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PivotPoint

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About PivotPoint

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    IAD
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    Tysons Corner, Va
  • Interests
    430' asl

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  1. PivotPoint

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    You'll be alright is my hunch. But worse comes to worse drive the 2 hours and you're at Stowe. They'll be all snow unless this thing pulls a 180*
  2. PivotPoint

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    Things look pretty good today. Heopefully holds the line over next 3-5 days then I think we start digging into some real chances. Interesting note about the next week (Thursday-Friday deal) 12z gfs is probably wrong about multiple waves riding the boundary — will most likely consolidate and form one wave for better or worse. But if we were to receive to independent bouts of snow from the same front and it again lasted more than 30hrs, it would be (by my estimation) the first time in my 34 years I’ve seen two 30+ hour continuous events for the same winter in my life time in NoVA. Please correct me if I’m wrong Looking forward to good times next 3-4 weeks
  3. PivotPoint

    Light Snow Event - 1/17-1/18 Obs and Discussion

    HRRR is improving... ever so slightly. Looks like a light coating now. Was showing nothing on all previous runs
  4. PivotPoint

    Light Snow Event - 1/17-1/18 Obs and Discussion

    Not the juiciest of systems but a decent slug of moisture. Maybe an 1" in NoVA?
  5. PivotPoint

    Light Snow Event - 1/17-1/18 Obs and Discussion

    Cool Seeing some returns to our southwest around harrisonburg. Maybe get some flurries in here before the rush
  6. PivotPoint

    Light Snow Event - 1/17-1/18 Obs and Discussion

    We doing obs in here for today's thing?
  7. PivotPoint

    MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons

    The previous event is top 3 in my book for last 10 years. Just because it literally snowed Saturday, Sunday, Monday from the same storm. And Sunday afternoon for those who kept the faith were then rewarded when the radar lit back up and it just dumped for like 6 more hours. Awesome event
  8. PivotPoint

    MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons

    Yea, what is he seeing as more north. Came in slightly weaker which is probably good for us. Not great for NY/VT snows
  9. PivotPoint

    MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons

    It won't imo It's not great with handling these type of backend setups typically. A ) they rarely work out anyway B ) when they do, it's almost always now-cast scenario
  10. PivotPoint

    MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons

    Interesting enough my point and click on NWS has Sunday changing from rain to wintry mix. I guess they are putting some weight behind a quick flip at the end. We'll see how that plays out
  11. PivotPoint

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    We’ll probably lose the 84hr look but I do like idea of a more progressive SS that misses the timing with NS. Allows for a front end thump. I know the NAM lacks skill with the timing at longer leads but someone posted earlier that the euro has trended with a flatter and more northerly NS the last three runs in a row. There’s still time to believe in a front end thump for NoVA. And I believe the latest GEFS has the weekend low clusters a little south of the op too. But I could be mistaken, didn’t look
  12. PivotPoint

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    12z nam says it probably ain’t happening. Sped up and more interaction with NS. That was a quick glimmer. Was hoping to get to happy hour namming
  13. PivotPoint

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    Wow, that’s a huge compliment. I feel honored, no bs! I’ve read yours and psu’s and other really good posters on here for years. I started back in the Eastern weather forum days before the conversion. Never spoke cause I had no clue what to say. Everything I’ve learned I’ve picked up from you guys. I know my analysis needs work and is more remedial in nature then yours and the other experience Mets, etc. but it’s nice to know it’s come full circle. I appreciate that. Means a lot to just another winter weather weenie hoping for a little snow in his life
  14. PivotPoint

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    Looking at today’s runs for the ops and ensembles I know pessimism is certainly understandable but here’s my take moving through end of January through early February: The WAR seems to be progressing on models to the NAO domain and flipping it negative towards the end of these runs. Been pretty consistent on GFS and seems like it’s heading that way on the euro. Having the AO flip very negative gives us an opportunity when it starts to relax. Some of our bigger events tend to come on the tail ends of big telleconnection changes (NAO flip, or AO, etc) If we can maintain some semblance of a split flow and a decently active SS, I really think we can see the first or 2nd week in February pop. I know there’s a lot of unknowns in my hypothetical but I really like that the AO flips strong and the NAO seemlying is going to do the same. Get through the cold suppressive period for a short time and hopefully there’s a nice surprise at the end of the tunnel.
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