PivotPoint

And to be honest, I’m sure that I’m over thinking it this far out especially considering I’m talking about temps. Temps shouldn’t really be something discussed until models are in their deterministic range, however, I just wanted to point out that I think blocking needs to have cold below it to supply us with the ingredients we need. That’s all. Think that’s a fair observation!

I agree with that. However even if it doesn’t cut I still think we need help from some Ridging out west to allow for amplification and tapping whatever cold air there is for a SW

Science is about being oppositional. And I was just saying my thoughts, Yoda said”I have to find something wrong”. Did not start this one, as I typically get blamed for this stuff. Sheesh

The tweet you posted from Webb is fine and well, by he says “Cold? Sure.” Then shows a 10-15 day ensemble mean of 500mb that, yea, has a great west based huge NAO and slight ridging. It is a good look. But people underestimate the issues that we “DC” folk have with temps. PSU cited a the December storm as “see, it was almost cold enough and it was only mid December”. And it actually kind of proves my point. DC got nothing from that. And the reason was partly track but mostly mid-levels could hang on and we were flooded with WAA because our airmass wasn’t stout enough. Fast forward, Jan and Feb should fix that issue, right? I mean, another moth of cold building up would be enough to help a marginal setup, one would assume. I’m making the point that the cold is there like we would typically expect, and what looks like a great 500 could be great for Winchester on west, even with a great block and confluence to the north. We’lol have to wait and see but this isn’t a “he knows more, he’s a met, you be quiet” type deal. My issue with temps and what the block has not allowed to happen “building of substantially cold air” I view as a potential factor rolling through even a “good” upper air look.

Find something wrong with it? It’s not a tv show lol... there’s nothing “wrong with it”. It’s that the block, Yoda, is blocking “in” marginally cold air and a negative AO is only as useful as the arctic air the region draws from. I’m not saying it can’t snow or that it definitely won’t snow. I’m just not a cheerleader no matter the pattern. I’m saying that we need ridging upstream, plain and simple. Do we HAVE to have it to have snow, of course not. Flukey stuff happens all of the time. I’ve simply stated, however, that huge blocks do us little good if there is a trough out west with marginally cold air in Canada. Fix either of those issues and we we a totally different track and or temp profile. I mean, or you a fan of warm cutters? Because that is what “this” pattern is delivering, even with blocking.

Some points in there well taken but hasn’t the Northern PAC had a fairly stable trough through most the second half of dec? I see a low in gulf of AK and ridging so far west it’s on the the other side of the PAC. And to be clear, I’m not asking for a a full alt PNA ridge from the gulf of AK to San Diego, but yes I think that removing the huge + anomaly around Greenland could have an effect on draining some of that cold air out of East Asia. Now I’ll admit that I’m not an expert to be able to explain that’s mechanism. But I will say that having a trough out west with a mediocre cold source for us and cold air locked up in Asia is NOT what we want. I see a huge anomaly over Greenland and can’t help but think that this is part of the atmospheric mechanism that is to not allowing cold to travel to our part of the hemisphere. I’m sure some of my rationale is flawed but I have a hunch that there’s part of it that makes sense.

Yea, but we do. The Pacific/North American oscillation is simply a phase that refers to relative amplitude. The PNA (itself) is not a mechanism. It’s a result of a atmospheric mechanism, specifically phase pressure differences over the central Pacific Ocean and Rossby Wave Effect. So yea, we need PAC help to get a ridge out west

I’d agree with that last sentence and was kind of my whole point. And I’ve also said that now for over two weeks so it’s not like I’m just jumping on the negative train here. The PAC needs to reshuffle for our chances to improve. I know that’s kind of simpleton logic, but honestly I think things get too tech-y in here sometimes when the current answer (and future improvement) is “sometimes” a little more straightforward. We need our cold source to improve. We need pacific help and some semblance of a mean ridge out west. Then we have a chance that is higher than unicorns and snowmen “it might snow” in this crappy pattern, lol

I don’t see how my comment of our current base state is vodooo outcomes. I actually think quite the opposite, I believe my point is that I’m not wishcasting for snow but rather looking at where we currently stand and how we logically roll forward. And with respect to the EAMT events: sure if we get recycling of AN heights that trigger a +EAMT that would bode well down the line for colder anomalies up north... but that’s pretty close to actual vodooo whether that comes to fruition, so

Guys and girls, we can get the 500mb to look good all day long... but the surface temps are going to destroy our frozen. Watch: PSU will be saying two weeks from now “the pattern progress the way we wanted it but we couldn’t overcome the AN temp anomalies and our source region”. Something like: “perfect track, bad temps”. I get that that the AK low may retro and we pop a PNA and get our west based block. But we have NO COLD AIR! At least by the time it reaches us from its Luke-cold source region. We need that blocking to disappear and build cold, then recycle 3-4 weeks from low and and enjoy a 2-3 week period of winter. Not being a downer, hope I’m wrong but the AN surface temps are going to be a real issue here folks

How is a west based NAO block going to help if our source is warm “relatively”, and the PAC doesn’t improve which is necessary to shut off the flow of maritime air cross the continent. No cross polar flow and a crappy PAC... I’m not sure I agree the PAC doesn’t need to improve for our chances to improve. Maybe I missed your point

Lesson learned from this year: stable and early in the season blocking can screw us... badly. The issue here for winter weather this season is simple. Our source region had no time to build up cold and the PAC has a mean trough look. Pretty simple actually. There’s other side dishes in there but the meat and potatoes is there is no cold within 2000 miles to our N/NW. -5, -10 temp anomalies in central Canada have people saying “that’s cold enough for snow”. Well, yes. For them though, not for us. By the time that airmass were to reach us it would be modified and mixed to the degree that it would not support snow down here in the mid Atlantic. The only way to help fox our source region this late in the game would be a SSWE, or perhaps an EPO ridge and +NAO combo that allows cold to build back up for 4-5 weeks, then we hope for a cold March. It’s becoming pretty clear to me that any major snow chances might be a real outside chance (again) this year. I think we’ll probably luck into some times front that has some trailing energy to allow enough cold drainage for snow, but there’s a real chance that NOVA/DC metro gets blanked. Even if it does snow I bet we have surface temp galore problems not having any juice behind an artic high or even a modified front. Not feeling warm and fuzzy about our chances through foreseeable future. Maybe mid feb-March will produce.

