PivotPoint

Lol. I was like “really. Come on man.” He’s not wrong

That sounds right. Our resident (honorary) meteorologist @psuhoffman could probably confirm.

Too many GL lows on that plot. That’s the issue (right now) as well with the day 9-12 time frame. Lots of northern stream action and lows hanging around the lakes. Does this happen with greater frequency due to the cross polar flow that is being modeled?

Good stuff man. Sounds pretty classic. Feel better soon brother. Then you gotta get back to those heavy DLs... 40 is the new 25! On a weather note, lol, check out this crazy map on TT. This is the time period I’m looking at right now. There is some potential for merging right here of the NS and SS. So close to a good storm look

I got tested Monday and got it. How you feeling so far. I felt a little not ok for about 2/3 days and now feel pretty good. Except I can’t taste or smell. Hope you recover soon. Don’t workout for awhile. Even a couple weeks thereafter. You’ll want to avoid myocarditis. My regiment has been lots of fresh squeezed juice (I have a juicer) tons of fresh ginger and lemon water. Tons. And the key vitamins suggested for specifically helping with covid. Zinc, d, and a quality multi. Also, eating minimal to limit inflammation and tons of water. Access to fresh air and I’ve been practicing light yoga and breathing for blood flow and some sort of cardiovascular work. Just very light. Hope it goes well for you. Again don’t work out. I know it’s hard. I was a former collegiate strength coach so yea, that parts rough

My fear about the upcoming “good” pattern is starting to seem a bit more substantiated at h5 on recent runs, as we move past the 15th. Lots of sw’s that shear ots under our block and fast flow coming off the eastern seaboard, IN to the Atlantic @psuhoffman thoughts?

Para has a slider day 11. It will totally be there next run too

Yea but not all -AOs are created the same. Even though it’s like multiple std dev negative the underlying cold is not what one would expect in an anomalous AO state. So it’s almost like who cares it’s negative. The AO is Luke warm to begin with this year

Thanks. Yea, so op is not really supported all that much. Still good to see a potential window though

Looks good. Would love to see the individual members for 12z ens

Thread title is the kiss of death. Sheesh

There’s some good points in there. I think one of the ones I find pertinent is the angle of PNA ridge and that lending to suppression. We’d ideally like that to have a more negative tilt to allow any sw that gets under us to gain latitude without the PNA punting is into a huge block and then OTS. Good points

Yes, flow into the Atlantic. Yea I understand all that. I thought close iso represented tighter pressure gradient this faster wind speeds. Either way, the orientation of the west to east trough seems flat off of the eastern seaboard. The analog composite you showed has that trough slightly sharper and with a more SE component. Small difference but I was saying if we were to fail, by that map, it would be because of suppression and lack of storm development due to the orientation of the trough and flow into the Atlantic. Just saying

Yea, I get that it’s a mean. Like I said. I probably didn’t articulate my point properly. Aren’t the iso bars on the 500mb flat and spaces closed together off the eastern seaboard. Wouldn’t that suggest fast flow (ISO’s being close together) and flat (the ISO’s angle is almost horizontal). Is that not suggestive of a faster and flatter flow off the Atlantic?

Bring it! People have been touting this frame as an ideal pattern. And it is a good look (if it happens) but that flow is fast coming off the Atlantic, and the look (verbatim) is more indicative of suppression. I’d like to see that ensemble mean hint at more blocked flow and not so progressive

Why would you wanna start sudfield?

Ridge axis not as important here as the storm makes its phase at our latitude under a strong block. We’re hoping that the block doesn’t suppress the SW. the ridge out west is flat but the confluence to the north makes it unlikely to cut. Normally for a GOM low that phases early, wed want the west coast ridge axis to be through Idaho for allow for enough spacing and deepening of the trough so that the NS and SS merge and form our KU. Anyone else want to add

This would be awesome news if we could indeed getting any stretch of +pna. We need some help in that department for our upcoming block

Now that’s a classic look. That PAC is just right. Still way out though Models always try and break down blocks to fast, once the blocking actually comes to fruition. Seen it tons of times I agree with this. I’ve been watching the trends in the GFS and it’s increasing mean H5 trough over the 6-10 day period. The troughs with each sw seem to dig deeper and cut just a little less each run. I actually wouldn’t be surprise if we start seeing some runs in next 1-2 days that pick up on a 5-7 day out evolution. Maybe a piece of trailing energy off one of these apps runners?

