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    Tysons Corner, Va
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  1. +1 to this. Point I made earlier - if we can get PNA ridging with the right axis on the ridge (Idaho) then we can score. I’m confident we align a wave and have some of a cold source to tap, if we can get the PNA to go positive and oscillate in positive territory for a 10-14 day period. I think it’s a 20-30% chance it does that this winter. But still a possibility imo
  2. You’re right. I probably am too concentrated on the details. I will say it’s interesting to see at least some progressive ridging developing across the west coast. Still fighting circle of doom in Alaska. We need more stable ridge in the west coast to develop since we’re getting close to February and wave lengths will begin to change in a few short weeks.
  3. You make good points but you’re using bias confirmation (known gfs bias) to explain the more amped solution of the gfs vs cmc. In reality, it could be an over amplification or it could be picking up the time period dynamics more accurately. Time will tell. But I disagree that there is amazing agreement in the sense that, yes, the anomalies are similar in their relative positions but the strengths are fairly different (euro and cmc) vs gfs. You’ll probably end up being correct that the gfs has over amplified the shortwave, but we do not know that, and I would not automatically attribute it to a “known bias”. I think that is a bit premature to say, imo.
  4. I knew someone would chime in! It is different... And I’m not just talking about the surface. if you look at side by side comparison of 500mb heights for same time period GFS clearly builds stronger positive anomalies through Hudson’s Bay which provides much stronger blocking for our trough to turn negative. Id agree they’re not worlds a part in terms of 60s and sunny vs. 30s and rain, but they are still very different and shows a larger spread. I know 240hrs seems like an eternity but in age of 2020 and super computers I still find it amusing that the differences can be as large as they are... even for 240hrs.
  5. Geeze... that’s so awful for our best climo period. Hopefully mid February shows signs of life
  6. Which one is the chill storm by the way... 1/25, 1/30, or 2/1?
  7. Lol at how different the cmc is to the gfs same time period. cmc Gfs
  8. Very good explanation. And describes the reasoning behind why getting anything significant here for the next 10 days or more would be a big challenge. Let’s hope the AK vortex shuts down and ridging returns to west coast. We need the AO to be negative at some point if we’re going to score later in the season. Cold air has to rebuild back in central Canada.
  9. There are a few returns around Leesburg heading W NW. they might allow for a few more flurries for western counties
  10. Woof. That’s horrendous for mid-late January. One run but yikes. My WAG at the beginning my of the month is slowly turning sour. I really thought the west coast troughing would eventually retrograde as the West PAC ridge pushes into the higher latitudes. Hopefully disrupting that crappy zonal flow we’ve had a bunch. Just hasn’t happened and now with no -NAO help it’s hard to hold any cold air in place... the little bit that’s even around attm. We’ll score.....eventually.
  11. Pumping that ridge out west... if this happens and NAO space even gets modest blocking I think we score a fun one (6+) Is that a west-based NAO? It seems a little under the latitude for true -NAO... correct?
  12. The issue imo is still the west coast. No ridging per above, and you get this washed out trough on east coast with great low placement. We need that high shown here but with the PNA pumped up a bit. Atlantic has been fairly cooperative. Damn PAC and PNA have not.
  13. Not gonna happen. SE ridge pumping up out in front of the primary tracking north of us. 6z gfs says it’s all but over. Think this one is toast
  14. Strengthening Atlantic ridge + sharper trough = not gonna happen on this one. On a brighter note, we have a pattern change upon us once this crappy system clears through. Ridge building out west and shortwaves diving through the southern states for at least next 5-7 days after this weekend. I’ve thought for last two weeks that come end of January and beginning February we start to see real chances. I think it’s coming down the pipeline.