Looks like a cutter I read what PSU posted about cold air or lack thereof. Good read and makes sense. There’s just no cold air anywhere to be found, and with a warming climate I feel like we need more help to get snow than 20-30 years ago. That said I do think we loose that crap PAC but how long does that take is the question. We’ve done this kick the can deal for a couple winters now

Light flurries in Arlington. Nice

Look at Seven Springs. Their residuals aren’t bad and it’s conveniently close to I-70.

That’s my b. I thought I selected smiley face. Internet mishap

I was kidding with you a bit too! Hence the smiley face. Truthfully. I like you Mappy. You’re cool

Wow, ok.

I think your view point is quite shortsighted and narrow. We don’t have to engage in a philosophical discussion (speaking of us specifically) that’s fine. But if constructive criticism rubs you the wrong way then that’s your prerogative. And again, i do think that you missed the point. It’s not clicking here or there, it’s how enforcement is applied. Additionally, by describing someone as a volunteer you’re implying that they’re providing there time, resources, etc for the benefits of others. Most would agree that’s general purpose of a volunteer. There are some really good red taggers on here. I always enjoy reading their insight. I hope my position doesn’t continue to bother you because you seem a little annoyed tbh.

Yes, very much my point. My other point is that moving posts is not a transparent process and it is applied sporadically. Being that we’re all proud weather geeks, we understand stats greater than the average Joe and could make a strong case (statistically speaking) that the application of the process is actually a “joke” in and of itself. Im all for some good ole fashion banter, I mean look at the New England sub-forum... they’re funny and banter mid-thread ALL of the time. They’re not moving posts at the same frequency as “Uptight Sally” or “Take it Easy Tom”, down here. It’s just simply over used, and in my opinion capability should never equally ability. Meaning, Just because you have the capability to do something, does not mean you should be able to that something, endlessly, with zero oversight. That’s an abuse of power. Not complicated. And a mod could say that there are checks and balances, but that’s like saying “we who made the rules, enforce the rules, and do not let anyone else participate in the above process, are totally fair and transparent.” Now more than ever in today’s world, we need people to own up to a fair and transparent process of how speech, and ultimately one’s viewpoints, are handled by those who have the issuing power to disseminate that information to the public. It may seem a silly point on a weather board but it’s not. It’s the seemingly “marginal” bits of freedom we give up a little at a time that go unnoticed, until one day you realize that isn’t TRULY free speech any longer. It really adds up fast too, those marginal concessions of “eh, who cares — it’s a weather board.” But small bits can add up quick. Take the case of the humble penny for instance... “If I gave you a penny on day one and each day thereafter I doubled that penny I gave you from the previous day. After thirty days how much money would I have given you?” It’s a lot

I’d prefer if moderators held their personal posts to the same standard they use to monitor member posts. Seems like sometimes there is a double standard. Like for example, randomly enforcing “banter” posts that wander off topic for a post or two, but then the mod turning around two pages later and going back and forth totally off-topic just because they can. It isn’t right, that’s all. And truthfully, it deters membership growth which is strategically critical to keeping a forum operational over the long-term. On the surface, I think that the practice of moving posts or hiding them does not appear to be both a)well articulated to members and b) applied with consistency. Furthermore, the practice is confrontational, completely subjective, and typically unilaterally enforced. Most would agree that’s no way to run an organization that values transparency and equitable treatment of its members. Alternatively, I think moderation inside of a thread (which I’ve seen you and others do) like, “move along” or “turn the page” is way less abrasive for the member and also demonstrates a higher degree of transparency. Additionally, it allows for more thread continuity while reading, and also reinforces that moderators are actively engaged in a process of evaluation that’s fair and transparent. Obviously, if a post is verbally offensive or in any way inappropriate, it should be addressed completely differently by the mods. Removing or hiding etc. I appreciate you acknowledging my viewpoint

Deleted and hiding is semantics. If it’s not up there then it’s being suppressed. Most be nice for you... hide, move posts at your discretion. Manipulate the narrative as you see fit. If you’re not in media you should think about it. You’d fit in perfectly.

Lie. it was originally deleted and you just moved here cause I called you out. Thats the truth. Own it

I love how posts disappear for calling mods Out for their own banter lol It’s hilarious how sensitive the hall monitors are In here to their own critiques they so willfully hand out to others. Deleted... not even moved to Banter! If something is not offensive or doesn’t use bad language then it should not be completed deleted. That’s un-American in every sense of the idea. The age of censorship... welcome my fellow Americans. eta: oh and @mappy since she is the by far and away the biggest banter accuser and simultaneous banter creator in the whole lot. Its actually impressive the lack of self awareness (incoming response about my lack of self awareness... beat you to it)

It’s called humor. Lighten up Uh oh she’s getting mad... Tea kettle starting to whistle Banter We all live in NOVA. Virtually all Bingo