Well at least we’re all on the same page now! I like the progression of the west coast. And the extreme events up in the Aleutian/AK makes me feel that an extreme (hopefully) ku solution is a possibly even in a neutral/Nina-light background. I know the ku scenario has virtually nothing to do with crazy strength of storms rolling up in the northern lats, but still, very interesting Pretty cool. This is interesting

You summed up in two sentences what I couldn’t in like 4 posts lol. So above is exactly the argument I was making. 2m temps would lag behind a good upper air pattern. Why did you push back against what I was saying.. this was my point earlier

Fair enough: I went back and checked the PNA tele for past 60 days and you’re right, it’s more neutral to slightly positive than I had thought. I don’t think we’re arguing apples to oranges as you said, but I guess my focus for winter is always mid dec- mid March. After the spike in the PNA for our dec 9 storm, it’s been pretty flat since then to now trending negative over the next 5-7 days. My concern is everyone is saying “but look at day 10+” ridging and blocking. Great, I think we all have seen that exercise in futility with the day 10+ deal. Listen, if you recall I stared woofing for the dec storm on dec 1 because I saw transient ridging in the NAO domain and a ridge forming out west as the GOA low migrated poleward. I said then I liked the day 7-10 period. I didn’t get hit but a lot did. And it was great. So, not just nay saying. I bark when I see things. Maybe you’re seeing it sooner, thus, congrats. I’d like to see the PAC better in the day 7 timeframe to feel better about our future block eta: apologies, got my dates confused: dec 17 storm and started discussing it on the 9th

This is a good point. I am looking a little more medium range as anything beyond the day 10 period is just pureeee speculation. You can have hints here and there but mostly confirmation bias if it actually turns out to be correct. I do think that we see some PAC help simply because troughs out west don’t last forever. However, I’ll say it again, surface temps could become an issue for us closer into the city (as they always are) but as a finance guy, I would be hedging my bet against temps being cooperative. I would argue there’s a greater chance we DO get upper air to look right but the surface struggles (even more so than we usually do) just my wag Nobody has mentioned a major arctic outbreak or even calling/asking for that. I do think though that given our “new” base state for background temp that seeing +5 anomalies in our source makes me (dc and se) feel EVEN worse about our snow chances then I usually do. But I hope PSU and Cape et. al are right and the blocking overcomes this marginal temp look of the northern lats I tend to agree here. Marginal for leesburg on west means we mix the ENTIRE TIME, instead of the usual 70/30 snow to snizzle ratio we get for most mil a’s or overrunning will flip sooner, etc A model run 13-14 days from now. You have a better chance of guessing a number 1-100 that I’m thinking of right now then that look coming to fruition as depicted, lol As long as there are small improvement improvements out west over next 6-10 days then the blocking has a chance to help. But I’m not looking at 12+ days out into fairytale land.

Correct, I was referring to this...the day 5-10 time frame where there is a trough extending from the N. PAC through AK and down through west coast. I would think we would want ridging there that extends up and over AK/BC. And to your point yes, La Niña would need blocking based off the fast pacific flow and west coast trough that’s more indicative of a cold enso. But my point was not a) completely do away with all ideas of blocking, and b) allow those cold anomalies you see diving down the west coast to move eastward to central Canada. We would not see cold out here, correct. Not a good winter storm look but would (in my mind) possibly set the stage for more cold out breaks if blocking reloads and there is evidence to suggest blocking (once stable) can wax and wane

We’ve had easy based -NAO. And it’s kind of muddled because yes it is an extension of the WAR but it’s hard to tell if it’s all an extension of the WAR or not. Yes though, the west based blocking is still modeled out in time so patience is a must