Crazy4Wx

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Everything posted by Crazy4Wx

  1. Looks like San Juan is going to get in the eye.
  2. This may be a dumb question, but is there a reason why we don't launch a drone from the Hurricane Hunters inside the eye to provide real-time data?
  3. So if Maria hits Puerto Rico as a Cat 4 would that count as 3 Category 4 hits on the United States in one year?
  4. Then you need to brush up on your math. The first two time periods are 24 years..the third is 16 years.
  5. Never underestimate Irma's ability to straddle the coast so she can maximize her time over water...just seems to be her thing.
  6. Very true. How much surge do you think will roll into Tampa?
  7. Everyone was saying the same thing on Friday night as she looked like she was going to plow into Cuba. I believe she wil track right along the coast...but I guess we will find out in 30 mins
  8. I won't be surprised when Irma just rakes the west coast of Florida from Ft. Myers to Cedar Key. She did it to Cuba.
  9. NHC even says they are being conservative. We all know how these things go...if she gets a solid eye wall..she will bomb out, just like she did I approach to Cuba. If she doesn't she will be steady state.
  10. Eye fully intact on Cuban Radar. This has been modeled pretty well by HWRF and shows her deepening as soon as she clears the coast.
  11. Only about 1/3 of the eye has crossed...and still on NHC track even after that wobble WSW.
  12. Looking at Cuban radar is looks like she is turning NW. Right on NHC track. Man...what a forecast.
  13. Eye seems be shrinking a bit as it approaches Cuban coast...also looked like it took a wobble south of NHC track by a tiny bit.
  14. Majority of that guidance just scrapes the coast of Cuba...which won't weaken Irma much at all.
  15. The question isn't whether Irma comes onshore...but how far on shore. If the center stays just off shore and rides the coast then it will lose a little steam but not much, like the HWRF. If the whole eye goes inland then I would look to the HMON
  16. It is currently right on track for the forecast points. Half of that eye is going to come on shore as it makes the NW turn.
  17. HMON takes Irma inland of Cuba...will be interesting to see if that happens in the next 6 hours.
  18. My best friends buddy is in Key West and is planning on riding it out. He is a concrete "hurricane safe" hotel. I told him to plan for the worst night of his life and to make sure he wasn't on the ground floor.
  19. The HWRF doesn't have Irma hitting the coast of Cuba for another 9 hours...so maybe she slows down as she feels the ULL before she makes the turn? It looks like she rides the coast for another 18 hours.
  20. 18z HWRF have Irma just raking the northern Cuba coastline...never really fully crossing
  21. That is pretty incredible. That scene is coming to the keys if the latest intensity and tracks hold.
  22. According to this run Key West is either in the eye or eye wall for 6-8 hours. At 160 mph winds...I doubt many structures can survive that.