PivotPoint

Thank god MN started this one... I feel the juju. I concede the se tick. Keep the ticks coming!

That’s the perfect way to put it. Charade is the right word. Some keeping acting like they don’t know how this plays out 15 out of 16 times. 95 crew and even a bit west with this one are probably capped at 6”. Thinking more like 2-4 zone but maybe it pops. Everyone should just head to Leesburg that day. Get some food. Relax. If you’re able

Yea, I kinda see it. And this might be too much parsing, but geeze I don’t think I would even call that a shift. I mean, the 0Z has colder temps to SW (albeit those look suspect, I agree). I dunno. Maybe it’s a tick colder. You’re right.

Eskimo beat me to it.. but I was going to say that if look caddy corner to the sounding the best lift is below the dgz and you’re right, it’s not horrendous but with air temps in the mid thirties and mixed precipitation... yoda, you know that doesn’t work in or near the city. Come on. Thanks. And I agree. Also hoping for greater dynamic cooling with rates as ccb gears up and column cools top down to move that dgz up. I was kinda kidding but tbh, I fee like I’ve had a good wrap on this since Friday afternoon. At least best guess Yea, I was kinda kidding but cool to see how years of lurking and learning gives me some confidence when I see mets show ideas similar to mine. Makes thae fact that I’m gonna get. A mixed bag of snow, sleet and rain a little more tenable.

By the way to reference my post from two days ago. My snowfall predictions That I posted are almost verbatim what most good Mets are squeaking today... I feel like I’ve nailed this one. Hope I’m wrong: dc - arlington - McLean 2-6” great falls, va - Leesburg 6-12” Bluemont - Winchester 12-16” west of Winchester, mountains, parts of central pa 14-22”

Funny I’ve always found them to verify well for marginal setups in nova. They’re typically underdone however when temps are more cooperative. Too me snowfall maps are the notoriously bad ones. Yea, but sounding is way to go... This is when it’s suppose to be money time and it’s pouring snow in Winchester. Not here unfortunately

Could you post a map of what you’re seeing. I honestly do not see a marked difference between the two runs. Certainly done see a 25-30 mile SE move. Thanks What’s edging SE though? Temps at 925/850 are virtually identical. I don’t see this as an improvement 3 days out. It’s pretty consistent actually. Again, you’re right rt15 on west is certainly the spot. I’ve felt that way as well. Unfortunately location for me is Arlington

No man. 0Z euro and 6z gfs are trending significant my worse for 95 crew. I use snow depth maps instead of snowfall, which most don’t want to look at but are way more realistic especially for cities. Plain truth is warm layers are farther west. Dca went from 9.9” to 2.4”. One op run but I can’t see how this isn’t worse. Ens are still good but like I’ve said for past couple of days. This will eventually shift more west and this is not surprising, and is not great (no sugar coat) for even those 10-15 miles WEST of the belt way. Great being relative, of course 6z 0Z

Little after the party snow showers too on GFS. How amazing would that be... drops a foot of snow then later next day a couple snow showers roll through for a quick .25” on top. Stuff of dreams

Add Seven Springs: 10-16”, 10% chance 20”+

Lol. There will NOT be snow on the ground in dc for Xmas... at least not the remainder of weds storm. Perhaps another storm. I think we should be careful in describing 6-12 “area wide”. I think the models are a trying to show some of the first red flags for 95 crew. By my count, there’s a considerable more amount of (almost) whiffs on the 18z eps. I think the amped NE hp and PNA might be coming back to earth a bit. I do not see us just “needed to 2 more degrees” for area wide 12”+. I think there’s a strong case that actually goes the other way actually. We’ll see but my wag is 0Z euro holds course from 12z, with just a touch warmer at 850/925 and we all argue about the granularity of this revelation.

Exactly. My expectation for dc has never been over 6”. No matter which juiced model I watch. It’s just not a solid setup for 95. Just isn’t.

I feel like a west jog is almost inevitable given the modeled NE hp ever so slightly retreating over past two runs and PNA (again) just not quite as pumped as prior runs. We cant forget how MUCH we really need to go right in the mid-Atlantic (especially 95 crew) to get a 12”+ storm. It sucks actually. Total crap! Eta: the total crap was not a jab at all by the way. Came out naturally lol

Unfortunately, all too common. My call 2 days ago is still intact — 2-6” 95 crew. Winchester and mountains demolished. Not being Debbie downer (and it will flip flop) but this is the most likely outcome. Doesn’t matter for me — I’ll be surfing pow at 7springs or enjoying our anomalous foot here. Happy either way.

By the way, not that the Para has a handle but its decently warmer at 850 for 95 crew. Hoping the Euro ticks colder. Need that HP to sit a little snugger.

