressive nature of our troughs, but sometimes they slow down enough if the trough can dig a little deeper and upstream flow is slowed down with 50/50 of exiting coastal (storm before the storm) Something to keep an eye on for a 1-4” deal. Would sure brighten the mood

Aspen is cool. Go a bunch myself. Two words: Apres Ski...

I agree. I don’t care it’s op at range the point is there were a few good runs that gave us a glimmer now it’s a desert waste land of bad runs. And it makes sense given pna, epo, ao, nao, etc. None of which are sided in our favor or progged to be at least in next 10 days It’s definitely unnatural influence, at least to a degree. The degree being the question. But I will say that 24hr/365 days a year of pumping green house gasses by multiple industrialized nations... it doesn’t take more than 2nd grade logic to understand that this action cannot go on in perpetuity with ZERO consequences. Lol, I mean... come on. The great debate (if there even is one any longer) ends with a simple truth... there is no “free lunch” that exists in our physical universe. If we want to pump co2 from sun up to sun down across the entire planet , the earth will eventually respond, in kind (of some form). End soap box (sorry)

psu - what are you at on the season out of curiosity? I’m like .5 Yea man. It’s been brutal. Telleconnections at one point early on looked encouraging... cfs and some of the bigger Mets were calling for a backloaded winter with feb having a good year potentially. All looks like smoke and mirrors now. However I will say thy I think the no snow eventually turns in our favor in the sense that it actually becomes anomalous the longer it doesn’t snow. Eventually something breaks. Could be a March 93 for all we know but I agree for time being... not a lot of effort warranted Yea, that’s a real good like actually. Trough at a perfect angle too

Very doomsday-esque, and well explained. MJO rotation through all the phases will take way too long. SE ridge is rearing its ugly head. If we finish with <1” at dca it will go down as a major ratter. Tough pill to swallow considering how long we have to wait till December 2020. Lol, I think we’ve seen every permutation of orange and blue this winter EXECPT the one combination that would produce snow. It’s like it’s trying NOT to snow. I blame all of the negativity on this board. The snow can hear us people!

Yea, it’s not helping there that’s for sho

Very true. That’s the tough part dealing with smoothed averages, it’s only really useful to see (generally) if we MIGHT be on the right side of things. Even then it’s a total guessing game lol. This is a frame from 0z Euro. Not a horrible overall setup. A couple things break our way and this looks even better

SE ridge my be back. Been seeing hints of it last few model cycles on GFS and euro has more pronounced boundary setting by up to our west then the GFS...Not a good look attm

Question IO interference has a confounding effect along with PNA state that effects the oscillatory nature of NAO - i.e. upper-level velocity patterns (200-hPa) wind anomalies at mid-latitudes (mjo phase 2, Indian Ocean) drive jet stream patterns at our latitude ? Then -PNA mean leads to -AO mean, which typically is found to correlate with NAO state as well... yes? Thanks

Lol. “Justttttttt a bit outside”

Start a thread. We need some good juju. I think you’ve got it