PivotPoint

I like where things are heading. Move gfs through time and the higher latitudes start to look in our favor. Combine that with a PNA that goes positive and a favorable Atlantic, I’ll take our chances late Jan-feb to score 1-2 solid events

I love that you live up there too. Stay there forever! Crushing now in McLean

Nice! 42 here in A-Town ballston

I was pretty confident that the cities would inevitably get screwed. Gfs has been pretty steady overall with not giving outrageous total from such a fast moving system. Now the low level warming trend as event approaches has started. DC is in for less than an inch but points NW will still see a little more.

Gfs looks meh. Has rgem bubble forming around dc. Warmer too by a smidge

My gut says dc gets good snow tv but blanked on tha accum department. McLean on NW and Rockville points west see 1-2. Hagerstown cashes in. Winchester down to snowshoe and valley gets the goods on this setup. Eitherway nice to be in the game. I’ve seen signs of PNA perhaps flipping and PAC jet finally slowing down a bit

Snowshoe is gonna get lit up. Nice

If we get 1-2” I’ll be estatic. Plus I work in Rockville and we all know the ROCKVILLE death band is real

Snowshoe is gonna get lit up. Nice

Nam for the win!! lol

I love how NOAA 10% chance is still <1". What a joke. I think given the current guidance since last night... it's pretty clear that over an inch (even slightly) is a 1 in 10 chance possibility, imo

Discussion thread... keep it clean!

This has the potential to rip a couple hours on the front end. It’ll be too warm for real accumulation but the omega for snow growth looks nice. Perhaps an inch to score a coup during the dark days

The problem with “searching” for changes beyond day 10, is that stable features always degrade quicker on models than what happens in reality. There’s a unrealistic expectation that any model can predict even macro level pattern evolutions. Never has been done. So my thoughts are a super strong WPAC ridge has to have an equally strong counter influence at some point to change its reload pattern. Which generally speaking is trough west coast/ridge east coast. That general look will not change until that ridge stops reloading imo

Yes, we can hope

Not sure I see that signal. -AO perhaps but no mechanism to bring that cold to EC. WPAC ridge remains strong on this

Trough in the west shows persistencey across most guidance. I saw this west coast trough and western pacific ridge early on in October and later in November. Thought to myself “that’s not a good direction”. Funny how these features can be hard to get rid of. Just like NAO blocking. Big pieces don’t always move so easily. Definitely thinking below avg snow fall this winter with avg to moderately above avg temps. Hoping we can pull off a couple -AO periods with PAC Jet settling down long enough to allow decent spacing for something to pop late January. Happy New Year

Any update on Stowe or Jay by chance would be greatly appreciated. Have they been mostly snow or are the getting the mix bag? Was thinking of making the hike up from VA but wanted to check with the local knowledge first. Thinking the upslope looks palatable perhaps through Thursday. Thanks guys... congrats on the snow (or frozen, at least)

These type of setups rarely break in our favor. They always look more robust 2-3 days in advance and then evaporate inside 24 hours. I think 95 corridor sees flakes with minimal stickage. NW sees up to 2”. We know this song and dance, unfortunately.

Understood. Thank you In the season of being thankful I’m thankful tracking something. And the Euro being semi onboard - for now.

Please elaborate kind sir

The overall strength and track of this next rainer coming our way will really set the stage for the cold shot thereafter. A more westerly track of this next system with a strong LP that cuts hard across the lakes would favor us (IMO) for high pressure dropping deeper into the central states thereafter. This would hopefully allow the retrieating HP more space and time to leave us with a solid CAD, in the event we get a strong enough shortwave to form in the first place. Im rooting for a strong system on this next one. Followed by deep dive of Hp into the plains and a shortwave that rides the boundary as the HP retreats to our NE. 2-5in with mix would be fantastic.

Storm mode. Stay on topic Rain suckssss

Lol at CMC we finish out the season with a foot as NYC collects 2+ feet to finish with a becs I (and ji) would not stand for that

Thanks Man, so close