Little mixy for most east of winchester. NY gets crushed. The low fully matures and mixing disappears as the low hits 40north .

100%. That was crazy accurate... it was like: just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. (every model run)

Incorrect. Ensembles are not deterministic guidance, which are the individual op runs you're interpreting to be all or nothing, or individual members of the ensemble package designed to show degrees of variance eventually translating to a mean. Now, the ensembles do become less descriptive (in a sense) as you approach the event's starting point because the degree to which the synoptic set up varies, is greatly reduced as it greatly correlated to its time variable, i.e. as time to event decreases, synoptic variables become more certain. Hence using deterministic guidance -- op runs. Ensembles 4-5 days out and using a mean to determine general themes is quite useful. ^ Run on thought... but thats the best way I can put it, as I understand it. A red tagger could be more eloquent with the phrasing.

That's a great looking ens mean

Canada's on board. Moved away a bit from the amped solutions over past 24hr, but tbh it has had the overall H5 a little better than Euro and GFS did 24hrs ago, imo. See if that holds. It seems when we have stable blocking (relative) the models do much better in that 4-7 day time frame. Run-run consistency seems high. Haven't seen that since 2016 HECS -- during winter at least. Of concern are the 2m temps here, per the 12z GFS during the height of the storm weds. However, given the time of year and other dynamics this storm will likely produce, it is possible most if not all DC stays vast majority frozen. Parts SE always struggle even in perfect setups

Wow, ok.

I think your view point is quite shortsighted and narrow. We don’t have to engage in a philosophical discussion (speaking of us specifically) that’s fine. But if constructive criticism rubs you the wrong way then that’s your prerogative. And again, i do think that you missed the point. It’s not clicking here or there, it’s how enforcement is applied. Additionally, by describing someone as a volunteer you’re implying that they’re providing there time, resources, etc for the benefits of others. Most would agree that’s general purpose of a volunteer. There are some really good red taggers on here. I always enjoy reading their insight. I hope my position doesn’t continue to bother you because you seem a little annoyed tbh.

Yes, very much my point. My other point is that moving posts is not a transparent process and it is applied sporadically. Being that we’re all proud weather geeks, we understand stats greater than the average Joe and could make a strong case (statistically speaking) that the application of the process is actually a “joke” in and of itself. Im all for some good ole fashion banter, I mean look at the New England sub-forum... they’re funny and banter mid-thread ALL of the time. They’re not moving posts at the same frequency as “Uptight Sally” or “Take it Easy Tom”, down here. It’s just simply over used, and in my opinion capability should never equally ability. Meaning, Just because you have the capability to do something, does not mean you should be able to that something, endlessly, with zero oversight. That’s an abuse of power. Not complicated. And a mod could say that there are checks and balances, but that’s like saying “we who made the rules, enforce the rules, and do not let anyone else participate in the above process, are totally fair and transparent.” Now more than ever in today’s world, we need people to own up to a fair and transparent process of how speech, and ultimately one’s viewpoints, are handled by those who have the issuing power to disseminate that information to the public. It may seem a silly point on a weather board but it’s not. It’s the seemingly “marginal” bits of freedom we give up a little at a time that go unnoticed, until one day you realize that isn’t TRULY free speech any longer. It really adds up fast too, those marginal concessions of “eh, who cares — it’s a weather board.” But small bits can add up quick. Take the case of the humble penny for instance... “If I gave you a penny on day one and each day thereafter I doubled that penny I gave you from the previous day. After thirty days how much money would I have given you?” It’s a lot

I’d prefer if moderators held their personal posts to the same standard they use to monitor member posts. Seems like sometimes there is a double standard. Like for example, randomly enforcing “banter” posts that wander off topic for a post or two, but then the mod turning around two pages later and going back and forth totally off-topic just because they can. It isn’t right, that’s all. And truthfully, it deters membership growth which is strategically critical to keeping a forum operational over the long-term. On the surface, I think that the practice of moving posts or hiding them does not appear to be both a)well articulated to members and b) applied with consistency. Furthermore, the practice is confrontational, completely subjective, and typically unilaterally enforced. Most would agree that’s no way to run an organization that values transparency and equitable treatment of its members. Alternatively, I think moderation inside of a thread (which I’ve seen you and others do) like, “move along” or “turn the page” is way less abrasive for the member and also demonstrates a higher degree of transparency. Additionally, it allows for more thread continuity while reading, and also reinforces that moderators are actively engaged in a process of evaluation that’s fair and transparent. Obviously, if a post is verbally offensive or in any way inappropriate, it should be addressed completely differently by the mods. Removing or hiding etc. I appreciate you acknowledging my viewpoint

Snow... the great uniter of people. As some would say: “this is the most important hh gfs run of the year.” Lol