PivotPoint

Can someone post the 12z euro snow map please. Don’t have access attm and would like to compare to gfs see how much spread we need to cover over next couple model runs.. Thanks in advance

And you’re annoying. Not false!

Hrrr continues to look really bad. Might hit the cancel button on this one. I highly doubt Arlington sees much more than a dusting-.5” Heres hoping for Sunday night-Monday storm ETA: this thing is absolutely racinggg out of here too. Will be over by 5/6am

E7 right at the BM. Oooo how Id like

One thing to keep in mind is that moderate sleet is actually pretty effective at cooling ground that is marginally above freezing. Better job than snow does. So having that before it starts snowing could help surfaces cave a little quicker. Just trying to find the silver lining

Makes sense. That’s the money spot attm. Lucky dog

It’s be nice to see the northern extent of the precip shield up in pa start to get flattened a bit. A little confluence would go a long way right now to compress this thing down and get these returns moving west to east and filter in a little more cold. Not much right now

Where you located again? That band in Winchester looks tasty assuming it’s. It a blob of sleet

Oh, yea. 100% ETA: Heard a pinger

This thing is racing NNW. Looks like dc hugs the snow line. I’m liking md for some decent 3-4” spots. Here in Arlington I’m not seeing more than an inch. Hrrr looks terrible. Not like that means anything though

Gfs looks good. This is snow depth change which is more conservative. Take half that for algorithm purposes and it’s still around 4” of sno for dc. That’s a good solid thump. Don’t like how it’s during the day but if rates are good the. It won’t matter

Unfortunately with no NAO help and a -PNA, the majority of the time that signals a better snow chance for New England. Ive actually read them talking about how too strong a negative NAO is not great in their neck of the woods. Being the skier that I am I don’t hate that Vermont looks to be bulls eyed next two weeks but I would be pretty disappointed if not one of these waves break in our favor for mby. I do like the potential for weds-thurs next week for a thump with decent CAD. But that could very quickly turn rain if the shortwave digs too hard considering there’s no back side blocking in the flow with such a negative pna.

Hope it holds together. Just light, random fat flakes here. No forcing has really come through yet. Need to get some rates because based on radar we have some moderate returns over McLean right now. If models were accurately counting that precipitation then we are losing our QPF attm with nothing really coming down.

I love how LWX trimmed down their totals. And the 1/10 chance max is 3” dc. Even though I think 3” is more than what we’ll receive I don’t understand why they pair down these maps when current guidance is trending more in favor than it did when they had more robust maps up. Always seems backwards to me when they post revised maps that don’t fit the current trends.

Got it. Thanks The trough does a pretty interesting trajectory. Excited to see how it unfolds Based off guidance and optimism I still set the bar at a quick inch maybe 2" if we're lucky!

Ok, so maybe I’m not evaluating this properly here. You and @showmethesnow seem interested so now my interest is peaked lol Could either of you explain why this artic front is more unique and why there’s bigger potential then my untrained eye “isn’t” seeing. Thanks in advance

I would agree with you there. Definitely has been some amount of QPF on most all guidance. I guess I’m just pessimistic against anafronts lol

Not sure I see much excitement with this wave passage. Looks like all the rest to me. Looks great now. Not so much in 24-36 hours. The backside seems to be drying out quicker on the 18z gfs. Don’t see a trend on other guidance either that would make me think this is going to yield more than a dusting

Oh yea, totally agree that it’s usally a car topper at best. However, this anafront has been pretty consistently modeled with the low to our NW helping drag the frontal passage in our area as it passes through (like was mentioned yesterday) there’s enough time for the moisture to flow back over top the cold air. Point is it’s not the “typical” fast moving front we sometimes get that has no corresponding low to our NW creating that elongated/dragging that helps slow the passage just in time as it comes through our region. My opinion differs in that I do not think the front swings through in time even if we get a low to pop off the SE coast. And if it even does it’s a catch 22 — if the low to our NW gets out of the way and slows the front more to allow for development then it’s probably to warm. If it swings though and the NW low is too vigorous then it probably means a low that pops near us is OTS. All speculation. But I do see your point

Interesting point to this too is I’m not sure a southern system is our best option. Temps out in front of the frontal passage will be in the mid 40s. With the anafront idea we’d have a dynamic temp gradient working in our favor that produces a short but looks to be intense period of snow showers/squalls as the front swings through. This would probably yield as a couple inches if accurate. With a SS low development the cold air might not be in place yet because the front has not come through. Complex timing here but my gut tells me a southern wave might not have the cold quite there yet.

Got it. Thank you So if PNA ridge axis is in a more ideal spot then that in-turn promotes downstream troughing which can create wave breaks which can contribute to forcing that pumps heights into the NAO... I have that right? Thus, Atlantic ridge is a domino affect of upstream mechanics of PNA, which in large part, are Nina/nino driven during winter months. So since we've been in a weak Nino do we still expect Nino type results with the pna or the Nina-esque as you mentioned...

@Isotherm Interesting write up Iso and very informative on the pna. I relate it to the likened of baking a cake -- the pna are the ingredients and the nao the oven. Yes, you need the oven at the right temp to get a great cake but if you start with crappy ingredients (upstream pna) then how much does the temp (downstream blocking) really matter in the end. I know my analogy is an over simplification of the concept. Nevertheless, thanks for your insigh What's your opinion on how the western Atlantic ridge has fit into the overall EC track and if it really is a spoiler or just seems that way due to (at times) less than ideal placement? Thanks @psuhoffman Good stuff too. In your estimation where exactly do you want the tpv placement to be to allow the war progression into the nao space? Thanks

Sorry you’re right. I forgot 8 was better not 7. My bad

That’s very magnanimous of you. See, I personally think we have a charming back and forth but who knows. On to weather: Just saw the 12z eps and tbh I see some positives in there unfolding day 8-10 then moving forward (hopefully) evolving day 10-14. As I see it, there’s a decent +pna, neutral/slight negative epo and the atlantic ridge that seems to be retrograding northeast (maybe some into the nao space). If the upper level high situated above Alaska can keep rotating down through pna space then I think we can actually see some sort of split flow develop again as the western ridge gets pumped up. Big maybe but I can see it. Time that with some tropical forcing and a more conducive mjo phase 7 and maybe we can make this happen begining of February.

I thought it was kinda funny. I like the dichotomy, personally. People who take him seriously are missing out on the levity of his character. People like @mappy can exist to take every comment in the world too seriously but snow(pick a #) is just too much for people to handle. I think we got it backwards Go ahead and delete this mappy — wrote this one just for you