It is on track to go north of Ft. Myers. Port Charlotte gets the 12-16 ft surge. Tampa Bay gets the western eyewall with 150mph winds. Everything in between gets the eye. .
On current trajectory it would be more like Venice to Bradenton. Tampa Bay gets Western eye (which is bad with 155 mph winds) and Port Charlotte gets surge. .
At this angle of approach, Ft. Myers’s to Port Charlotte would get hammered with surge and Tampa Bay might get the western eye wall. Doesn’t look good for Tampa Bay.